THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 13 OCTOBER 1973

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005993956
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: October 13, 1973

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_ ,
The President's Daily Brief
13 October 1973
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. I I 652
exemption category 513(1).(2),(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
13 October 1973
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
The Israelis are making hard-won advances in the
Golan Heights and in their efforts to penetrate
deeper into Syria. There has been little action in
the Sinai. (Page 1)
Soviet airborne divisions apparently hal'7e gone on
alert because of the Arab-Israeli war.
Soviet
Israel. (Page 4)
US
The Thai Government is running scared as unrest
sparked by student demonstrations has grown. (Page 5)
Rice stocks are dangerously low in Phnom Penh and
there is some fear that the capital is on the verge
of food riots like those in September 1972. (Page 8)
The Italian decision to limit exports of heating oil
could effect US imports. Other West European coun-
tries may also seek to impose controls on petroleum
exports because of shortages caused by the Arab-
Israeli war. (Page 7)
West Germany plans to offer subsidized credits to
Poland in an effort to breathe new life into Ostpol-
itik. (Page 8)
A note on nervousness among Lao military leaders as
Pathet Lao troops begin to move into Vientiane ap-
pears on Page 9.
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554E96 10-73 CIA
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
ARAB STATES - ISRAEL
As the fighting on the Golan Heights died down
last night, Israeli forces were about 12 miles beyond
the cease-fire line, but were unable to achieve a
decisive breakthrough on the road to Damascus. In
the southern sector of the Heights, the Syrians claim
to have made some advances. The Syrians are reportedly
withdrawing tank units from the front and deploying
them to a defense line nearer Damascus. For the first
time, Damascus has acknowledged publicly that Israeli
troops have made progress on the "war's northern
front." The Israeli Air Force conducted more than
400 sorties yesterday, the largest number in a single
day since the war began. Despite heavy losses in
dogfights, the Syrians continued throughout most of
the day to fly ground-support missions.
Activity on the Sinai front yesterday was limited
to artillery exchanges and a reduced number of Israeli
air strikes. Neither side claimed significant ad-
vances, and neither suffered serious losses. Early
yesterday the Israelis charged that the Egyptians had
moved four SAM batteries to the east side of the
canal, but they now believe that they are dummies.
the Egyptians mounted heli-
copter assaults at three points on the Sinai coast.
Soviet experts
have reviewed three areas--Port Said, Ismailia, and
Dumyat--as possible sites for surface-to-surface mis-
siles. The Israelis previously have reported that
Soviet SCUD SSMs have been sent to Egypt, but this
has not been corroborated by any other source.
After a week of fighting, Israeli losses are
estimated at 100-105 aircraft, 650-700 tanks, as
many as 4 ships, and 2,700-3,200 men. Arab losses
are estimated at 210-220 aircraft, 950-1,000 tanks, 25X1
20-25 ships, and 12,600-15,600 men.
(continued)
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
The movement to Syria of a Jordanian brigade
that was scheduled for tonight reportedly has been
postponed until Sunday night, when it is to take up
a position between Dar'a and Shaykh Miskin. There
may be further delays, however, because of opposi-
tion to the move from some high-level Jordanians.
The Saudi brigade that was to have
left for Syria on October 11 has encountered further
delays. King Husayn told Ambassador Brown yesterday
that the Saudis still have not crossed the border
into Jordan.
Fatah, the largest fedayeen organization, may
be preparing to attack US oil interests in the Middle
East. The attacks reportedly will occur if the US
supplies Israel with aircraft or involves the Sixth
Fleet in the hostilities. The Palestine Liberation
Organization last night accused Jordan of "actual
coordination" with Israel and called on the Jor-
danian Army to fight Israel even if it means the
downfall of King Husayn. The fedayeen continue to
carry out minor operations against Israel. Fifty-
five commandos had infiltrated Israel as of October
11.
Muhammad Haykal, chief editor of the authorita-
tive Egyptian newspaper Al Ahram, has joined in the
call for using oil as a weapon to bring pressure
against the US. Haykal warned in an Al Ahram article
that Arab oil producers have the power to "deny the
US access to its interests in the Middle East."
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
USSR - MIDDLE EAST
Soviet airborne divisions apparently have gone
on alert because of the war in the Middle East,
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
USSR - US - MIDDLE EAST
In discussions with Arab officials, ?the Soviet
leadership is playing down the possibility of direct
US intervention in behalf of Israel.
The Soviets are also going out of their way in
discussions with US officials to create the impres-
sion that the Arab-Israeli war should not be allowed
to endanger the "larger picture" of Soviet-US detente.
The Soviet ambassador in Paris, for example, told a
US military attache that it was important for the two
superpowers to remain friends and not permit the war
to alter the relationship developed over the past
year. Soviet military attaches in Finland and Algeria
on October 11 took a similar line with their US coun-
terparts.
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
RAILAU
Unrest sparked by the student demonstrations
has grown, and the government is running scared.
Responding to student threats to take to the streets
the government offered yesterday to release on bail
the 13 students and politicians whose arrest earlier
this week precipitated the campus demonstrations.
According to late press reports, the students have
flatly rejected the offer.
The government is also trying to cope with de-
mands that a new constitution be promulgated soon.
Deputy Prime Minister Praphat, who has been a staunch
opponent of parliamentary rule, has stated publicly
that work on the new constitution will be speeded up.
Thai leaders evidently hope that this concession
will satisfy the students' immediate demands and
deny the radicals a popular issue on which to build
support for more significant changes. The tactic
may not be successful.
Both the students and the government now face
a situation without clear historical precedent in
Thailand. The government clearly is at a loss about
how to cope with the more than 50,000 students who
are currently massed in Bangkok, as well as with the
thousands of demonstrators in other Thai cities.
There is a danger that inexperienced local officials
may lose their aplomb, and that the leadership's pa-
tience may wear thin if the situation drags on.
Evidence of support from prominent Thai officials
from within and without the government and from the
non-student population in Bangkok is likely to in-
crease the students' sense of euphoria. The fact
that money is being raised for the students even
within the bureaucracy is clear evidence of the ex-
tent to which criticism of the Thanom-Praphat leader-
ship has struck a responsive chord.
Cooler heads may yet prevail. Some influential
Thai newspapermen, who have supported the students,
are now urging compromise to avoid violence. The
students are not well organized and the great mass
of them may have little stomach for pushing the gov-
ernment too far. Even if the government muddles
through, however, the events of the past few days
are likely to have important repercussions. Thanom
and Praphat, who have ruled Thailand for a decade,
have lost some political standing. Some military
leaders, who have long felt that the two should move
aside, may feel the time is now right to press the
issue.
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
CAMBODIA
Rice stocks are dangerously low in Phnom Penh.
At current distribution rates, only about 12-days'
supply is now on hand. There is some apprehension
that the capital is on the verge of food riots like
those in September 1972.
The airlift of rice from Battambang to Phnom Penh
is bringing in only 20 percent of daily requirements.
Another airlift is scheduled to begin within the next
few days to transport small quantities of rice from
Kompong Chhnang and from ,Cambodian stocks in Saigon.
The South Vietnamese agreed last night to provide an
additional 5,000 tons of rice for early shipment to '
Phnom Penh. The next shipment of Thai rice is sched-
uled to arrive in Phnom Penh on October 22 via special
Mekong convoy. By that time government rice stocks
will have dwindled to less than seven-days' supply.
Timely imports to solve the Cambodians' rice
shortage have been difficult to obtain because of
tight world grain markets this year. The government
has contracted for an additional 25,000 tons of Thai
rice that should begin to arrive at the end of Octo-
ber. A contract for 20,000 tons of South Korean
rice was signed last week with shipment scheduled by
mid-November. These supplies will be essential to
cover Cambodia's needs until US PL-480 rice deliveries
begin in December.
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
WESTERN EUROPE
Rome moved this week to limit exports of heating
oil and kerosene in an effort to avoid domestic short-
ages. Last year Italy accounted for about 11 percent
of US imports of heating oil, or 1-2 percent of US
requirements. Exports to EC countries will not be
affected, but Rome is considering ways to assure that
exports to EC countries are not re-exported.
The decision apparently was not related to the
outbreak of the Arab-Israeli war. Petroleum short-
ages in Western Europe caused by the war, however,
could lead other West European countries to impose
controls. Western Europe's oil supply already has
been reduced by about 8 percent, or 1.3 million bar-
rels a day.
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
WEST GERMANY - POLAND - USSR
In an attempt to breathe new life into Ostpolitik
Bonn intends to offer subsidized credits to Poland.
The West German plan, publicly disclosed by a govern-
ment official earlier this week, is expected to win
cabinet approval before Foreign Minister Scheel visits
Warsaw in mid-October. The offer involves an untied
credit of more than $400 million.
The credit apparently will not be linked to any
specific project. Funds will be paid in several an-
nual installments, with the West German Government
providing a subsidy to bring the interest rate down
to about 6 percent.
The West Germans hope their offer will get
Scheel's talks in Poland off to a good start. They
?are particularly interested in persuading Warsaw to
allow an increase in the low rate of repatriation of
ethnic Germans. Although the Poles have never ex-
pressly linked progress on repatriation to West Ger-
man economic concessions, both sides see the connec-
tion as a fact of life.
Scheel will also go to the USSR early next month,
and Bonn has been weighing a response to Moscow's
persistent expressions of interest in West German
credits and industrial cooperation. The West Germans
are contemplating credits to the USSR linked to
specific projects. Their offer probably will not
fully satisfy the Soviets, who have pressed for co-
operation on mammoth ventures. Bonn hopes, however,
that even limited progress on economic matters will
improve the political mood.
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
NOTE
Laos: Lao military leaders have expressed con-
cern to US Embassy officers over the manner in which
the peace agreement is being implemented. Their
nervousness is probably due in part to the necessity
of accepting Pathet Lao troops in Vientiane. There
is no evidence that the military is seeking to upset
the political balance. The fact that the generals
have voiced their concern to US officials suggests
that they are, in fact, looking for assurances that
all will be well. Small incidents, however, can be-
come blown out of proportion during this delicate
period as Pathet Lao troops begin to move into
Vientiane.
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