THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 11 OCTOBER 1973

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005993954
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: October 11, 1973

_
?
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800010010-5
?
The President's Daily Brief
11 October 1973
4 5 25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800010010-5
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A01 1800010010-5
Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. I I 652
exemption category 5130 1.(2)(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800010010-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20: CIA-RDP79T00936A011800010010-5
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
11 October 1973
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
The USSR has apparently mounted a resupply effort to
Syria, and may extend it to Egypt./
/ (Page 1)
Neither the Arabs nor the Israelis made substantial
gains in combat yesterday. Fighting was most intense
in the Golan Heights. (Page 2)
At SALT the Soviets have tabled a draft permanent
agreement on limiting offensive arms. The proposal
mirrors most of the provisions of the Interim Agree-
ment, but adds limits on MIRVs and MRVs. (Page 4)
The communique following Tanaka's visit to the USSR
shows that there was no progress in resolving impor-
tant differences. (Page 5)
Moscow has told Sihanouk that it regards his govern-
ment as the "real" representative of the Cambodian
people. The initiative shows that the Soviets now
believe Sihanouk will play a major role in any future
settlement in Cambodia, and that they would like to
be in a position to influence the outcome. (Page 6)
The Soviets are continuing to peddle grain in South
Asia.
(Page 7)
In Turkey, the Justice Party is the front-runner in
the legislative elections scheduled for October 14.
(Page 8)
Notes on Chile and Panama appear on Page 9.
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800010010-5
25X1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800010010-5
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
USSR - MIDDLE EAST
Moscow apparently has mounted a resupply effort
to Syria, and may extend it to Egypt.
Moscow's decision to cast its lot more fully on
the side of the Arabs is probably due in part to the
relatively good showing of the Arab forces. In addi-
tion, Moscow--sensing growing Arab support for Egypt
and Syria--may have decided that a practical demon-
stration of support is necessary to protect its posi-
tion in the Middle East.
The Soviets will try, however, to prevent this
involvement on the Arab side from damaging relations
with the US. They also know that a resupply operation
at this time carries the risk of Israeli counteraction.
The Israelis are aware of the Soviet flights and
could seek to strike at the airfields they are using.
Some Soviet flights were diverted to an alternate
Syrian field yesterday, possibly because of Israeli
air activity.
Three Soviet surface combatants--a cruiser and
two destroyers--entered the Mediterranean from the
Black Sea yesterday. They had been scheduled to do
so for some time as part of the routine rotation of
Mediterranean Squadron ships. They now may be added
to the bulk of the Squadron which remains in the
vicinity of Crete.
1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800010010-5
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X125X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800010010-5
Cyprus
atakia
Israeli bombing
Tartus
Lebanon
BEIRUT
Syria
DAMASCUS
Israeli bombing
) ,GDLAN
141EIGHTS
1:;1A1 Qunaytirah
Mediterranean Sea
Tel Aviv-Yafo .
CAIRO
5 4.....p.:9?rt
Gaze Stop/// / .
Dead Sea.
?"ri l
\ Israel.
1
ti?
iv ,ce9.-4-...4-,,,v.--;fr 0,, t ? .1 or d a n
Ismailia up7to u- kilometer
i
if
il
A
\ ti
1,i ? , ?
Elat 4
S'
Guff
of
Suez
Saudi Arabia
554682 10-73 CIA
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800010010-5
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20: CIA-RDP79T00936A011800010010-5 ?
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
ARAB STATES - ISRAEL
Neither side made substantial gains yesterday.
There was heavy fighting along the 1967 cease-
fire line in the Golan Heights. The Israelis made
modest advances on the ground and apparently now con-
trol Qunaytirah. Israeli planes flew more than 300
sorties against Syrian targets, including the ports
of Latakia and Tartus, the interior city of Hims,
and Damascus international airport.
The Egyptians continue to use bridges across
the Suez Canal to reinforce their forces in the
Sinai. They have moved their lines 20 kilometers
east of the canal, but have not yet launched a drive
southeast toward the mountain passes. Israeli forces
have not mounted a serious counterattack; they may be
awaiting reinforcements from the Golan front. Fight-
ing in the air over the Sinai was lighter than in the
north. The Egyptian Air Force is generally sitting
tight, apparently waiting for Israel to counterattack
in strength.
In a televised speech late yesterday aimed at
reassuring the Israeli populace, Prime Minister Meir
claimed control of the Golan Heights, and said that
settlers were returning to their homes there. She
added that Israeli forces in the south are now
"standing very close to the canal." She predicted
eventual victory, but stressed that difficulties lie
ahead. Mrs. Meir pointedly warned Jordan to stay
out of the fighting.
King Husayn remains under
to enter the war, however
intense Arab pressure
The King again stressed
to the US ambassador last night that only a cease-
fire in place could keep Jordan from becoming di-
rectly involved in the fighting.
(continued)
2
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800010010-5
25X1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20: CIA-RDP79T00936A011800010010-5
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Baghdad radio yesterday appealed to all Arab
states to halt oil exports to the US, but Egypt and
Syria thus far have avoided taking this line. The
hostilities are indirectly restricting exports, how-
ever. An oil terminal in Syria has been closed, and
Aramco's tapline, which carries crude oil from Saudi
Arabia through the Golan Heights to the Mediterranean
coast, is reportedly running at half capacity, in part
because of the prospect of reduced international
shipping near the war zone. These developments al-
ready have caused a modest cutback in the flow of
oil to Western Europe.
Libya reportedly has claimed "full sovereignty"
over the Gulf of Sirte, and has warned that it will
permit no ship to enter that large body of water
along its central coast without special permission.
The Libyans are probably reacting to reported move-
ments of the US Sixth Fleet and to recent press
speculation concerning alleged US plans to take over
Libyan oil fields. Most of Libya's important oil
terminals are located at the port of Sirte.
3
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800010010-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20: CIA-RDP79T00936A-011800010010-5
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
SALT
In their first major move since SALT TWO began
last November, the Soviets on Tuesday tabled a draft
permanent agreement on limiting strategic offensive
arms. The draft mirrors most of the provisions of
the Interim Agreement, including the asymmetrical
limitations on ICBMs and SLBMs, but also adds limits
on MIRVs and MRVs, and on other strategic systems.
The most notable aspect of the Soviet proposal
is the attempt to deal with multiple warheads. The
draft would limit multiple re-entry vehicles on
ICBMs and SLBMs to a number not exceeding "the agreed
portion" of the total numbers of strategic missiles
allowed each side. The wording is ambiguous, but it
suggests that under the Soviet plan the total number
of launchers on which multiple warheads would be
permitted would not be the same for each side.
Alternatively, although less likely, the "agreed
portion" formulation may be an attempt to deal with
the difficulty of setting exactly equal limits on
missiles with multiple warheads, given the differing
force postures and capabilities of the two sides.
Semenov promised to elaborate on various aspects of
the new proposal, and our delegation is seeking clar-
ification.
4
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800010010-5
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20: CIA-RDP79T00936A011800010010-5
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
USSR-JAPAN
The tepid communique following Tanaka's visit
to the USSR shows that the two sides made no progress
in resolving important differences.
The statement reiterates that a peace treaty be-
tween the two countries would improve relations, but
does not even pretend that there was any significant
movement in that direction. It merely records that
the two sides discussed a treaty and will do so again
next year, indicating that there was no meeting of
the minds on the main issue blocking it--Tokyo's
claims to several Soviet-occupied islands north of
Hokkaido. Before leaving the USSR yesterday, Tanaka
stated at a press conference that the lack of progress
on a treaty "cannot help" Japanese-Soviet relations.
The communique speaks of the need to increase
economic cooperation, including development of natural
resources in Siberia, but there is no specific mention
of any of the large projects under discussion and no
sign that the visit brought these closer to fruition.
Japan again made clear its lack of enthusiasm for
Moscow's vague plan for Asian collective security;
the joint statement avoids mentioning it.
On the positive side, the two countries were
able to list a series of minor agreements concluded
in connection with the visit. In addition, there
may be some validity to the communique's claim that
"frank" dialogue at the summit made a useful contri-
bution, if only because it afforded the opportunity
for a direct exchange of views. Brezhnev set the
tone earlier this week when he noted at a luncheon
for Tanaka that Soviet-Japanese differences cannot
be "solved with one stroke." The meager results
reflected in the final statement give added weight
to Brezhnev's remark.
5
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800010010-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936011800010010-5
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
USSR-CAMBODIA
Moscow has officially informed Prince Sihanouk
that it regards his government as the "real" repre-
sentative of the Cambodian people and that it has
instructed its delegation at the UN to behave accord-
ingly. The Soviet decision was conveyed to the Prince
in Peking by Ambassador Tolstikov on October 9 and
publicized by the Prince yesterday.
The Soviets have been edging closer to Sihanouk
since the Communist offensive this summer and Hanoi's
public reiteration of its support for the Prince.
Moscow's initiative indicates that the Soviets now
believe Sihanouk will play a major role in any future
settlement in Cambodia, and that they would like to
be able to influence the outcome. The timing of the
Soviet move may have been influenced by Secretary
Kissinger's planned visit to Peking.
The Soviets apparently made no promises to
Sihanouk about closing their embassy in Phnom Penh,
and in making his announcement about Soviet recogni-
tion, the Prince did not protest. The Soviet Embassy
currently is headed by a second secretary and is
smaller in size than at any time since March 1970.
6
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800010010-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800010010-5
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
USSR - SOUTH ASIA
The Soviets continue to peddle grain in South
Asia. Moscow's recent behavior contrasts with its
footdragging earlier this year in response to appeals
for grain from India and Bangladesh.
Meanwhile, Pakistan has asked the Soviets for a
"loan" of 300,000 tons of wheat to help replace losses
in the recent floods. Moscow may be willing to pro-
vide some of this, but will probably want to avoid
giving Pakistan more than the 200,000 tons of wheat
it gave Bangladesh last July.
7
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800010010-5
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20: CIA-RDP79T00936A-011800-010010-5
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
TURKEY
The conservative Justice Party is the front-runner
in the legislative elections scheduled for October 14,
but the left-of-center Republican Peoples Party is gain-
ing strength. The chief surprise of the campaign has
been the enthusiasm that Republican leader Ecevit has
generated among rural voters by stressing populist
themes. His party, founded by Ataturk and long led by
elder statesman Inonu, has generally been considered
an urban, elitist, and pro-military organization.
The Justice Party leader, former prime minister
Demirel, has conducted a lackluster campaign that has
emphasized his past efforts to promote stability and
to provide economic benefits for the peasantry.
Demirel has drawn small crowds even in traditional
Justice strongholds.
Recent polls by two leading Turkish newspapers
indicate that the Justice Party will receive less
than half of the vote and not gain a majority in the
National Assembly. This has led to speculation that
the party will be forced to form a coalition with the
Republicans and that new elections could be called as
early as next spring.
8
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800010010-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800010010-5
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
NOTES
Chile: The state of siege and curfew continue
in force a month after the coup. The armed forces
have begun to call up reservists and some retirees,
presumably to ease the burden on those on duty and
perhaps to fill some civilian posts. The junta has
asked the Uruguayan military for advice and assistance
in countering the guerrilla and terrorist activity
that it still expects.
Panama: The celebrations today marking the mil-
itary's fifth anniversary in power will again focus
attention on the canal dispute with the US. General
Torrijos would like to get the stalled negotiations
back on track, however, and he appears determined to
play the issue in low key and to prevent disturbances
during the festivities. Although the military has
taken extraordinary security measures, isolated inci-
dents could occur.
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800010010-5
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800010010-5
Top Secret
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800010010-5