THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 10 OCTOBER 1973

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005993953
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: October 10, 1973

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The President's Daily Brief
10 October 1973
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5B( I ),(2),(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
10 October 1973
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
There is bitter fighting on the Golan Heights and in
Sinai, and no sign that hostilities might end soon.
Instead, Arab rulers not yet directly involved in the
fighting are sending arms and men or are making plans
to do so. (Page 1)
Despite extravagant Soviet claims, livestock produc-
tion in the USSR is down since last year. (Page 3)
Although Zaire's President Mobutu likes to pose as a
leader of the so-called "nonaligned," he wishes to
remain on good terms with the US. (Page 4)
It appears almost certain that a serious rice short-
age will develop in South Vietnam, perhaps by next
month, and last until late January. (Page 5)
Reconstruction of North Vietnam's economy is proceed-
ing slowly, with most assistance coming from Commu-
nist governments. (Page 6)
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
ARAB STATES - ISRAEL
The Israelis have finally admitted giving up the
Bar Lev defense line along the Suez Canal and have
regrouped in the Sinai. They have not been able to
prevent the Egyptians from rebuilding bridges across
the canal and thus have failed to halt the resupply
and reinforcement of the Egyptian force on the east
bank.
Long after dark, hard fighting continued on the
Golan Heights, centering on a seesaw battle for the
town of Qunaytirah. The Israelis now appear to con-
trol the air over the Heights, and with air cover
have stabilized their positions along lines roughly
paralleling the pre-October cease-fire line.
After four days of fighting, total Israeli losses
exceed 80 aircraft, 600 tanks, and 1,000 men. The
Arabs have lost 140 aircraft, 650 tanks, and 6,000 to
7,000 men.
Israeli planes ranged far beyond the battlefields
yesterday, bombing Port Said and at least two airfields
in Egypt. Syria's capital, Damascus, was bombed for ?
the first time, as the Israelis struck at the Air
Force Headquarters, the Defense Ministry, and Army
Headquarters.. In the process, the Soviet Cultural
Center was hit,' giving rise to erroneous press reports
of substantial Soviet casualties. In fact, it appears
that no Soviet citizen was hurt in the raid. Other
planes hit a Syrian oil refinery at Hims.
As prospects for a lengthy war increase, the Is-
raeli Government is beginning to feel the sting of
public criticism for failing to launch a pre-emptive
attack and for failing to mobilize earlier than it
had. When the public learns of the extent of Israel's
losses in men and materiel, pressure for attacks deep
into Syria and Egypt might grow.
The US Embassy in Tel Aviv has reported that Fi-
nance Minister Sapir yesterday told a government com-
mittee that the war has already cost a billion dollars.
New taxes have been levied and the government is now
attempting to prepare thepeople for a long struggle.
Most of the Arab states are contributing troops
or planes to Egypt and Syria or are considering giving
such support. Contributions such as these are not of
great military importance but signify a growing--if
perhaps temporary--unity among the Arabs. Asa result,
both Jordan's King Husayn and President Franjiyah of
Lebanon are under increasing pressures to enter the
war.
(continued)
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
King Husayn last night pleaded again with the US
ambassador that the US work in the UN Security Council
for a simple, unconditional cease-fire. Husayn be-
lieves that Only a cease-fire can keep Jordan out of
the fighting. He is especially fearful that cOntinued
hostilities will prompt Saudi Arabia to enter the fray,
and should Jordan remain an observer, lead King Faysal
to end his critically important financial and diplo-
matic support :for Jordan.
The US Embassy in Beirut believes that Israel's
bombing of an inoperative Lebanese radar site yester-
day has hurt the government's efforts to stay out Of
the war and has removed any Lebanese incentive to re-
strain fedayeen guerrillas who have moved into the
area near Israel's border.
The Arab press has begun to criticize the US,
both for its stand at the UN and for the alleged
"menacing deployment of the Sixth Fleet." According
to press reports, Kuwait has called for an immediate
meeting of Arab petroleum ministers to discuss how
oil might be used as a weapon in the current conflict.
Palestinian media, but no Arab governments, have called
on the Arab states to halt the flow of oil to the West.
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
USSR
Soviet Agriculture Minister Polyansky told As-
sistant Secretary Brunthaver on October 3 that So-
viet livestock products this year will reach the
level originally intended under the five year plan.
Last December, feed supply shortages caused by last
year's poor harvest forced the Soviets to lower the
1973 goals for livestock products.
Polyansky's prognosis seems too optimistic.
Meat production, in particular, is running below
last year, and US Embassy officers recently found
meat unusually scarce in various parts of the USSR.
There may be some modest improvement soon, however.
A livestock count in July showed some expansion in
herds on state and collective farms despite the
tight feed situation. Per capita meat consumption
has gone up 10 percent in the past five years; it
is about 40 percent of that in the US.
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
ZAIRE
President Mobutu is a more self-assured leader
than when he last visited Washington three years ago.
His eight years in power have in fact given Zaire a
degree of political stability and economic prosperity
that stands in sharp contrast to the years of chaos
that followed Congo's independence in 1960.
As Mobutu's confidence has grown, so have his
pretensions to leadership in Africa. In pursuing
these ambitions, Mobutu has for example:
--become a more active -participant in the af-
fairs of the Organization of African Unity;,
--recognized the new "government" of Guinea-
Bissau declared by rebels in Portuguese Guinea;
--quietly increased assistance. to nationalist
.organizations fighting the Portuguese in Angola
and Mozambique.
Mobutu remains troubled, however, by the pic-
ture many have of him as being overly pro-US. As
a result, he has increasingly engaged ?in posturing
on nonaligned issues. His break with Israel last
week and earlier recognition of the Sihanouk govern-
ment reflect his desire to appear more independent.
Yet Mobutu wishes to remain on good terms with
the US and would like to see more private investment
in Zaire--currently about $60 million.
This preoccupation with his international image
has caused Mobutu to neglect some important social
and economic problems, however, which may eventually
cause him political problems. In addition, he has
yet to come up with a workable alternative to Bel-
gian managerial, technical, and marketing control
over Zaire's copper industry, which accounts for 85
percent of the country's income.
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
SOUTH VIETNAM
It appears almost certain that a serious shortage
of rice will develop, perhaps by next month, and could
last until the end of January when the present crop
will be harvested. Deliveries from the delta are in-
sufficient, and because of the late US harvest, PL-480
rice shipments from the US probably cannot be made
until Christmas at the earliest, instead of late No-
vember or early December, as planned. South Vietnam's
prospects for obtaining significant imports from
other sources over the next few months are slim be-
cause of the tight supply in the rest of the world.
According to the US Embassy, the Thieu govern-
ment is now privately predicting that, except in the
delta, rice stocks will run out by mid-December. The
government's projection is optimistic, however, be-
cause of heavy hoarding and speculation in recent
weeks. Unless a means is found to ship more rice from
the delta, stocks in the rest of the country could be
depleted by the middle of November. Stocks held by
some householders would then become the principal
food source.
Because of government controlsand increased
demand, a black market for rice has sprung up in
Saigon for the first time in several years. Prices
on this market are more than 50 percent above of
prices, which in turn are up about 60 percent
over the start of the year. On September 22 the gov-
ernment issued ration books to Saigon consumers,
limiting a family's monthly purchases at official
outlets to 20 kilograms. This is only about one
?third of average requirements.
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
NORTH VIETNAM
Reconstruction of North Vietnam's economy is
proceeding slowly. Hanoi is focusing its efforts on
restoring its industrial base, with assistance from
Communist governments. Thus far, however, only par-
tial operation has been achieved at a number of key
installations, and the country's electric power sys-
tem has only recovered slightly more than half its
capacity.
As a result, economic development projects
funded by foreign governments are lagging. Until
the industrial base is restored, there will also be
a shortage of managerial talent and skilled labor
that will hamper new projects funded with foreign
aid.
While the bulk of future assistance will come
from Communist states, prospects for free world eco-
nomic assistance have improved considerably since
Tokyo and Hanoi established diplomatic relations
last month. The Japanese Government is considering
granting the North $20 million to "balance" the $50
million it has already promised South Vietnam. Japan
is likely to become North Vietnam's principal non-
Communist aid donor. The Japanese are reluctant,
however, to undertake major development projects
while fighting continues in Indochina
Meanwhile, Sweden has done some preliminary
planning and survey work under terms of a $70-mil-
lion aid package granted last June.
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