THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 6 OCTOBER 1973

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005993950
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: October 6, 1973

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The President's Daily Brief
6 October 1973
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. I 1652
exemption category 513(1).(2).(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
LATE ITEM
Israel-Syria-Egypt.: Early this morning
Israe
information
from "good sources" that Egypt and Syria are plan-
ning a coordinated attack across the Suez Canal and
the Golan Heights before nightfall today. He said
that a partial mobilization of the Israeli Defense
Force is under way. We have no information that
would confirm the Israeli reports of an imminent
attack.
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THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
6 October 1973
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
Tension along Israel's borders with Egypt and Syria
has been heightened by a Soviet airlift that is in
its second day. Neither the Israelis nor the Arabs
seem bent on starting hostilities, but in this at-
mosphere the risk of clashes is greater than usual.
(Page 1)
Syria
Jordan. (Page 3)
The dollar remained steady on money markets this
week, but the European currency band is still vul-
nerable to a number of pressures. (Page 4)
Barring a weather disaster during the next three
weeks, the Soviets are likely to harvest over 200
million tons of grain. (Page 5)
West Germany's insistence that it has the right to
represent Berlin's institutions has caused a squabble
within the ruling coalition. (Page 6)
The Khmer Communists now hold most of the defense
line south of Phnom Penh. (Page 7)
There are notes on North Vietnamese
Chinese road building in Laos,
fedayeen , and Japanese moves
assure access to the world's oil and mineral re-
sources. (Page 8)
inductions,
to
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ISRAEL-EGYPT-SYRIA
Both the Israelis and the Arabs are becoming
increasingly concerned about their adversaries' mil-
itary activities, but neither side seems bent on
starting hostilities.
Four more IL-18s and two AN-22s, the Soviets' heaviest
military transport, flew to Damascus yesterday. In
addition a Soviet jet transport normally used for
VIPs made two round-trip flights to Cairo. The air-
lift continues today.
Most of these flights probably are being used
to evacuate Soviet dependents from Egypt and Syria.
the
Soviets began evacuating dependents of civilian
technicians from Egypt on October 3, and by October
5 about 1,000 had left. two rea- 25X1
sons for the evacuation: fear of an outbreak of
hostilities or a further deterioration of Soviet-
Egyptian relations. the 25X1
Soviets might be using the excuse of rising tensions
to reduce their presence without further annoying the
Egyptians. 25X1
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(continued)
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Syrian air activity appears to be normal. A
number of reports that Damascus is redeploying its
forces in the Golan Heights area
A military initiative at this time would make
little sense for either Cairo or Damascus. Another
round of hostilities would destroy Sadat's painstaking
efforts to invigorate Egypt's economy and run counter
to his attempts to bring the less militant, oil-rich
states into a united Arab front. Syria's cautious
President Asad appears braced for a possible second
blow from Israel rather than seeking revenge for his
recent loss of 13 MIGs to Israeli fighters. Damascus
radiobroadcasts reflect Syrian fears.
The Israelis' attitude apparently has changed
considerably since Monday when they, too, viewed the
activity in Egypt as normal and that in Syria as de-
fensive.
Nevertheless, the Syrians' fears could lead to
a mobilization of their defenses, which in turn could
alarm and galvanize the Israelis. Such a cycle of
action and reaction would increase the risk of mili-
tary clashes which neither side originally intended.
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JORDAN-SYRIA
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS
The dollar remained steady on fOreign exchange
markets this week, despite a fall in US interest
rates and the US announcement of a small trade defi-
cit in August. The European joint float also showed
little evidence Of strain.
A number of factors still threaten the European
currency band and money market stability. The Bundes-
bank's determination to continue its tight money
policy, for example, is a'source ofthe mark's strength
but at the same time leads to instability on European
currency markets. Tight money conditions in the Neth-
erlands have pushed the recently revalued guilder past
the mark to the top of the fragile European.currency
band, and have :had a similar effect on the market.
? Both the Swiss and the Belgians this week re-
moved charges on foreign-held deposits. The announce-
ments had little immediate effect on the market, but
in the long run speculation in their currencies could
become. more attractive. Meanwhile, Paris removed its
recently imposed restrictions on franc borrowing by
foreigners, thus making speculation against the franc
easier.
One danger, has subsided, however. At the meet-
ing of Commonwealth finance ministers this week,
member countries decided to maintain their sterling
deposits in London.. If these funds had been with-
drawn, as threatened last month, the resulting flood
of sterling on the market could easily have prompted
another currency crisis.
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USSR
Soviet grain trading officials told Assistant
Agriculture Secretary Brunthaver in Moscow on Tuesday
that the most recent estimate of the Soviet grain
crop was 192 million tons. Although this would be a
record--the 'previous high was 186 million in 1970--
they stressed that the quality would be low because
of wet harvesting weather. Brunthaver later met with
Agriculture Minister Polyanskiy and congratulated him
on the grain harvest. When told that Brezhnev had
termed it "massive," Polyanskiy appeared taken aback
and said that he "would not say that; it is still
too early." He too mentioned harvesting problems
caused by rain and snow and said that "we need two
or three weeks of very good weather to complete the
harvest."
Harvesting is roughly on schedule; about 89 per-
cent of the grain crop had been threshed by early
this week. Because of the expansion in sown area
this year, however, a larger than normal area remains
to be harvested--mostly in the Urals, Kazakhstan,
and West Siberia, where cold wet weather is causing
some harvest and quality losses. Earlier, in the
western USSR, rains also interrupted the harvest.
The weather during the growing season was gen-
erally favorable. Barring a disaster in the Urals
and eastern areas, we estimate that the Soviets are
likely to obtain over 200 million tons of grain,
exceeding their plan goal of 197 million tons. The
excessive moisture, however, will cause a larger
than normal discount to be applied when calculating
the net usable crop. Polyanskiy's main concern
seems to be the quality, rather than the quantity,
of the crop.
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WEST GERMANY
Herbert Wehner, parliamentary leader of West
Germany's Social Democratic Party, last week sur-
prised friend and foe alike with an interview in
Moscow characterizing as wrong Bonn's policy on
East-West issues centered on Berlin. He said that
West Germany had "overdone things a bit" by insist-
ing that Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Bulgaria rec-
ognize Bonn's right to represent West Berlin insti-
tutions as well as residents. This issue has dead-
locked the establishment of diplomatic relations
with these governments, which have Soviet backing
for their stand.
According to the US Embassy in Bonn, Wehner
now says that his dramatic interview was intended
to force Chancellor Brandt to exercise greater lead-
ership as head of the Social Democratic Party, He
objects to the fact that Brandt has given a greater
influence over foreign policy to Foreign Minister
Scheel, leader of the Free Democrats.
About all Wehner accomplished was to embarrass
Brandt, who had to defend Wehner. The Federal Gov-
ernment and the Soviets have been working on a com-
promise over the Berlin issue, and it is doubtful
that Wehner's statements will make any appreciable
difference in the way it comes out.
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PHNOM PEN
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PHNOM
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CAMBODIA
During the past week Khmer Communist forces have
forced the Cambodian Army out:of the area between
Routes 2 and.3 and now control most of the positions ,
that made up the capital city's southern defense
line. .Elements of the Cambodian Army's 1st and 2nd
Divisions still have a foothold in this sector south
of the Prek Thnaot River. Thus far, they have made .
:little progress in dislodging the insurgents from key
highway embankments, the only dry ground in the area.
The Communists have not significantly inCreased.
their strength along the southern front. Intercepted'
messages indicate that the attacks are being carried -
out by elements of two regiments that have been in
the area for some time. Even if these units are able
to eliminate the remaining government positions along
Route 2, swollen rivers and difficult terrain should
deter a major Communist thrust across the Prek Thnaot.
The Communists are in position to shell the southern
parts of Phnom Penh, however.
Route 4 remains closed 40 miles west of Phnom
Penh, and insurgent raids have kept road-bound gov-
ernment forces,off balance. Government troops on
Route 5 are still on the defensive but so far h'a've
managed to limit the insurgents to a seven-mile
stretch of highway above the garrison town of Sala
Lek Pram;
Government troops at Kompong Cham have broken
through light resistance to relieve a small fprce
that has been isolated for over a month at the city's
nearby airfield. A recent intercepted message shows
that insurgent morale is flagging and that the Com-
munist commander in the Kompong Cham area wants to
forego further large-scale operations against the
city until the dry season.
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? Government-held location
? Communist-held location
? Chinese-built road
Road
Trail
Miles 20
Chinese Road Network in Northwest Laos
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Bien
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NOTES
North Vietnam: The number of induction-related
messages in North Vietnamese civil communications
dropped sharply in September, according to a prelim-
inary NSA tally. The September total is 19, compared
with 106 in August. The drop tends to substantiate
indications in the North Vietnamese media that the
conscription drive which began in August tapered off
before the end of September.
China-Laos: A recent intercept indicated that
repair work on the Chinese-built road in the Phong
Saly area would begin on October 1. This is the
first reference to repair work since the recent end
of the monsoon, which caused unusually severe damage
to the roads this year.
Fedayeen:
Japan: The Japanese Export-Import Bank is
planning to double the funding of overseas petroleum
development and mineral resources in the fiscal year
beginning next April. About $1.1 billion--nearly a
third of the bank's budget--is earmarked for overseas
resource development, according to US Embassy sources.
At the same time the Japanese Foreign Ministry is
planning to station "oil attaches" in major oil pro-
ducing and consuming countries next year to gather
data on energy resources. It will also send fact-
finding missions to eight oil producing nations, in-
cluding the Persian Gulf countries, to identify areas
where Japan can assist in economic development.
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