THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 16 JUNE 1973

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005993851
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: June 16, 1973

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011600010065-7
The President's Daily Brief
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16 June 1973
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011600010065-7
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of ED. 11652
exemption category 58(11,0).0)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011600010065-7
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T60936A011600010065-7
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
16 June 1973
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
North Vietnam's limited military conscription effort
this spring suggests that Hanoi does not currently
envisage resumption of heavy fighting in the South,
at least until after early autumn. (Page 1)
The Lebanese Government is becoming less able to
control the fedayeen, in large part because of
Syrian machinations. (Page 2)
\USSR
/ (Page 4)
The West Europeans and Japanese are expressing con-
cern over the possibility of US export controls on
farm products. (Page 5)
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NORTH VIETNAM
Hanoi appears to have inducted an unusually
small number of men into the military in March,
April, and May. The total of conscription messages
the North Vietnamese passed over their civil commu-
nications network during those months was the lowest
since 1969, when they began a period of reduced mil-
itary activity.
Earlier reports from Hanoi indicated that re-
cruitment posters in the capital were being replaced
by signs urging men to join "reconstruction brigades."
The limited scope of this year's spring
recruitment suggests that Hanoi does not
currently envisage resuming heavy fighting
in the South, at least in the early part
of the next dry season. In the past, a
major spring recruitment drive has allowed
the North Vietnamese at least three months
to train the recruits before sending them
south in the fall when the dry season be-
gins.
A recent intercept indicates that a regu-
lar recruitment campaign will begin in
July, but in previous years this drive
has been less extensive than those held
in the spring.
1
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LEBANON
The government's ability to maintain the upper
hand with the fedayeen is diminishing. The most im-
portant reason is Syria's deliberate,effort to in-
fluence--if not dominate--Lebanese politics in order
to bring about a "closer alignment". with those of
Syria.
Syrian economic pressure, help to the fedayeen,
and threats of future measures against Lebanon have
emboldened Lebanese leftists and Sunni Muslims to
stir up domestic trouble for President Franjiyah.
A boycott of parliament on June 12 by Sunni Muslim
deputies--annoyed because they consider themselves
underrepresented in the government--forced the re-
signation of Prime Minister Hafiz two days later.
Though their discontent might ebb if they are given
the posts they covet, a danger remains that some of
them would line up with the fedayeen in the event of
another round of fighting.
The fedayeen, meanwhile, are fortifying their.
camps and receiving new stocks of arms and ammuni-
tion_smuggled from Syria. Fedayeen regulars and
militia now in Lebanon already outnumber the Leba-
nese Army,' and the imbalance would grow if Syria
were to resume the infiltration of well-trained re-
inforcements. The fedayeen are far behind the army
in firepower, morale, and organization, although
they are trying to improve their military coordina-
tion and discipline.
President Franjiyah and his advisers still
seem determined to enforce tighter controls
on the fedayeen, but the combination of
internal and external pressures could
drive them to compromise. They are dis-
mayed by the apathetic reaction of friendly
Arab states
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USSR
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USSR
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WESTERN EUROPE - JAPAN US
The West Europeans and the Japanese are begin-
ning ?to express concern over the President's indi-
cation that he may seek export controls on farm
products.
The EC Commissioner for Agriculture, Petrus
Lardinois, has expressed anxiety to the US mission
in Brussels about the effects of such restrictions
on world supplies. He also asked how such action
would affect the multilateral trade negotiations,
where the Europeans had expected the US to press
hard for improved access to foreign agricultural
markets. He said that Community members are now
likely to renew pressure for measures under the
Common Agricultural Policy to increase Community
production and alleviate the tight supply situation.
In particular, Lardinois expects a renewed French
request for a common agricultural policy for soy-
beans, with support mechanisms to encourage Euro-
pean, primarily French, production.
In Tokyo, government authorities expressed
"shock" at the US position. They noted bitterly
that they had recently encouraged a shift of Japa-
nese trade to the US rather than to other suppliers
as a way to cut down the US trade deficit with
Japan. They presumably fear that US supplies may
now be restricted.
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NOTES
South Vietnam: There has been continued fight-
ing in some areas after the beginning of the new
cease-fire, particularly in Kontum Province in the
highlands and Chuong Thien in the delta. This ac-
tion may be a spillover of earlier activity. The
upsurge of fighting immediately preceding the cease-
fire has not significantly changed either side's
control over territory or people.
Chile: Many striking copper workers have de-
fied government efforts to stop their march into
Santiago. Clashes involving opposition groups sup-
porting the strikers, extreme leftists, and the po-
lice are likely to continue. The armed forces in
Santiago were placed on full alert yesterday after-
noon.
6
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Top Secret
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