THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 25 MAY 1973

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005993832
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: May 25, 1973

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The President's Daily Brief
25 May 1973
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 51(1 ),(2).(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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EYES ONLY FOR THE PRESIDENT
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20505
May 25, 1973
CN, Crmut 'V cf-Nc. popcirwni-r
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EYES ONLY FOR THE PRESIDENT
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THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
25 May 1973
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
On Page 1 we appraise the outlook for Argentina
under the Peronists, Who return to power today with
Hector Campora's inauguration as president.
Many NATO members are increasingly skeptical about
Soviet intentions on proceeding with MBFR. (Page 3)
The Thai leadership has once again sidestepped the
succession issue by extending the military duties
of Prime Minister Thanom and his deputy. (Page 4)
Algeria's Boumediene shows growing concern over
Qadhafi's militancy and Libya's proposed merger
with Egypt. (Page 5)
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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ARGENTINA
The Peronists are returning to power today with more
moderate policies than those of 18 years ago, but
Peron's long-held nationalism and anti-US bias will
soon be evident.
Since he was elected president on March 11, Hector
Campora has steered a course of moderation in domes-
tic politics. He continues to woo the middle-class
Radical Party, Argentina's second largest, and ap-
parently still hopes to entice one or two Radicals
into his cabinet. He has been less forthcoming with
the armed forces but has made no deliberate moves to
antagonize them. In naming new commanders for the
three services, he will probably select from the
group of senior officers that the high command deems
eligible.
In the area of foreign policy and the treatment of
multi-national corporations, Campora has given
clearer guidance on his--and Peron's--intentions.
He has announced that the establishment of relations
with Cuba will be one of his first actions, and rec-
ognition of North Vietnam, North Korea, and East
Germany is likely to follow soon. The Peronists
can also be expected to move Argentina into the
forefront of those who want a reorganization of the
OAS that would exclude the US.
Both Campora and Peron have stated many times that
foreign investment is needed if Argentina is to make
significant economic progress. At the same time,
however, they have made it clear that new restric-
tions will be placed on profits and activities of
foreign businesses. US oil companies, banking in-
terests, and especially ITT may feel the pinch.
So far Campora has given no indication that he is
capable of acting independently of his mentor.
Peron, however, will probably try to leave domestic
policy and the day-to-day running of the government
to Campora and his associates. Peron's primary in-
terest seems to be in foreign policy and in pushing
for Latin American unity in nationalism and social-
ism. He seems intent on assuring his place in his-
tory as a true Latin American revolutionary. After
an initial period of consolidation, he may seek to
move Argentina toward more radical policies to give
this claim credibility.
(continued)
1
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The first real test of the new government's "revolu-
tionary" credentials may develop out of the action
of the Trotskyist Peoples Revolutionary Army in ex-
torting $1 million worth of supplies from the Ford
Motor Company. The Trotskyists probably will use
any official opposition to such moves as justifica-
tion for attacking the Peronists as they did the
military regime.
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MBFR-CSCE
Recent Soviet statements have added to the
doubts of many NATO members that Moscow is in ear-
nest about MBFR. They believe that the Soviets,
by insisting that force reduction talks cannot be-
gin until the security conference is ended, have
departed from an earlier understanding that the
first stage of CSCE should begin in late June and
MBFR in September or October. They contend that
unless a strong representation is made to Moscow
soon, the West will lose the leverage it has ob-
tained in MBFR by not letting CSCE advance too
rapidly.
The British have been particularly blunt. A
Foreign Office official says that Landon fears that
the US, in an attempt to get MBFR under way in Sep-
tember or October, might put pressure on its allies
to move through CSCE rapidly. He urges the US to
make it clear to the Soviets that ?their proposed
scheduling is unacceptable.
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THAILAND
The Thai leadership has extended for another
year the military duties of both Prime Minister
Thanom and his deputy, General Praphat, thereby
again sidestepping the potentially troublesome
succession issue.
Thanom's retention of his largely cere-
monial post as Supreme Commander of the
Armed Forces--this is his third extension--
is probably at the urging of Praphat. Had
Thanom stepped down, Praphat would have
moved up and would have been under heavy
pressure from the military to turn over
command of the army, which is his power
base, to his deputy and potential rival,
General Krit Sivara.
Thanom had already announced last January
that he intended to stay on as prime minis-
ter. His and Praphat's continuation in
their present roles ensures that Thailand's
attack on its most urgent problem?the
Communist-Zed insurgency--will not be
pressed vigorously and consistently.
The insurgency has been contained so far,
but its containment over the long run de-
pends largely on Bangkok's effectiveness
in solving fundamental economic problems.
The present leadership has shown little
interest in developing and implementing
long-range economic policies that could
undercut the insurgent potential.
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ALGERIA-LIBYA-TUNISIA
Prime Minister Boumediene has become increas-
ingly concerned about Middle East developments, par-
ticularly Qadhafi's militancy and Libya's proposed
merger with Egypt.
Boumediene remains committed to a sharply dif-
ferent ?course than that espoused by Qadhafi and
maintains that the individual Arab states should
each develop a strong, independent economic base
before directly challenging Israel. Qadhafi's con-
stant badgering of those Arabs who "neglect" the
struggle has irritated Boumediene, who believes the
struggle should be considered long-term and waged
mainly by means of guerrilla warfare.
Boumediene's concern over Qadhafi is driv-
ing Algeria closer to Tunisia, and Boume-
diene recently proposed a union between
the two countries. Although such a union
seems unlikely in the foreseeable future,
the two may consult more closely on com-
mon problems, including common responses
to problems created by Qadhafi.
Both Boumediene and Tunisian President
Bourguiba recognize Qadhafi's potential
for causing instability in the Maghreb,
and they believe that Libya's merger with
Egypt might entangle North Africa too
deeply in Middle East problems. They
also fear the extension of Egyptian in-
fluence westward at their own expense.
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NOTES
Australia: The Labor government hopes to gain
at least limited participation in the operation of
the US naval communications station at Northwest
Cape when talks on its status begin in Washington
on June 11. Northwest Cape is the only US defense
installation in Australia in which Canberra does
not participate. The government would like to have
some change well in hand before the Labor Party con-
ference in July in 'order to undercut an expected re-
newal of leftist pressure on the US bases question.
? Greece: An abortive plot by naval officers
discovered Wednesday is symptomatic of growing dis-
satisfaction within the armed forces. The government
states that retired and active officers planned to
take over three ships, sail them to sea and transmit
an ultimatum to Papadopoulos to resign.
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India: New Delhi reportedly has instructed its
embassy 17 Washington to place orders for 3 million
tons of US grain. It is now clear that this year's
harvest will be considerably below earlier expecta-
tions, /
/new purchases will not
have any early effect on the worsening food situation
in a number of Indian states. Civil disturbances
caused by insufficient grain in government ration
shops are likely to continue and possibly grow worse.
World Trade: At a meeting in Paris this week
of the OECD, the countries that will be going into
trade negotiations with the US later this year ap-
proved the general thrust of the US trade reform
bill.(
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Top Secret
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