THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 11 MAY 1973

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005993820
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: May 11, 1973

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The President's Daily Brief
11 May 1973
op
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5B( 11,( 21.(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
11 May 1973
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
The Lebanese Army is consolidating its control over
the fedayeen. (Page 1)
The Soviets launched another space station last
night and probably will send cosmonauts to man it.
(Page 2)
Emperor Haile Selassie can be expected to press for
more US military aid during his visit on May 15.
(Page 3)
Saudi Arabia
(Page 4)
A plenary session of MBFR negotiators will finally
take place Monday. (Page 5)
Australia's Prime Minister is looking past legisla-
tive problems to consolidating Labor's political
position in new elections. (Page 6)
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LEBANON-FEDAYEEN
The army and the fedayeen exchanged some fire
yesterday near the Syrian border, but in general
the fighting appears to be gradually tapering off.
President Franjiyah apparently believes his
army's strong performance enables him to be tough
with the guerrillas. His first priority
will be to disarm the
fedayeen in the refugee camps around Beirut. He
then would be willing to negotiate new arrangements
governing the guerrillas' presence in Lebanon.
Such arrangements would most likely in-
volve further restrictions on the feda-
yeen. The fedayeen, whose base of oper-
ations against Israel is limited to Leba-
non and Syria, will ask other Arab gov-
ernments to pressure Franjiyah into chang-
ing his mind. There does not appear to
have been any strong Arab pressure on the
Lebanese Government thus far, encouraging
Franjiyah to plan tough demands.
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USSR
The Soviets launched another Salyut space sta-
tion into near earth orbit last night.
If it performs properly during the next
two days, the Soviets probably will fol-
low with the launch of a Soyuz capsule to
transport cosmonauts to the space station.
There is still time to begin a manned mis-
sion before the US Skylab is launched
next week.
A Salyut space station launched in early
April exploded after two weeks in orbit.
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ETHIOPIA
Emperor Haile Selassie will probably press hard
for more US military aid during his visit on May 15.
He sees a mounting threat from neighboring Somalia,
which has received increased amounts of Soviet mili-
tary equipment and a large number of Soviet advisers
during the past two years. Mogadiscio has recently
reasserted its long-standing claim to Somali-inhab-
ited parts of Ethiopia.
The US Military Assistance Program for
this fiscal year will be about $3 million
below the $12 to $13 million of recent
years. The US Embassy has failed to con-
vince the Ethiopian Government that its
concern is overdrawn. The Soviet Union
may have recently given the Somalis two
IL-28 light jet bombers in addition to
the previous four, but there is no hard
evidence that they have provided the
MIG-21s or T-54 tanks necessary to sus-
tain an offensive.
The Ethiopians have already reinforced
their border and improved their counter-
insurgency capabilities. Their budget
suggests that they may be less worried
than they say; it holds the line on de-
fense spending, does not tap opportuni-
ties for domestic taxation, and does not
fully exploit the potential for borrowing.
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SAUDI ARABIA
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MBFR
Despite their lingering fears that the West
is conceding too much to the Soviets, the British
this week finally agreed to the North Atlantic Coun-
cil's acceptance of the Soviet position on Hungarian
participation in MBFR talks. This clears the way
for a plenary session on Monday to record the agree-
ment, which makes Hungary and seven other states
"special participants" or observers.
Each side will make it clear that disagreement
on Hungary's status remains. A Warsaw Pact state-
ment will imply that the question of Hungarian par-
ticipation is now fully settled, while the West will
record its intention to press later to include Hun-
gary in the final MBFR agreements The Eastern side
will also suggest that other European states not yet
involved in the talks, such as France, might be in-
vited to participate as observers.
Following the plenary, the negotiators in Vienna
will move on to consider the timing, location, and
agenda for the full MBFR talks. Present indications
are that the talks will begin in September or Octo-
ber in Vienna, but detailed discussion of the agenda
may not start until the talks begin. This timetable
may not hold, however, because some Soviet spokesmen
recently have suggested that the USSR will not agree
to a starting date for MBFR until a date is set for
opening the Conference on Security and Cooperation
in Europe.
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AUSTRALIA
Prime Minister Whitlam's ambitious legislative
program is in trouble. The first part, a labor bill,
has passed the House, but is headed for almost cer-
tain defeat in the opposition-controlled Senate, on
the grounds that it caters excessively to union in-
terests.
Whitlam looks on the labor bill as a test
case for the rest of his program. He has
implied that if it fails two readings, he
will dissolve parliament and call elec-
tions. The parliamentary process is a
long one, however, and no decisions will
be made until late this year or early 1974.
A gamble on new elections is bound to be
attractive to Whitlam. In the House the
Labor government has a solid majority of
nine that it is unlikely to lose in the
near term. In the Senate, Labor has 26
seats, the opposition Coalition 31 and
Independents 3. With only a relatively
moderate shift in votes, Labor could take
control of the Senate. If that were
achieved, Whitlam could move forward on
his domestic program and make other
changes, such as redistricting of constit-
uencies, ?that would put Labor in a strong
position in Australian politics for years.
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CHILE
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NOTES
West Germany: Bonn's new anti-inflationary
package announced yesterday lacks any direct meas-
ures to hold down prices and wages. The government
continues to shy away from price and wage freezes
and hopes to rely instead upon voluntary restraints.
The program appears unlikely to reduce inflation to
the desired goal of a 5.5-percent annual rate. In
fact, in the next few months, the cost of living
probably will accelerate above the 7.5-percent gain
of last month over April 1972.
International Monetary Developments: The dol-
lar continued its decline against most major cur-
rencies in light trading yesterday. The price of
gold continued its rapid rise, closing near $95 an
ounce.
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Top Secret
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