THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 10 MAY 1973

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005993819
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: May 10, 1973

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The President's Daily Brief
10 May 1973
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5B( I ),(2),(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
10 May 1973
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
Beirut was relatively quiet yesterday, and the Leba-
nese Government is cautiously optimistic. (Page 1)
Canada
// (Page 2)
Argentina's President Lanusse has declared he will
use force if necessary to guarantee the transfer of
power to the Peronists on May 25.. (Page 3)
Tito will not attend the important.Yugoslav party
conference that begins today; Stane Dolanc appears
to be the front-runner in the succession sweepstakes.
(Page 0
The dollar has come under significant pressure in
Europe for the first time since the European joint
float began; the joint float itself may soon develop
internal pressures. (Page. 5)
West Germany/
/ (Page 6)
Turkey's election last month of a compromise candi-
date after a 25-day presidential crisis signaled a
shift in the balance of power from the military
back to parliament. (Page 7)
Taiwan/
/ (Page 8)
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LEBANON-FEDAYEEN
Beirut was relatively quiet yesterday with only
some exchangesof fire. The air, strikes and artil-
lery fire on May 8 appear to have had a sobering ef-
fect on the guerrillas', and fedayeen-army joint com-
mittees have begun enforcing the cease-fire. There
were several fire-fights near the Syrian border, but
Lebanese air strikes and tank, fire hurt the guerril-
las and limited the fighting. -
The Lebanese Government is cautiously op-
timistic. It believes that the popular
support given President Franjiyah's tough
stand places it in a strong position vis-
a-vis the guerrillas.
Although still concerned about Syria's
intentions, Lebanon sees Damascus' present
involvement as limited and virtually pre-
dictable in view of the pressures within
the Syrian power structure for support of
the guerrillas. Since the fighting began,
Damascus has permitted an estimated 1,0007.
2,000 fedayeen to infiltrate into Lebanon,
but has not committed Surian regulars.
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Egyptian President Sadat sent a personal emis-
sary to Damascus yesterday to intercede in Lebanon's
behalf.
Cairo may fear that a Syrian move into
Lebanon would trigger Israeli military
action. This, in turn, would put strong
pressure on Egypt to assist its confedera-
tion partner.
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CANADA
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ARGENTINA
President Lanusse has declared he would use
"force of arms" if necessary to guarantee the trans-
fer of power to the Peronists on May 25. Lanusse
issued his warning after taking soundings among
high-ranking officers who are disturbed that president-
elect Campora will not take a firm public stance
against terrorism.
The majority of senior officers are still
committed to turning over the reins of
power as scheduled, even if only because
they agree that failure to do so could
spark civil strife on a scale too great
for the armed forces to handle.
There are, however, militant anti-Peronists
in the army and navy who would like to
seize on almost any excuse to abrogate the
election results. So far they have not
been able to convince many of their fel-
low officers of the wisdom or necessity
of that course.
The situation remains unstable, however,
as exemplified by the wavering among many
top officers after the recent assassina-
tion of Admiral Quijada. Further attacks
on leaders of the armed forces might
drive such waverers toward the militants
and jeopardize the orderly transfer of
power.
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YUGOSLAVIA
Tito will not attend the important Yugoslav
party conference that begins today. The Yugoslav
news agency announced yesterday that Tito will re-
main on vacation. The same article indicated that
party leaders have already agreed to re-elect Stane
Dolanc as secretary of the powerful party Executive
Bureau.
The intent of these announcements appears
to be to present Dolanc as the front-
runner in Yugoslavia's succession sweep-
stakes. Tito has never missed a party
conference before; his keynote addresses
over the years have set the tone for the
proceedings. In his absence, Dolanc will
have the spotlight, delivering the major
address. His position as the heir-
presumptive to the 81-year-old Tito will
be strengthened.
After this demonstration of confidence in
Dolanc, Tito may well pass some of his
party leadership duties to him as he has
done on the government side with Yugo-
slavia's collective presidency. It is
unlikely, however, that Tito will resign
the chairmanship of the party, a post he
has held for 36 years.
Dolanc apparently has been groomed by
Tito since 1969, when he was plucked from
an obscure post in Slovenia and suddenly
elevated to the party Executive Bureau.
He is much like Tito, a straight-talking
and no-nonsense individual, who believes
strongly in the federal system for Yugo-
slavia. Should he succeed Tito some day,
Dolanc would be likely to try to continue
Yugoslavia's "independent" posture, bal-
anced between East and West and striving
for leadership of the third world.
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS
The dollar has come under significant pressure
for the first time since the European joint float
began. The joint float itself may soon develop
internal pressures.
The mark has been principally in demand over
the last two days because traders anticipate new
action by Bonn to control inflation. Other European
currencies have appreciated at least partly in line
with the mark, and the independently floating pound,
bolstered by attractive British interest rates, has
reached its highest level since last June.
Both the mark and the. guilder will probably go
up more in coming weeks. Technical factors asso-
ciated with Bonn's reserve requirements on German
commercial banks will produce end-of-month mark
purchases. Amsterdam has canceled the surcharge
on non-resident deposits which has been a major
factor in the weakness of the guilder, currently
the weakest EC band currency. Any rapid apprecia-
tion by the mark or guilder would provide the first
major test for the joint float.
The free market price of gold has resumed its
rise, after almost a month of relative stability.
Contributing to the rise are the troubled currency
markets, political tension in the Middle East, and
reports of possible Soviet borrowing on the Euro-
dollar market, which would reduce Moscow's need to
sell gold.
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WEST GERMANY
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TURKEY
Last month's election of a compromise candidate after
a 25-day presidential crisis signaZed a shift in the
balance of power from the military back to parliament.
The victory for the civilians would not have been
possible had all of the military joined ranks behind
their candidate, Faruk GurZer. Justice Party leader
Demirel gambled that GurZer was not entirely popular
with his fellow officers and that the military was
too disunited to move against parliament if his can-
didacy were rejected.
The annual military promotion and assignment lists
published in August are likely to reflect the new
power alignment. Gurler's associates and anti-
parliamentarians should find themselves relegated
to non-jobs in isolated posts. General Turun, in
contrast, could become commander of the country's
ground forces.
The military remains one of Turkey's most powerful
pressure groups, but leaders now in the ascendant
show no disposition to embroil themselves in day-to-
day politics. Officers who forced Demirel out in
1971 because he failed to grapple with such problems
as terrorism and land reform have now retreated;
civilian government has won another chance to show
what it can do.
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NATIONALIST CHINA
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