THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 31 MARCH 1973

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005993785
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: March 31, 1973

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011500010080-1
The President's Daily Brief
31 March 1973
(e5
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Exempt from general
declassification scheduk of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5B( I ),12),(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
31 March 1973
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
Despite President Sadat's insistence to an American
journalist that Egypts military preparations should
be taken seriously, there are no indications that
Cairo has begun to prepare in earnest fora military
venture against IsraeL (Page 1)
The head of the Viet Cong delegation in Paris judges
that the Communists will'not be ready for elections
in the South for two years, (Page 2)
extensive construction
activity in the eastern USSR at three SS-11 ICBM
complexes. (Page 3)
Lao Prime Minister Souvanna Phouma is optimistic
that anew government can be formed by mid-April,
(Page 4)
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
EGYPT
For the benefit.of the US and his Arab
audience, President Sadat emphasized to
an American journalist Thursday that
Egypt's military preparations should be
taken seriously.
In an interview that will be published in
Newsweek, Sadat said he had "run out of ideas" and
that there was nothing to do but fight. He de-
clared that Egypt would be prepared to negotiate
directly with Israel but only after the battle had
begun.
Sadat stated that US "calculations" on pros-
pects for a Middle East settlement are incorrect
and warned that US interests in the area would
suffer from Washington's actions and policies. He
rejected alleged US demands that Cairo openly de-
clare its recognition of Israel's rights and that
Egypt make other concessions to Tel Aviv.
Sadat's militant tone reflects Cairo's
pessimism about prospects for a diplomatic
settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Current talk of "all-out confrontation"
is in large part intended to raise ap-
prehension in Washington and other Western
capitals in the hope of stimulating greater
diplomatic efforts. Egyptian officials
are disappointed that no concrete US in-
itiative has emerged. Reports that the
US has promised Israel additional hardware
have deepened Egyptian unhappiness and
have put Sadat on the defensive.
Egypt's rhetoric, however, is traditionally
more militant than its actions. Despite
such gestures as Sadat's assumption of the
poot of military governor general, there
are no indications that Egypt. has begun
seriously to prepare for a military ven-
ture against Israel.
1
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
The
VIETNAM
Viet Cong
will not be ready for elec-
tions in the South for two years.
North Vietnamese officials in Paris have also
been saying that the Viet Cong will have to be. given
more public attention, with emphasis on Viet Cong.-
"autonorny." They have implied that Viet Cong rep-
resentatives will engage in more international con-
tacts without the North Vietnamese holding their
hands.
These comments jibe with other recent in-
dications that the Communists are well
aware that their political position in
the South is weak and no match for Presi-
dent Thieu's political machine. Moreover,
the Communists probably have strong doubts
as to whether they and Saigon will ever
be able to agree to mutually acceptable
terms on holding elections. While they
will strive to improve their political
position in the South,
they also are building up their military
option and are saying that this may even-
tually be the only way to power.
2
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Soviets Begin Modernizing Deployed SS-11 Force
rsrer
tol
Derazhnya AYedrovo
A +=IN
MOSCOW # Kostroma
A *A A
A 4...E
Kozel'sk Teykovo ?Yurya
ICBM Complexes
? SS-7, SS-8
O SS-9
? ss-11
El SS-13
4???1 Location of new?
type silos
.-Perypmaysk
^ Yoshkar-Ola
,Perm
-411 ? Verkhnyaya Saida
? ?Tyumen'
Kartaly Shadrinsk
04.NI
Oombaroyskiy ? Omsk ltatka
? AGladkaya
Imeni Gastello 04.not Novosibirsk. 04"
Uzhur
l'atishchevo
.."Pela +mg
Tyuratam Nyssile
Test Center
?AleySk
ZhallgiZtObe 0
ASvobadnYy
Ornvyanaya A AOloyyannaya
RSA.17A ri
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USSR
extensive
tion activity in the eastern USSR at three
ICBM complexes--Svobodnyy, Drovyanaya, and
naya. The work began in January. Diaaina
seen at 22 launch sites,
similar activity at other SS-11 com-
plexes. There are no signs that the silos them-
selves have been altered yet.
At this point, it appears that the Soviets
intend either:
construc-
SS-11
Olovyan-
can be
--to replace the old SS-11 Mod 1 with the
new triple-warhead Mod 3 at these silos,
or
--to convert the silos to anew and harder
configuration, like the new small ones at
Tyuratam. In this case, either the Mod 3
or the SS-X-17--a new missile in the SS-11
class?could be deployed.
This activity is probably part of a wider
effort by the Soviets to improve the qual-
ity of their ICBMs during the term of the
SALT Interim Agreement. These improve-
ments will include new missiles, better
guidance systems, harder silos, and prob-
ably MIRVs. Evidence of MIRV development
is still lacking, however.
The Soviets have fired ten SS-11 missiles from
Svobodnyy and six from Drovyanaya during the past
four months, apparently in preparation for the mod-
ernization program.
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NOTE
Laos: Following his recent meeting with Pathet
Lao negotiator Phoune Sipraseuth, Prime Minister
Souvanna Phouma is optimistic that a new government
can be formed by mid-April. Phoune, who recently
returned from a short visit to the Communist head-
quarters near Sam Neua, brought with him a lengthy
draft agreement on political matters and a letter
from Communist leader Souphanouvong empowering
Phoune to negotiate the formation of anew govern-
ment. The two sides began discussions yesterday,
but much hard bargaining probably will be necessary
to reach agreement on the division of cabinet port-
folios.
4
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