THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 12 MARCH 1973

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005993768
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: March 12, 1973

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The President's Daily Brief
12 March 1973
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5B( I
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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The Soviets clearly will need to import
Western grain during 1973, even with normal
weather for the rest of the growing season.
This year's crop is off to a poor start.
The area sown to winter grains was a fifth less
than planned because of excessively dry soil,
and the crop has been exposed to above-normal
winterkill.
This
could grow considerably if:
--the spring sowing is below par
--the weather fails, or
--they stick to their original plan to in-
crease livestock products.
A deficit over five million tons will prob-
ably force the Soviets to buy US grain. Above
that figure dependence on US supplies will in-
crease rapidly.
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LATE ITEM
As of 5:30 AM (EST) returns from 90 percent of
the votes cast in the Argentine election show the
Peronist presidential candidate, Hector Campora, re-
ceiving more than 48 percent of the vote. His main
rival, Ricardo Balbin of the Radical Party is far
behind with about 21 percent.
The atmosphere at army headquarters is described
as tense. Some senior officers believe Campora can
achieve the necessary 50 percent that he needs to
win without a runoff election.
Military officers will reassess their po- 25X1
sition today after the count is completed.
there will be strong pressures on President
Lanusse to prevent the Peronists from tak-
ing power.
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THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
12 March 1973
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
Arab terrorists
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Six Common Market states agreed to a joint float of
their currencies yesterday. (Page 2)
President Pompidou's coalition has won a clear vic-
tory in the runoff elections in France. (Page 3)
The South Vietnamese Government and the Viet Cong
are preparing for protracted negotiations in Paris
beginning next Monday. (Page 5)
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ARAB TERRORISM
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS
Finance ministers of six EC states--West Ger-,
many, Prance, Denmark, Belgium, Luxembourg, and the
Netherlands--agreed yesterday to jointly float.
their currencies against the dollar as of 19 March.
Meanwhile, the participating six will create a $10-
billion common reserve fund to support the float.
Bonn will provide the bulk Of the.. fund. The EC
will present its plan at a meeting of industrial
nations in Paris on Friday.
Bonn announced last night a three-percent re-
valuation of the mark relative to its partners in
the float. This action, which also is to take effect
next Monday, probably paved the way for French par-
ticipation. Paris originally had demanded the par-
ticipation of the UK in the joint float in order to
prevent too rapid an appreciation of European cur-
rencies. Revaluation of the mark will help serve
the same purpose.
The UK, Ireland, and Italy, the other EC mem-
bers, already are floating their currencies and will
continue to do so independently. London's conditions
for entering the joint float were deemed too expen-
sive by the other Europeans. The ministers agreed,
however, to study ways to help the British, Irish,
and Italians, to participate.
Meanwhile, the Danish finance minister said he
expected Sweden, Finland, Norway, Austria, and Swit-
zerland to enter the joint float.
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FRANCE
Almost complete results give President Pom-
pidou's Gaullist coalition a clear victory in the
final round of parliamentary elections yesterday.
The governing coalition has 256 of the 490 seats,
and 46 percent of the votes. Pompidou can also
expect the votes of 15 independents who ran in
support of the coalition.
This means the coalition can continue to govern
alone, without the help of Reformists. The Reform-
ists have 28 seats and a good chance to pick up two
more, thus gaining the minimum necessary for the
status and privileges of a formal parliamentary
group.
The left alliance garnered only 181 seats,
even though it polled 46.8 percent of the votes.
This result was due to careful govern-
ment gerrymandering. Most leftist depu-
ties represent heavily populated urban
districts. The disappointing showing by
the leftists could cause the alliance to
fall apart, particularly if Socialist
leader Mitterand concludes that he must
change his strategy in preparation for
his 1976 presidential race against Pom-
pidou.
A heavy voter turnout, of over 80 percent helped
the government.
In France, leftists have frequently voted
in large numbers, while less disciplined
voters have not. Yesterday, the centrist
and uncommitted voters came out in force
to support the Gaullists and their part-
ners.
Such voters appeared to be responding to
the choice between "Marxist Communism and
freedom" posed by Pompidou on election
eve. In the same speech, Pompidou also
promised "bold social reforms" if his
government was returned, and the response
of the voters may indicate the depth of
popular discontent.
(continued)
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Pompidou will make measured changes.
Foreign Minister Schumann and Justice
Minister Pleven lost their seats in the
assembly and their cabinet status is in
doubt. Some Reformists may be brought
into the government to help dilute the
influence of hard-core Gaullists who
oppose domestic reforms.
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VIETNAM
The South Vietnamese Government and the Viet
Cong are preparing for difficult and protracted
negotiations in Paris beginning on 19 March.
President Thieu has told
his top negotiator, Nguyen Luu Vien, that he wants
the conference to arrange elections as called for
in the cease-fire agreement. Thieu believes, how-
ever, that the two sides will take decidedly dif-
ferent approaches to elections. The Communists
will be seeking to install,a new constituent as-
sembly and a new constitution through elections,
while the government will attempt to ensure that
any voting is held within the framework of the
present constitutional system.
Prospects for a quick resolution of
these basic differences are slim.
Serious problems may also arise concerning
the formation of the Council of National Reconcilia-
tion and Concord. According to Foreign Affairs
Minister Tran Van Lam, the government does not rec-
ognize the third segment of the council as a neu-
tralist or independent entity; rather, it believes
the council must be composed of an equal number of
pro-government and pro-Communist supporters. Lam
said that he and the main Viet Cong negotiator at
the preliminary talks in Paris had agreed on such
a decision, but that Madame Binh was said to have
been "very angry" when she heard about it and in-
sisted on the inclusion of independents.
Thieu has ordered the South Vietnamese delega-
tion to approach the talks in a spirit of reconcilia-
tion. The Viet Cong are to be treated as "younger
brothers" who have lost their way and are now being
brought back into the family. The delegation should
try to divide the Viet Cong from Hanoi by convincing
the Communists' delegation that the conferees are
"all South Vietnamese" and can work together without
the Northerners.
The Viet Cong evidently plan a similar strategy.
According to one of their officials in Paris, they
believe that differences between Washington and
Saigon can be exploited, and will do their best to
encourage frictions that could lead the US to with-
draw its aid from Saigon.
(continued)
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the Viet
Cong are somewhat discouraged about prospects for
gaining international recognition as a legitimate
"government" of Communist-held areas of South Viet-
nam. Moscow's opposition to Viet Cong representation
at the UN no doubt is a major source of such discour-
agement.
In South Vietnam, the Viet Cong are working t
back up their negotiators in Paris.
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lIn some areas, the Communists 25X1
plan to offer funds and equipment to help new settlers
make a living, and in other areas they plan to stress
land reform and redevelopment.
The magnitude and extent of resources the
Communists are putting into such efforts
are not yet apparent. Over the short run,
at least, the Viet Cong are not likely to
have the resources to develop a program
of sufficient scope to achieve much popular
impact.
the Communists are
trying?with some success--to get people to move into
their zones with an eye to future elections.
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NOTES
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Italy-USSR: Italian Communist Secretary-General
Berlinguer has arrived in Moscow for a discussion of
"party-to-party business" with the Soviets. One
likely topic is the effort of the Italian party in
recent months to promote close consultation and co-
ordination among the Communist parties of the Euro-
pean Communities. It is doubtful that the Soviets
would welcome-a regional grouping of Communist par-
ties, since it would tend to enhance their independ-
ence from Moscow. The Soviets probably also look
askance at Berlinguer's interest- in closer ties with
non-Communist parties of the left such as the West
German Social Democratic Party. Senior Kremlin
ideologist Suslov implied as much in his address to
the French Communist Party congress last December.
Japan-Peru: The state-owned Japanese Petroleum
Development Corporation has reached preliminary agree-
ment to lend $330 million for ?the construction of an
oil pipeline to link Peru's Amazon. basin fields with
the Pacific coast, according to the Peruvian Govern-
ment. Occidental Petroleum is jointly developing
the Amazon oil resources with the government-owned
? Petroperu, and several other US firms are exploring
for oil. The proposed loan is related to the Japa-
nese oil industry's effort to expand and broaden its
? sources of supply. Tokyo linked its recent _loans to
Indonesia with A long-term purchase commitment and
may want to do likewise in Peru.
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,
Top Secret
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