THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 16 DECEMBER 1972

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005993681
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: December 16, 1972

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The President's Daily Brief
16 December 1972
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 58( I ).(2).(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
16 December 1972 -
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
We have reports that the Communists plan to keep up
sapper raids around Saigon for several weeks and to
mount infantry attacks against facilities to the
northwest. (Page 1) Meanwhile President Thieu's
Democracy Party, intended to be his main political
vehicle against the Communists, is about to make
its public bow. (Page 2)
In Cambodia, we have some evidence that the Lon Nol
government is prepared to open political discussions
with the Khmer Communists. One unproductive contact
at the provincial level reportedly has already been
made. (Page 3)
A high Soviet official describes relations with
Egypt as normal "but without kisses." On Page 4
we appraise the current state of affairs between
Moscow and Cairo.
Pakistan
(Page 5)
Ugandan President Amin is scheduled to tell the
local British community on Monday of a "drastic
decision" concerning the British presence. (Page 6)
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SOUTH VIETNAM
Commu-
nists plan to continue low-cost sapper raids against
munitions storage facilities around Saigon for sev-
eral weeks. In addition, infantry forces will a,t-
tack important government facilities and population
centers northwest of the capital. Tay Ninh City,
the main administrative center in this area, is a
primary target. The Communists hope to take the
city and use it as a political headquarters.
Communist military units in this region
are not considered strong enough to in-
flict serious losses on the government
over the next few weeks. At best, they
are capable of continuing artillery fire
and sapper raids against a wide variety
of targets, and they could possibly over-
run some smaller population centers.
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SOUTH VIETNAM
President Thieu's Democracy Party, intended to
be his main political vehicle for countering the
Communists, is about to make its public bow. Sena-
tor Nguyen Van Ngai, one of the party's chief organ-
izers, has informed US Embassy officers that prov-
ince-level chapters will begin holding inaugural
ceremonies this weekend. Such ceremonies will con-
tinue until February, when a national party conven-
tion will be held.
The Democracy Party seems designed more
to strengthen Thieu's position with groups
already sympathetic to the government
than to broaden his popular support. Re-
cruiters have been active for more than
a year, chiefly among civilian officials
and military officers throughout the coun-
try. Although many high-level military
officers have joined, several senior com-
manders reportedly have refused because
they believe that the military should
not be oriented toward any party.
Leaders of some of the country's estab-
lished parties are concerned over the
inroads that Thieu's party is making
among their own supporters. Many of
these politicians probably would be re-
ceptive to cooperating with or even merg-
ing into the Democracy Party if Thieu
would give them a significant role. Thus
far, however, the President and his
lieutenants have preferred to concentrate
upon assembling a relatively disciplined
following of officials and army officers.
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CAMBODIA
We have some evidence that the Lon Nol
government is now willing to open po-
litical discussions with the Khmer Com-
munists. Its previous approach to the
Communists was confined to a largely
unsuccessful rallier program.
Meanwhile the government has made a first ef-
fort to contact the Khmer Communists above the local
level. A French expatriate within the Cambodian
Government has told Ambassador Swank that govern-
ment emissaries met with anti-Sihanouk Khmer Commu-
nist representatives in the enemy-held province of
Kratie in the northeast. The meeting was unproduc-
tive.
This initial result is in keeping with
the frequent insistence by dissident
leaders that no form of political com-
promise with the Lon Nol government is
possible.
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USSR EGYPT
Yevgeniy Pyrlin, the deputy chief of the Soviet
Foreign Ministry's Near East Division, recently de-
scribed relations with Egypt as normal and business-
like "but without kisses." In a conversation with
a US diplomat, he said that Moscow had restated its
policy in clear terms during Premier Sidqi's visit
in October, and that the Egyptians were now con-
vinced that Moscow is firmly opposed to providing
the sophisticated weaponry Cairo had requested. The
Sidqi visit "solved all problems," according to
Pyrlin, thus obviating the need for a summit meet-
ing.
From the Egyptian point of view, the Sidqi
visit did not by any means "solve all prob-
lems." We expect that Cairo will continue
to press for more military aid and main-
tain a suspicious attitude toward Soviet
professions of diplomatic support.
While Pyrlin would naturally want to put
the best possible face on Soviet-Egyptian
relations, the USSR does in fact find some
advantages in the current situation. Its
role in Egypt has greatly diminished, but
so have its costs. In addition, Egyptian
ports are still available, and Moscow's
relations elsewhere in the Middle East
have not been impaired.
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PAKISTAN
Bhutto's relations with the military are
generally sound, but at a time of growing
civil disorder and political opposition
he may feel it prudent to root out even
small pockets of discontent.
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UGANDA
President Amin has scheduled a meeting on
Monday with 200 representatives of the 3,500-member
British community in Uganda to deliver what he terms
his "drastic decision" on the British presence.
he will order the
expulsion of all British merchants, teachers, and
lawyers by-Christmas. The British appear resigned
to at least some diminution of their activity, and
many families are preparing to depart.
. Amin's steady stream of anti-British state-
ments and his expulsion of the British High Com-
missioner have already produced.great-pessimism in
London over the chances of salvaging much during-
Amin's rule. As a result, LondOn recently canceled
a $24-million 'loan and stopped paying supplements
to the salaries of British technicians under con-
tract- to the Ugandan Government.
Amin's announcement, even if it falls
short of a total expulsion of the British,
could prompt some elements of his undis-
ciplined'army to make difficulties for
Britons' and other white residents. If
Amin breaks completely with the UK, he
will Soon need new scapegoats and could
easily turn on the 700-member American
community. Despite past diatribes against
the US, however, he has had unusually kind
words for the US lately.
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NOTE
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Top Secret
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