THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 20 OCTOBER 1972

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005993582
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: October 20, 1972

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The President's Daily Brief
20 October 1972
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. I 1(r52
exemption category 5E(1).12).(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
20, October 1972
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
There are new indications that the Communists in-
tend to increase the level of military action in
? many areas of South Vietnam. (Page 1)
We now have the text of the Communist plan for end-
ing the war in Laos--the most comprehensive and
forthcoming ever--that was offered by the chief Com-
munist negotiator on Tuesday. (Page 3)
Chinese
7(Page 5)
The naming of George Macovescu as Romania's new for-
eign minister brings new verve to the post, but does
not indicate a shift in foreign policy. (Page 6)
The Chilean Government is continuing its crackdown
on striking business and professional groups, but
some opposition leaders are seeking to keep the
protests going. (Page 7)
Icelandic Foreign Minister Agustsson has told par-
liament that negotiations with Washington on the
status of US forces in Iceland will begin in Janu-
ary. (Page 7)
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VIETNAM
There are new indications that the Communists
intend to increase the level of military action in
many sectors of South Vietnam in the immediate fu-
ture.
The evidence suggests that a new surge of at-
tacks could be fairly well coordinated and include
actions in the northern provinces, as well as a sub-
stantial effort near Saigon and in the delta. It
appears that the primary objectives in the southern
parts of the country will continue to be the major
roads and waterways, as well as remote and lightly
defended urban centers. It is also likely that
rocket and sapper, attacks against major cities, in-
cluding Da Nang and Saigon, are included(
Saigon is well aware of the reports of enemy
intentions and is taking defensive precautions.
Moreover, South Vietnamese units have been cautious
about over-extending themselves in the event the
Communists should try to cut them off and force a
battle under undesirable conditions.
Some portions.of the enemy plan have doubt-
less been pre-empted
/ Thus, a new Communist campaign
would not be of the magnitude of the
enemy's effort last spring. Rather, the
enemy presumably plans a less intense at-
tack that it hopes will have significant
political impact on the South Vietnamese
Government and on the peace talks.
(continued)
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LAOS
We now have the text of the Communist plan for
ending the war in Laos--the most comprehensive and
forthcoming ever offered by the Communists. Chief
negotiator Phoune Sipraseuth on Tuesday discussed
in detail the mechanics for proceeding with the
Communist Five-Point Peace Proposals of March 1970.
He indicated clearly for the first time that the
Communists would expect a place for their Lao neu-
tralist allies--as well as themselves--to join with
pro-government elements in a "Provisional Government
of National Coalition." This should be set up "in
the immediate future." Phoune also called for the
creation of a broadly based "council" to prepare for
the election of a new national assembly and for the
establishment of a permanent "Government of National
Union."
This scenario parallels Viet Cong demands
for a greater share of political power
in South Vietnam and presumably represents
the current Communist estimate of how best
to achieve that objective in both countries.
Phoune repeated Communist demands that, as a
precondition to a settlement, the US must stop the
bombing and end all other forms of military involve-
ment. He added that a bombing halt must be accom-
panied by a simultaneous "cease-fire in place."
In contrast to previous statements, how-
ever, the Communists do not demand that
these conditions be met before agreements
can be reached on other matters, such as
preparation for an interim government.
Again, in keeping with the Vietnamese Com-
munist approach, the statement also held
out the possibility of an exchange of pris-
oners of war "of all nationalities." The
Lao Communists have acknowledged that they
hold some US prisoners.
The high rank and experience of the Lao
Communist negotiating team and its busi-
nesslike attitude suggest a serious intent
to move the talks forward. The Communists'
apparent flexibility on the timing of a
bombing halt and a cease-fire indicates
that they will be content to focus first
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LAOS: Bolovens Plateau Area
. 0 10 20 30 Kilometers
107
0 Government-held location
0 Communist-held location
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on less contentious politicarquestions.
Even though they have raised some points
that the government will find hard to ac-
cept, their latest proposals allow con-
siderable room for discussion.
The Communists may see several advantages
in trying to negotiate seriously. They
have, thus far, repelled the government's
efforts to regain vital lost territory.
If Souvanna eventually rejects their de-
mands and the talks collapse, they will,
at least, have not lost anything mili-
tarily and could then choose to increase
the pace of the war. If, on the other
hand, some progress is made on political
matters, the Communists may believe it
will be harder for Souvanna to resist
calling for a bombing halt. Souvanna's
position is that any bombing halt must
be accompanied by a supervised withdrawal
of North Vietnamese forces from Laos--a
key issue that was ignored in the Commu-
nist plan.
In any case, Souvanna is anxious to keep
the talks going even though he is sched-
uled to depart at the end of this week
on a three-week trip to France and the
US. r
The next session is scheduled for 24
October.
The government yesterday launched a major new
offensive in the south. Advance elements of an
eight-battalion irregular force were airlifted to
positions just southwest of Saravane, which the
Communists have controlled since late last year.
The government objective is to take Saravane and
push south to regain a foothold on the Bolovens
Plateau. Meanwhile, at the western edge of the
Bolovens, Communist forces, supported by tanks and
heavy weapons, attacked irregular units near the
junction of Routes 23 and 231.
The Communist attack appears designed to
forestall any government push eastward
toward Paksong, and possibly also to
divert some government troops from the
new offensive against Saravane.
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CHINA
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ROMANIA
Corneliu Manescu has been replaced as foreign
minister by his first deputy, George Macovescu.
We expect Manescu, after more than a dec-
ade as foreign minister, to retain an im-
portant advisory role in Bucharest. Pres-
ident Ceausescu may well name him a member
of the Council of State.
Macovescu, a leading expert on European
security matters, has promoted the coming
Conference on Security and Cooperation in
Europe in his frequent foreign travels.
He will bring new verve to the post, but
the change does not mean a shift in Ro-
manian foreign policy.
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NOTES
Chile: The government is continuing to crack
down on striking business and professional groups.
Many stores and schools are open, and food and fuel
supplies are increasing. Police have replaced army
troops guarding important installations, and street
violence has diminished. Some opposition leaders
are seeking to keep the protests going, however,
and the bus companies have now voted to strike, re-
versing an earlier promise to stay on the job.
Some white-collar unions also decided to join the
strike today.
Iceland: Foreign Minister Agustsson has told
parliament that negotiations with Washington on the
status of US forces in Iceland will begin in Janu-
ary. In discussing this matter with Ambassador Irv-
ing, Agustsson claimed that he is under extreme do-
mestic political pressure to get the talks started
soon. Moreover, by announcing the intention to take
up this issue, he presumably hopes to divert public
attention from concessions?that Iceland may have to
make in its fishing dispute with the UK.
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Top Secret
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