THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 20 SEPTEMBER 1972

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005993529
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: September 20, 1972

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The President's Daily Brief
20 September 1972
45
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Exempt froni general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5B( !)(2WI
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
20 September 1972
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
In Vietnam, Communist attacks in Quang Ngai Province
appear to be part of a coordinated campaign in the
lowlands. (Page 1)
In Cambodia, President Lon Nol has appointed a new
army chief of staff. (Page 4)
Syrian-based fedayeen are continuing to harass the
Israelis and may soon draw an Israeli response.
(Page 5)
The Yugoslav Government has officially demanded that
countries hosting large colonies of Croatian emigres
put a stop to their hostile activities. (Page 6)
In Uganda, President Amin's allegation of British
involvement in ?the recent invasion may lead to the
expulsion of British citizens; the safety of all
Westerners in Uganda is being endangered by Aminrs
xenophobia. (Page 7)
Helsinki is delaying final action on its recognition
of East Germany, possibly out of fear that it may
jeopardize its chances to host the main conference
on European security and cooperation. (Page 7)
At Annex we discuss Communist plans to intensify the
fighting in South Vietnam during September and Octo-
ber.
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SOUTH VIETNAM
The fighting in Quang Ngai Province has spread
to all five coastal districts, and evidence con-
tinues to accumulate that the attacks in this area
are part of a broader coordinated Communist campaign
in the lowlands.
In the Quang Tri City area, fighting has eased,
but intercepts indicate that the Communists are pre-
paring for South Vietnamese air and amphibious as-
saults across the Thach Han River west of the city.
At Annex, there is a longer view of the
fighting as we envision it for the next
two months.
1
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VIETNAM
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CAMBODIA
President Lon Nol has named Major General
Sosthene Fernandez as,his new army chief of staff.
Fernandez, a military professional with a flair for
organization, has already begun to exercise his new
authority. He has indicated that he intends to
take responsibility for direction of combat opera-
tions and has emphasized that all field commanders
wanting to communicate with Lon Nol must go through
him.
Lon Nol may be seeking to derive politi-
cal as well as military benefits from the
appointment. Fernandez is a close associ-
ate of Sink Matakl
/ Lon Nol is also
aware that Matak's refusal to rejoin the
government is based in part on his in-
sistence that the President reduce his
interference in military matters. Given
these factors, the appointment could be
viewed as a conciliatory gesture designed
to induce Matak to accept Lon Nolte re-
peated offers of the vice-presidency.
The appointment has had a tonic effect
on the military, although it remains to
be seen how much authority, over military
operations Lon Nol is really prepared to
give up. Members of the General Staff
are said to be enthusiastic. Lower rank-
ing officers, who recently have been
grumbling about the government's overall
poor performance, may also be pleased
with the move.
4
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ISRAEL-SYRIA
? The Israelis are still hinting that Syria is
the most likely target for future military opera-
tions. A semi-official newspaper, Davar, has de-
scribed the Israeli thrust into Lebanon-over the
weekend as only part of a campaign "with much
broader aims" an noted that fedayeen bases in
?Syria are "within reach" of Israeli Defense Forces.
Arab guerrillas based in Syria, moreover, have con-
tinued to provoke Tel Aviv by shelling Israeli set-
tlements in the Golan Heights.
The Israelis held maneuvers on the Golan
Heights yesterday, perhaps as a prelude
to some sort of military action.(
The problem of rooting out the fedayeen
in Syria, however, is more? difficult than
in Lebanon. The terrain is less passable
and tho distances are greater. The Syrian
Army, much larger than the Lebanese, is
close to the border and gives every indi-
cation that it will resist an Israeli in-
cursion. Given Tel Aviv's policy of keep-
ing casualties to a minimum, it seems
most likely that the Israelis will avoid
large-scale ground actions and keep to
the air as much as possible. This could
include helicopter-commando operations
against selected fedayeen camps. -
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YUGOSLAVIA
Croatian emigres opposed to Tito's government
are elated by the publicity their terrorist acts
have been receiving and are seeking more of it.
In Australia, two Yugoslav tourist agencies were
bombed this week, and in Spain, anonymous telephoners
have threatened violence unless authorities release
Croatian emigres held in the hijacking of an air-
liner from Sweden last week.
Following more than a year of emigre terrorism
both in Yugoslavia and abroad, the government has
officially demanded that countries hosting large
colonies of Croatian emigres put a stop to their
hostile activities. A high Yugoslav party official
has warned in a public speech that failure to do so
would have a negative effect on bilateral relations
The countries involved include Sweden, Austria,
Australia, West Germany, Canada, and the US.
6
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NOTES
Uganda: President Amin's allegation of British
involvement in the recent invasion may lead to the
expulsion of Britons from Uganda. Amin's advisers
have told him that all British technical advisers
should be forced to leave. The government radio
has charged that British spies are living in Uganda,
thus paving the way for action against individual
British citizens. Approximately 60 British citizens
have been arrested. Amin's xenophobia may turn him
against the entire Western presence, including Amer-
icans. Six of the 13 US citizens arrested in.recent
days, including three Peace Corps volunteers, remain
in custody. The government has agreed to release an
American newsman arrested Sunday into the custody of
the embassy.
Finland: Ever since the Finns and the East Ger-
mans initialed a treaty on 6 September to establish
diplothitic relations, the West Germans have ignored
Helsinki's offers to engage in similar negotiations.
Now the Finns say they will wait to consummate their
deal with East Germany until Bonn also is ready to
establish relations with Finland. One of the fac-
tors involved in this Finnish decision may be the
fear that it has jeopardized Helsinki's chances of
hosting the main conference on European security
and cooperation.
7
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Demilitarized Zone
Gulf of
Thailand
104
553613 9-72
Capital Special Zone
South
China
Sea
SOUTH VIETNAM
110
MILES
1110
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VIETNAM
The Communists are continuing to press ahead
with their plans
to intensify the fighting in South Vietnam
during September and October. Indeed, they are al-
ready on the move in some areas. Clearly, they are
not capable of--and are not talking of--pulling off
something to rival their three-pronged offensive
last spring. Much as the Communists might hope for
some dramatic new success, their current purpose
seems to be to enhance their position on the ground
for the contingency of either a cease-fire or fur-
ther prolonged fighting. Efforts to influence the
US election may also be behind the new Communist ef-
forts.
Communist ambitions obviously have been dealt
a blow by the loss of control over the Quang Tri
City citadel in northern Military Region 1. The
North Vietnamese had made an all-out effort to hold
this position and had fed most of their major units
in this area into the fight. Their failure will
give considerable encouragement to the South Viet-
namese and must have been a corresponding psycho-
logical blow to the Communists. At the same time,
the Communists as yet show no signs of giving up
the fight for Quang Tri Province, and there are in-
dications that they may be preparing counterstrikes
in the government's rear along Route 1 and nearer
to Hue.
Moreover, while government reserves are still
heavily tied down in the Quang Tri - Hue area, the
Communists appear determined to make inroads into
the populated coastal provinces of Quang Nam, Quang
Tin, and Quang Ngai in southern Military Region 1.
Following up attacks they launched in the latter
half of August against the Que Son Valley of Quang
Nam and Tien Phuoc District of Quang Tin, the Com-
munists have struck hard this week in Quang Ngai,
using a division-plus force that recently moved to
the province from the central highlands.
(continued)
Al
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Enemy forces remaining in the central highlands
appear inadequate to mount another drive similar to
that undertaken against Kontum Province last spring.
Nevertheless, these forces currently are conducting
limited operations to isolate government bases and
towns in western Pleiku Provipne and to keen aovern-
ment forces tied down there.
? The Communists appear to be planning for
greater offensive activity in the delta, where
they have increased their force strength and are
now moving in supplies and equipment, including_
heavier artillery. They have about five regiments
around Base Area 470 in, the northern delta, and the
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equivalent of at least two divisions is in the west-
ern and southern delta. In the past week, there has
been a sharp increase in shellings and attacks
against government outposts in provinces around
these enemy concentrations, notably Dinh Tuong and
Kien Hoa in the upper delta and Chuong Thien and
Kien Giang to the west.
It is still not certain that the Communists
will try to use these large forces in the delta,
where they are especially vulnerable to air action,
to attack major towns. Their very presence, how-
ever, and the knocking out of outposts have been
sufficient to cause some pullback of government.ad-
ministrators and troops toward the towns and to al-
low the Communists ,to circulate more freely among
unprotected hamlets, recruiting, impressing, and
foraging for supplies. Should the larger enemy
units be withdrawn or forced out, such setbacks to
pacification might.be fairly rapidly reversed, but
if they remain.or obtain additional North Vietnam-
ese reinforcements--like the 1st Division -across
the border in southwestern. Cambodia--the deteriora-
tion could be more lasting.
In sum, the Communists are now moving to in-
tensify the fighting in widely separated areas of
South Vietnam. Their purpose is not to launch a
major new offensive, but to get into the strongest
possible position to exploi-ta cease-fire or, if
that does not come, to continue the fighting for
the indefinite future.
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