THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 16 DECEMBER 1971

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005993032
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: December 16, 1971

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The President's Daily Brief
16 December 1971
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THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
16 December 1971
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
The Pakistanis have until 0530 Washington time to
surrender their troops in the East. In the interim,
the Indians apparently have ordered a stop to firing
in East Pakistan. (Page 1)
The latest fedayeen assassination attempt is dis-
cussed on Page 3.
The insurgency in northern Thailand has sharply in-
creased in intensity. (Page .5)
The Chinese
(Page 6.)
We examine on Page 7 the possibilities for closer
relations between the USSR and Israel.
We discuss at Annex Yugoslavia's Croatian problem.
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INDIA-PAKISTAN
Indian Chief Of Staff General Manekshaw has
agreed to give Pakistan until 050 Eastern Standard
Time to surrender its troops in the East. The In-
dians have sent a senior officer to Dacca via heli-
copter to effect the surrender. General Niazi, the
Pakistani commander in the East, may still, however,
try to persuade the Indians to accept terms short of
the unconditional surrender they have demanded. Fur-
ther information on Pakistani plans with regard to
the war and the domestic political situation may be
revealed by President Yahya, who is to make a nation-
wide radio address this morning at 0915 Washington
time.
In the West, the Indians reportedly bombed
Karachi yesterday for the first time in several days.
Lahore was also attacked from the air. Land and air
action was reported at several other places on the
western front, but there apparently were no impor-
tant new gains by either side.
an Indian Army reserve
division was airlifted from Calcutta on 11 December
to the western front.
(continued)
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Anti-American demonstrations are continuing in
Indian cities. There were'six such demonstrations
in Calcutta on 14 December, the largest with about
2,000 participants. More such actions are expected
in Calcutta over the next few days. According to
US officials in the city, the demonstrations reflect
a popular rather than merely a partisan mood, and
the attitude of the demonstrators. is the angriest
seen there in the past two years. A number of
anti-US demonstrations also took place yesterday in
New Delhi, including one in which a number of mem-
bers of Parliament of various political persuasions
protested in front of the US Embassy:
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JORDAN-FEDAYEEN
The attempted killing of Jordan's ambassador in Lon-
don yesterday underlines the Palestine liberation
movement's intention to eliminate the Jordanian re-
gime by assassination. Zaid Rifai, who served King
Husayn as chief of the royal court during the bitter
contests with the fedayeen last year, was wounded in
the hand by submachine gun fire near his embassy.
The assailant, who escaped, was presumably a member
of a group similar to the Fatah special action squad
that assassinated Prime Minister Wasfi Tal in Cairo
late last month.
Further assassination attempts or Jordanian reprisals
could occur in almost any city where senior Jorda-
nian or Palestinian leaders are present. Beirut, the
effective headquarters of Palestinian resistance ac-
tivity, is likely to be the main arena.
Syria could be another target for Jordanian repris-
als. I
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EGYPT-USSR
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VIETNAM
THA1LAN
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THAILAND
The Communist insurgency in the north has taken
an increasingly adverse trend. In a recent series
of skillfully conducted ambushes, Communist guer-
rillas have demonstrated sophisticated tactics; in-
cluding the ability to use relatively, large units.
They initiated three separate incidents on 6 Decem-
ber along key roads in Nan and Chiang Rai provinces
and later conducted a daylight ambush on the-impor-
tant Tak - Mae Sot highway in Tak Province. Govern-
ment casualties in these encounters were over 100.
The ambushes, plus increased harassment of road-
building crews, suggest a growing 'focus on'inter-
.diction:of major roads.
The northern insurgency is expanding more
rapidly than the longer-lived one in the
northeast and has become more worrisome
to the Thai. Government. Over the past
year, insurgents in the north have.:in-
creased-from a' strength of under 2,000 to
about 2,300 to 2,700. They are supported
by a regional command in a Communist-con-
trolled section of Laos and are being out-
fitted with Communist weapons. The insur-
gents originally concentrated on subvert-
ing hill tribes long neglected by the Thai
Government, but over the past year they
have moved into the contiguous Thai-popu-
lated lowlands. These forays' until re-
cently were limited to recruitment, prop-
aganda, and acquisition of supplies, but
the temporary seizure last month of a low-
land village may portend an effort to ex-
pand base areas into the lowlands.
Thai counter-insurgency efforts in the ,
north have been hampered by the difficulty
of the terrain and the wariness of hill
tribesmen. These efforts have also suf-
fered from a Zack of initiative. Even
well-executed operations have been nulli-
fied later by the failure to maintain a
government presence. A recent government
decision to emphasize small-unit patrols
in frequent contact with rural villages
is encouraging, but this new tactic also
may suffer in implementation.
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COMMUNIST CHINA
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USSR ISRAEL
The Soviets are still encouraging speculation
about. the possibility of a rapprochement between
the USSR and Israel. Soviet journalist Victor Louis,
a man often used by Moscow to float trial balloons,
wrote in one of Israel's most widely read newspapers
on Monday that increased emigration of Soviet Jews
to Israel "might require" the creation of Soviet and
Israeli interest sections,in other nations! embas-
sies in Moscow and Tel Aviv. The Israeli Foreign
Ministry responded with a statement that the USSR
has not made such a proposal, but that Israel would
be willing to discuss it if the matter were raised.
The Soviets, because of the sensibilities
of their Arab allies, appear to want a
regularization of their unofficial con-
tacts with the Israelis, rather than re-
sumption of diplomatic relations. They
undoubtedly worry that reopening the So-
viet Embassy in Tel Aviv would invite the
Arabs to permit a greater US presence in
their capitals. In any case, the Soviets
would like to be able to show the Arabs
that their resumption of ties with Israel
would result in a more conciliatory ne-
gotiating position in Tel Aviv. Such a
result would be difficult to obtain from
the Israelis. Nevertheless, even unoffi-
cial contacts would provide Moscow a use-
fuZ channel of communications at a time
when Egypt is threatening to resume the
war and would help cut into the US monop-
oly of influence in Tel Aviv.
Up to now, the Israelis have held out for
re-establishment of formal relations with
the USSR. The Foreign Ministry statement,
however, raises the possibility that Is-
rael might settle for something less, if
the prospect of continued emigration of
Soviet Jews were part of the bargain. In
fact, the number of Jews emigrating from
the USSR to Israel in December has been
abnormally high--1,200 in the first 11
days of the month, according to a Foreign
Ministry official. The total for 1971
could come to as many as 14,000. The
figure for 1969 was about 3,000 and for
1970 only about 1,000.
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CROATIAN NATIONALISM SURFACES IN YUGOSLAVIA
By his sweeping purge of the Communist Party's lead-
ers in Croatia last Sunday, Tito means to reinforce
the principle that excessive republican nationalism
cannot be tolerated in the federal structure. Al-
though the message was clearly received, it does
not seem to have convinced many important Croats,
and Tito is embroiled in one of the more serious
challenges to his authority since he took power.
Indeed, the Croatians have not yet given up the
fight. The Croatian party central committee has
not fully acknowledged?as was expected of it--its
culpability for mistakes leading to the purge. A
large number of Croats have resigned from party,
army, and press posts, but no new people have been
appointed to fill most of these positions. Some of
these resignations were directed by Tito, but the
large number of local officials who have resigned
since Sunday suggests that many are acting in pro-
test against the central authorities. These de-
velopments strongly suggest that the majority of
Croat leaders are basically in agreement with the
views of the ousted nationalist leaders and are un-
willing to accept official posts in the current cir-
cumstances. The appointment as new party head of
Mrs. Planinc, who is of Slovenian origin although
she grew up in Croatia, indicates a certain diffi-
culty in finding Croatian candidates for the job.
Croatian nationalism has been a subterranean issue
since the formation of the federation./
Today's crisis grew out of the Croatian party's le-
nient handling of a student strike that lasted from
23 November to 3 December at Zagreb University. The
students were looking for autonomy from federal con-
trol and seem to have received the sympathy of party
leaders who, in turn, got student support for their
fight with Belgrade over control of the republic's
economy. The strike is over, but after the purge
began the students mounted small defiant demonstra-
tions in support of the ousted leaders. These were
swiftly put down; the majority of students are back
in school today, and some are in jail.
(continued)
Al
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Neither the students' strike nor their demonstrations
attracted support from other segments of the popula-
tion, and it is likely that Tito can face down the
present "strike" of Croatia's politicians. We expect
that party discipline and at least a surface unity
will be restored in time for the second national con-
ference of the Communist Party in late January. The
meeting was called to discuss the role of the party
under the new federal constitution, which gives re-
public governments a great amount of autonomy. AZ-
though there has been some argument that the party
also should be decentralized, it is now almost a
foregone conclusion that a monolithic party struc-
ture will be retained. If taken too far, however,
the application of the power inherent in such a
structure could render irrelevant the role of auton-
omous governments and open new tensions between the
republics and Belgrade.
Nationalism, based on ethnic and religious differ-
ences among the 15 differing peoples who reside in
Yugoslavia, is not restricted to Croatia. In recent
days, for example, federal Vice President Crvenkov-
ski has been charged with being a Macedonian nation-
alist, and so have professors and students of Al-
banian origin at Pristina University in Kosovo. AZ-
though there is an element of settling old scores
in these charges, there also is an element of truth.
Tito is racing the clock. He is trying to create
federal and republic institutions that will be
strong enough to survive his death or incapacitation.
After the forthcoming party conference, he will con-
sider this phase of his work largely done. With his
tremendous prestige, Tito has imposed cooperation
among competing republics and a truce among hostile
nationalities, but he has not been able to instill
trust among them. For this reason, we expect such
animosities to flare again, perhaps with Croatia
leading the way, when Tito is no longer available
to impose solutions.
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