THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 15 DECEMBER 1971

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005993030
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: December 15, 1971

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/18 : CIA-RDP79T00936A010200140001-8
The President's Daily Brief
15 December 1971
46
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
15 December 1971
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
Pakistani forces appear to be on the verge of ca-
pitulating in the East. (Page 1)
The military situation in Cambodia is discussed on
Page 4.
An agreement on national fishing rights has cleared
the way for the UK, Denmark, and Ireland to sign
the EC accession treaty. (Page 5)
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
INDIA-PAKISTAN
Pakistani forces appear to be on the 'verge of
capitulating in the East. Despite his resignation
yesterday, Governor Malik and his military adviser,
General Farman Ali, sent a message early this morn-
ing to UN Secretary General Thant claiming that
President Yahya wants an immediate cease-fire to
permit talks aimed at bringing hostilities to an
end. The message stated that Yahya desired "honor-
able conditions for Pakistani troops and protection
of civilians."
Although a similar initiative last week
by Farman Ali did not have Yahya's ap-
proval and was quashed by Islamabad; the
deteriorating situation in the East may
well have convinced Yahya to call it
quits.
Yesterday, General Niazi, Islamabad's, army
commander in East Pakistan, said he wanted a cease-
fire. Only a few days ago, he had 'taken a vehement
stand against surrendering. Niazi's proposal, which
he asked the US consul in Dacca to transmit to New
Delhi, calls for an immediate cease-fire, the re
grouping of Pakistani armed. forces in areas to be
mutually agreed upon, and guarantees for their
safety and the safety of the BihariS and others who
have helped the East Pakistan government since last'
March. Niazi also promised that he would abide by
any UN Security Council decision providing for a
permanent settlement of the conflict.
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Commenting on Islamabad s options after the
defeat of the Pakistani Army in the East, the US
Embassy in Islamabad estimates that Wept Pakistan
would probably prefer to cut its losses and concede
the loss of East Pakistan-if this can be done with
honor--rather than continue fighting against in-
creasing odds in the West The government's accept-
ance of the loss of East Pakistan and agreement to
halt the fighting in the West would help keep the
army intact as an institution, which, in turn, widtid
deter the emergence of a more radical military
leadership. The government's control of the media
would facilitate efforts to make defeat more palat-
able to the- public.
(continued)
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
In the fighting yesterday the Indians began
shelling military targets in Dacca as their armored
and infantry units probed the city's outer defense
perimeter. Although the Indians now claim to have
sealed off all escape routes from the capital, they
may be holding back from an all-out attack in hopes
that the Pakistanis will decide against a bloody
last-ditch stand. The Indians claim that some Pak-
istani troops around the city have already surren-
dered. Dacca's civil administration has virtually
collapsed and most high-level Islamabad-appointed
officials have sought refuge in the International
Hotel.
Indian forces are reported to have advanced to
about eight miles from Chittagong, East Pakistan's
most important port. The Indians claim they are
giving the city a heavy pounding from the air and
sea. Elsewhere in the province, some Pakistani
forces continue to hold a few isolated spots. Where
the Indians are now in firm control refugees are be-
ginning to trickle back to their homes from India.
According to a representative of the UN High Commis-
sion for Refugees, 30,000 people have returned so
far, most of them heads of family who are exploring
conditions.
According to the Indian press, New Delhi has
agreed to send civil servants into East Pakistan to
help the new Bangla Desh government set up an admin-
istrative network there.
Although BangZa Desh authorities recognize
the need for Indian expertise, their re-
quest for Indian aid is alsomotivated by
a desire to prevent radical groups from
seizing control in many areas where the
administrative structure has lapsed.
On the western front, the situation remains
largely unchanged. Except forpatrolling and some
small-unit clashes there was little fighting any-
where yesterday, except in the Sialkot sector where
the-Indians.said they were trying to capture the
town of Shakargarh, ten milea over the border.
Although more than a dozen Soviet ships are
now in the Indian Ocean, only four--two Kotlin-class
destroyers and two minesweepers--are naval surface
combatants. These four ships are currently in the
far western sector of the Arabian Sea, well removed
from the India-Pakistan theater. The one Soviet
submarine known to be in the Indian Ocean is an
F-class diesel attack unit believed to be near
Socotra.
(continued)
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Three ships of the Pacific Fleet are now in
the South China Sea, however, suggesting that the
Soviets are planning to augment their Indian Ocean
forces. These ships, a Kynda-class guided missile
cruiser, a J-class guided missile submarine, and a
tanker, were some 400 miles south of Taiwan today,
and could enter the Indian Ocean via the Malacca
Straits this weekend.
ship movements suggest another task group may be
headed to the Indian Ocean. Members of this three-
ship task group, possibly led by a Kotlin-class de-
stroyer located east of the Kuriles on 13 December,
Two more Soviet combatants--Kresta- and Kotlin-
class large anti-submarine ships--moved south out of
the Sea of Japan on 14 December. These units have
3
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
CAMBODIA
The Viet Cong!s 272nd Regiment has withdrawn
from Route 6 and now is located just north of the
Chup rubber plantation, where it could be used to
counter South Vietnamese operations in the southern
part of the plantation. Two other regiments are
moving eastward, but remain within striking distance
of Route 6. .Enemy reconnaissance units are still
active along the road, and a headquarters element
of the Communist 9th Division recently moved closer
to Tang-Kouk, where the morale and defenses of gov-
ernment troops remain shaky.
Farther north, the Communists also are keeping
the pressure on government forces isolated at Kam-
pong.ThOm? According to the US defense attache,
thinly spread government forces are totally depend-
ent on aerial resupply and are highly vulnerable to
Communist harassment.
In the Phnom Penh area, the Phuoc Long Front's
52nd Regiment has returned to its normal base area
some 35 miles southwest of the capital, apparently
to rest and refit following about six weeks of ac-
tivity near Phnom Penh. Other units remain close
to the city, however. Cambodian Army units on
clearing operations west of Phnom Penh have had
little contact with the Communists, but are staying
close to the roadways.
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
NOTE
European Communities: An agreement on the
troublesome question of fishing rights has cleared
the way for the UK, Denmark, and Ireland to sign
the EC accession treaty. The agreement permits ex-
clusive national fishing rights within a six-mile
limit that can be extended to 12 miles in areas
where fishing is the main industry. Norway, how-
ever, is dissatisfied with this arrangement and is
expected to delay signing in hopes of getting bet-
ter terms. Although the ratification process is
not likely to be completed until late next year,
the UK is already moving rapidly to get in step
with its new partners. At the early December meet-
ing of the Group of Ten finance ministers in Rome,
Britain carefully concerted its position with that
of the Six, and it has endorsed the EC's position
on the pending trade negotiations with the US.
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Top Secret
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