THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 7 DECEMBER 1971

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005993016
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: December 7, 1971

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The President's Daily Brief
7 December 1971
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THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
7 December 1971
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
India is trying to win quickly in East Pakistan
while fighting a holding action on the western
front. (Page 1)
The North Vietnamese have captured Saravane in
south Laos and appear to have set the stage for re-
newed action in the north. (Page 3)
Cambodian Prime Minister Lon Nol appears to be in
serious political trouble. (Page 4)
Tokyo
Hanoi. (Page 6,)
Japan's 1971 trade surplus may top $7 billion, the
largest recorded by any country in 20 years.
(Page 7)
Infiltration from North Vietnam is continuing at a
rate roughly similar to that of last year. (Page 8)
fedayeen
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Syria. (Page 8) 50X1
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INDIA-PAKISTAN
Indian forces have met stiff resistance
at several points, but the Indians appear to be gen-
erally gaining ground and are not known to have suf-
fered any significant setbacks. They have made siz-
able inroads in the northwestern portion of the prov-
ince, and they claim to have captured or surrounded
a number of important towns and key locations else-
where.
This morning an Indian spokesman in New Delhi
claimed Indian forces had reached the airfield at
Jessore. The Pakistanis have indicated that they
will try hard to prevent the loss of major centers
such as Dacca or Jessore, but with India dominating
air and sea routes, the Pakistani troops in the ?East
have little hope of receiving supplies or reinforce-
ments. They also have no apparent means of escaping
from the province. Their resistance to India's ad-
vancing forces has probably been partly due to their
fear of falling into the hands of the Bengali guer-
rillas, many of whom undoubtedly want revenge for
Pakistani atrocities against the Bengali populace.
the Indian Army
is seeking to counter this problem by broadcasting
to Pakistani troops that all prisoners will remain
under Indian control and receive good treatment. East
Pakistan's Biharis, anon-Bengali Muslim minority, are
also in danger of Bengali reprisals because of the as-
sistance many Biharis have given to the Pakistani Army.
On the India - West Pakistan front, Pakistani
forces have advanced a few miles into Indian ter-
ritory at several points, and may be planning
stronger thrusts. The Indians in turn have made
some encroachments in Sind Province, but they claim
they are not seeking any permanent territorial gains
in West Pakistan. Mrs. Gandhi has indicated that
additional troops will be transferred to the western
front once Indian objectives have been achieved in
the East, but it is not clear whether the Indians
then intend to increase their offensive efforts in
the West.
In the air war, India has apparently established
domination of the skies over East Pakistan. Pakistan
continues to vie with the Indians for air superiority
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on the western front, however. India is bombing and
strafing assorted military targets in and around
Karachi, Lahore, and Islamabad, while Pakistani
planes yesterday attacked two air bases in western
India and are said to have strafed Bombay.
Meanwhile, a Canadian C-130 aircraft sent by
the UN to evacuate personnel under UN auspices
from Dacca was attacked and hit, apparently by
Indian Air Force planes, as it approached its des-
tination. The aircraft returned to Bangkok. The
attack occurred during a period when the UN believed
it had obtained a temporary cease-fire agreement for
the evacuation from Dacca.
At the UN, with the USSR expected to continue
blocking Security Council efforts to halt the fight-
ing before East Pakistan falls, the Council has ap-
proved a-US-backed proposal that the General As-
sembly take up.the issue this morning. Any resolu-
tion adopted in the General Assembly would be merely
a recommendation, however. China, meanwhile, is
becoming more vehementAn its condemnations of In-
dian and Soviet actions in the crisis, but there are
no indications that Peking intends to depart from
its policyof avoiding-direct involvement. Chinese
media now appear to be preparing their readers for
an eventual Pakistani defeat.
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LAOS
Area of
maps
? Government-held location
? Communist-held location
25
MILES
SO
avannokhet
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LAOS
A North-Vietnamese force of some three to five
battalions yesterday overwhelmed-a Lao-Army battal-
ion-defending the depopulated town-of Saravane and
forced it to withdraw westward. The size of the
Communist force tends-to confirm earlier indications
that new enemy units--probably elements- of the: 2nd-
Division--are moving into south Laos for a dry-sea-
son offensive. Two-irregular task forces are still
keeping the enemy off-balance along-the northern
edge of the Bolovens Plateau, but enemy resistance
has been increasing during the past few days
If units of the North Vietnamese force
now- around Saravaneturn south, they could
pose.a significant -threat to the govern-
ment's ability to operate in the Bolovens
area.
? In the north, major troop deployments from
North Vietnam into the area of the Plaine des Jarres
now appear complete. Since the movement-began in
mid-October, more than 5,000 and possibly over
10,000 troops have been sent into ,north Laos, Pi-
lots and ground observers have reported improvements
in the North Vietnamese-road net.east of the Plaine
during the--past week, and aerial observers believe
that a new road now links Route 7--in the north with
Route-4 in the south. If true it.would permit sup-
plies-to be trucked along the eastern edges of-the
Plaine. In addition, the Communists are improving
Route 72, a main, road between the North Vietnamese
border and the southern Plaine:
The North Vietnamese thus appear to have
set the stage for renewed action in the
north.
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CAMBODIA
Key government officials have now joined ci-
vilian critics in blaming Lon Nol for the collapse
?of the Chenla II operation.
There is also new evidence that Lon Nol's
special relationship with Sink Matak has deterio-
rated. Matak recently had a cordial meeting with
In Tam, the energetic opposition leader, at which
Matak stated that he was "incapable" of continuing
his present association with Lon Nol.
Matak may be upset by the fact that, con-
trary to their "understanding," Lon Nol
has again assumed the burden of running
the government. Matak may be trying to
dissociate himself from what increasingly
appears to many in Phnom Penh as a bank-
rupt leadership.
Any move to oust Lon Nol or shift him to
an honorific post will need the backing
of the military. There is still little
information on how the military leaders
are reacting to recent reverses, but some
will undoubtedly cite Lon Nol's excessive
control over battlefield tactics as a ma-
jor factor. Some military leaders appar-
ently believe Lon Nol is overly o timi -
tic in his militar lannin
(continued)
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In any case, as the prime mover behind the
Chenla II offensive, Lon NoZ could hardly
escape blame for its failure. Nor is it
surprising that the criticisms of him which
precipitated the political crisis last
spring would surface again. The stage has
now been set for another period of polit-
ical maneuvering in Phnom Penh, but it is
far from certain that the disparate ele-
ments who are unhappy with Lon Nol can
agree on a successor.
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JAPAN - NORTH VIETNAM
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JAPAN
?The over-all Japanese trade surplus this year
could easily exceed $7 billion, the largest recorded
by any country in the last two decades. Despite the
US surcharge and appreciation of the yen, the number
of export letters ofcredit opened last month--a
leading indicator of exports--was up 26 percent over
the November 1970 level. Actual exports to the US
are reported to have been 22 percent higher than dur-
ing November 1970. Meanwhile, imports continue to
increase only slowly because of the country's_eco-
nomic slowdown.
According to press reports, Tokyo is be-
coming increasingly, concerned that its
continued export surge could lead to for-
eign demands for more export restraints.
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NOTES
Indochina: During October and November, 24 in-
filtration groups and seven small special-purpose
groups were detected at way-stations in southern
North Vietnam and adjacent areas of Laos. Analysis
of the identification numbers of the new groups sug-
gests that an additional 34 groups started south but
have not been detected thus far. Although the evi-
dence available this year is less complete than in
the past, we can estimate witha fair degree of con-
fidence that troop movement so far this season is
probably between 25,000 and 32,000 personnel. Ap-
proximately 36,000 men departed North Vietnam in the
same period last year.
Jordan-Fedayeen-Syria:
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