THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 18 OCTOBER 1971

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005992924
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: October 18, 1971

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The President's Daily Brief
18 October 1971
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THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
18 October 1971
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
India has increased its military preparedness near ?
border areas and sent out Varying signals of its
readiness to act. (Page. 1)
On Page 3 we discuss the latest indications of Lin
Piao'S lessened rOle and other. developments in Com-
munist China. ?
/Vie tnamf7
(Page 5)
On Page 6 we report on the Communists' military ac-
tion over the weekend in the Cambodian - South Viet-
namese border area and appraise their plans for the
dry season.
The Cambodian Government has transformed the Na-
tional Assembly into a constituent assembly charged
with completing a new constitution. (Page 7)
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INDIA-PAKISTAN
Both the Indian Army and Navy have been placed
on the highest state of alert
//Indian newspapers are head-
lining stories of Pakistani troops massing on the
border and, according to the press, a government
official has confirmed that Indian troops have also
moved up to the frontier.
Views of the urgency of the situation vary
considerably./
One explanation for the latest Indian
activity is fear that Pakistan is about
to launch an attack. The Foreign Min-
istry's senior civil servant told US
Charge Stone on Saturday that Indian
defensive preparations were forced by
the situation in East Pakistan, Paki-
stani troop movements, and "bellicose"
Pakistani statements. He affirmed that
India would not fire the first shot.
The Indians have known about the Paki-
stani troop movements ?since at least 4
October, however, and the apparent delay
in their reaction raises the possibility
that they have other purposes. New Delhi
may well be trying to force Western na-
tions to increase pressures on President
Yahya to seek a political solution by
making it appear that war is the only
alternative. India could also be pre-
paring for a Pakistani countermove to
1
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the long-anticipated guerrilla offensive
in East Pakistan,-although we have no in-
dications that such an offensive is im-
minent.
In any event, Islamabad is most likely to
view the Indian moves as a sign that New
Delhi is getting ready to attack, and so
make further military preparations of its
own.
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COMMUNIST CHINA
Chinese officials as saying that extensive
discussions are under way concerning "col-
lective leadership" after. Mao's death--
leaving the impression that Lin Piao's
physical or political capacity has become
a major question in Peking. I
I In
contrast to the rapid and persistent de-
nials evoked by earlier rumors about Mao's
health, Chinese spokesmen have deliber-
ately evaded questions about Lin's condi-
tion.
The official Chinese press has recently
treated Lin in an unusual way. Peking has
failed to publicize toasts made to Mao's
and Lin's health at two official functions,
and no statement at the national level has
cited Lin since mid-September. Lin's name
nevertheless has continued to appear in
provincial radiobroadcasts most recently
on 8 October.
The regime appears to be intensifying its
efforts to deflect popular concern over
developments at home by calling attention
to alleged-threats from abroad. I
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? The Virtual standdown of Chinese military air-
craft, evident since the early hours of 13 September,
may be drawing to a close. Flights involving some
30 fighter aircraft ,attached to three air training
schools were noted yesterday. In addition, training .
flights involving propeller-driven aircraft attached
to a bomber training school took place on 13 October.
No resumption of normal activity from operational
bases has yet been noted, however, and military air
transport remain g at a low level,
4
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VIETNAM
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Operating Areas of Communist Main Forces Near Border Area
CAMBODIA
Communist
9th Division
.Dam be
Kompong Chom Elements of Communis
5th Division
Snuol
PHNOM PENH
?Communist
7th Division 22 TAY
NINH
y Ninh
SOUTH VIET
p VINT' RACH GIA
551-996-1-071-CIA-
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SOUTH VIETNAM - CAMBODIA
Communist gunners continued their attacks in
the Cambodian - South Vietnamese border area during
the weekend, shelling three South Vietnamese artil-
lery bases in and around Krek, as well as ARVN Ranger
and armored elements operating east-northeast of
Krek. prisoners
taken last week by the South Vietnamese claim the
mission, of Viet Cong 5th Division units is to keep
up pressure in the Krek area, while that of the
North Vietnamese 7th Division across the border in
Tay Ninh Province is to block Route 22 and ambush
any ARVN reinforcements.
It is likely that the primary objective of
the Communists in the border area is to
try to protect their positions in Cambodia
by tying down the South Vietnamese. With
the dry season logistics push from North
Vietnam about to begin, the Communists will
rely on their bases in the Chup-Dambe area
northwest of Krek to handle new supplies
and manpower for their operations in both
Cambodia and southern South Vietnam, and
they may be concerned over a possible South
Vietnamese incursion similar to that during
last uear's dru season.
the Communists
are constructing de ensive positions along
Route 7 near Chup,
I In addi-
tion to keeping the South Vietnamese away
from these base areas, the Communists may
have a longer-range aim of eventually re-
opening the old corridors from their Cam-
bodian sanctuaries to the Saigon area.
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CAMBODIA
On Saturday the Cambodian Government decreed
that effective today the National Assembly will be
transformed into a constituent assembly charged
with completing work on a new constitution. The
new assembly's term of office extends for as long
as is needed to adopt the constitution.
Lon NoZ's government now is in a position
to rule by executive decree for an in-
definite period. No longer does it need
to seek approval of its programs by the
opposition-dominated legislature, and
deputies will no longer have the authority
to interpellate ministers.
It may be quite some time before a new
constitution is promulgated. A number of
its draft provisions are already the sub-
ject of much controversy. A new constitu-
tion will require new elections, which many
government leaders believe unwise under
present military circumstances.
Lon NoZ and Sink Matak presumably cal-
culate that the creation of a constituent
assembly is preferable to the outright
dismissal of the National Assembly--whose
mandate was due ,to expire today--in order
to soften any adverse domestic and inter-
national reactions. Nevertheless, the
move may well further unsettle the inter-
nal situation by raising the specter that
the regime is moving toward precisely the
sort of authoritarian rule for which it
faulted and ultimately deposed Sihanouk.
For the immediate future, the government's
action does not seem likely to provoke any
serious political opposition. Several
prominent members of the assembly?in-
cluding its president, Yem Sambaur, and
recently dismissed Interior Minister In
Tam?have labeled the formation of the
constituent assembly as illegal, but
have told the press that they have no
power to fight it.
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NOTE
USSR: The Soviet naval task force which was
apparently en route to Cuba has turned northward to
shadow the US carrier Saratoga. The Saratoga is
heading west about 800 miles east of Bermuda. A
Soviet cruise missile submarine, which was also
heading toward Cuba, apparently is maintaining a
position ahead of the carrier so as to participate
in the surveillance. The task force may still
change course again and head for Cuba, however.
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Top Secret
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