THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 14 SEPTEMBER 1971

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005992860
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: September 14, 1971

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/18 : CIA-RDP79T00936A009900130001-4
The President's Daily Brief
14 September 1971
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THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
14 September 1971
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
South Vietnarr(
(Page 1)
/ (Page 3)
Jordan has called for an urgent meeting of the Secu-
rity Council to discuss Israeli activity in Jerusalem.
(Page 4)
Thailand
(Page 5)
International economic developments are discussed on
Page 6.
At annex, we review the Outlook for war between India
and Pakistan.
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SOUTH VIETNAM
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ISRAEL
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JORDAN - UNITED NATIONS
Jordan's insistent call for an urgent
meeting of the UN Security Council to con-
demn Israel's activities in Jerusalem
could produce a verbal donnybrook ranging
over the entire Middle East problem. Some
Arab governments may attempt to obtain a
resolution stronger than the one submitted
by Husayn.
Amman now has a draft incorporating various
changes suggested by the Egyptians that is accept-
able to the US as well. The Japanese delegate, who
is this month's Council president, is planning to
schedule the meeting within the week./
I No matter how it
comes out, such a debate is not likely to
alter Tel Aviv's policy of:integrating
Arab Jerusalem into Israel.
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THAI LAND
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INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
The European Community finance ministers agreed
yesterday on a set of recommendations for interna-
tional monetary reform to present at the Group of
Ten meeting in London on Wednesday. The recommenda-
tions include a return to fixed parities although
with greater margins of flexibility; a devaluation
of the dollar as part of general currency realign-
ment; and a significant revaluation of the Japanese
yen. They also call for a greater role for Special
Drawing Rights in the creation of new international
reserves.
?The EC countries decided, however, to maintain
their present national exchange-rate schemes for
the time being. It remains to be seen how long they
can do so before the.disruption of Community eco-
nomic life forces them to resolve their differences.
On Thursday the Council of the 76-member. General
Agreement on Tariffs and Trade most likely will ac-
cept the report of its working party that criticizes
the US surcharge as "inappropriate." It is unlikely,
however, that the GATT contracting parties will re-
taliate by withdrawing equivalent tariff concessions.
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USSR:
NOTE
Kosygin was injured in an automobile acci-
dent on 3 September. He was taken immediately to
the Kremlin polyclinic in downtown Moscow and later
that evening to the hospital in suburban Kuntsevo
where he apparently spent the night. Kosygin's in-
juries were described as minor, however, and he met
with UK former prime minister Wilson today, accord-
ing to press reports.
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INDIA-PAKISTAN
Mrs. Gandhi may well make her final decision on
whether or not to invade East Pakistan in the next
few weeks. By early October, or even sooner, the
end of the monsoon rains will make large-scale
operations in East Pakistan possible. Although it
is conceivable that war could be forced upon India
by some pre-emptive move of the Pakistanis, it is
more likely to be a conscious decision based on
domestic political pressures, the continuing ref-
ugee flow, and fear that, without intervention,
East Pakistan eventually will be taken over by
leftists.
So far, Mrs. Gandhi has been able to withstand the
critics?both in the opposition and within her own
party--of her Bangla Desh policy. Since parliament
will not convene before late October, she faces no
immediate political problem.
Mrs. Gandhi could, however, decide it is worth a
war to stop the refugee flow, if it goes on much
longer. There are now almost 8.5 million refugees
in India, according to Indian figures, and the end
of the monsoon may bring more. When the rains stop,
West Pakistani troops will be able to move more
easily throughout the East. Unless they can restore
stability soon, there will be more fighting, burning
of villages, and army brutality and more Bengalis
will have cause to flee. The same will happen if
the government fails in its efforts to avert wide-
spread food shortages. On the other hand President
Yahya's moves towards a political accommodation may
work to reduce the refugee flow.
Bengali reaction to these moves will also become
clearer during the next few weeks. Yahya has ap-
pointed a civilian governor in the East--who has
been criticized in some quarters as a tired oZd
man, in others as a quisling?and has issued a new
amnesty proclamation for all insurgents except a
few hundred leaders. At the same time, the trial
of East Pakistani leader Mujibur Rahman continues,
and whatever Yahya's intentions he has not said
publicly that Mujib's life will be spared. Yahya
has taken several steps toward elections, but in
doing so he has disqualified over half the East
Pakistanis who won national and provincial assembly
seats last December, and apparently has postponed
the establishment of civilian government until some
time next year. If these steps convince Bengalis
that there is some hope for an acceptable political
solution, they will be less likely to flee to India.
The mistrust that has been built up, however, makes
the Bengalis skeptical of anything Yaha says.
(continued)
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The Bengalis in contact with our consulate in Calcutta
tell us they are still willing to negotiate?pre-
sumably for something less than total independence--
but say that Mujib must be freed first and that there
must be an amnesty for everyone--conditions Yahya is
unlikely to accept. A Bengali representative cau-
tioned, however, that if we talk to the Bangla Desh
foreign minister he may take an even harder Zine and
demand complete independence.
The leftists pose no immediate threat to the Bengali
insurgent movement, but they are growing stronger.
The most extreme Communist faction already has a
fairly successful guerrilla band in the fieZd. Last
spring the leftists could be ignored by both the
Bangla Desh government and the Indians, but now
several groups of leftists have been included in a
Bangla Desh Liberation Front. Those who are pro-
Soviet were included partly because Moscow insisted
on this as the price for continued support. Although'
there is a good chance that the leftists could be
forestalled even if India delays military action,
some of Mrs. Gandhi's advisers will argue that any
delay will turn the insurgents further from India.
There are also some strong arguments against India's
going to war that may be persuasive with Mrs. Gandhi.
Yahya has made it clear that an invasion of East
Pakistan will mean war with West Pakistan as well,
and the Indians--although confident they can win--
recognise that fighting on the West Pakistan border
will be very costly. They are also worried about
Chinese intervention, and know that weather in the
Himalayas will not stop Chinese troop movements for
at least the next three months. The Indian Govern-
ment still appears to be divided on its assessment
of Chinese intentions, and its final estimate could
be crucial in deciding whether to risk war. We have
seen no indication that China intends to intervene
or is making any pre arations to do so,
The Soviets clearly do not want a war on the sub-
continent and will continue to urge restraint. The
Indians claim, however, that they have not threatened
to cut off arms supplies and in fact have promised
India more sophisticated weapons. The Indians may
not be sure what Moscow will do if India is clearly
the aggressor, but they apparently expect that they
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India and Pakistan
CHINA
Isla abaci* ?
Ar ored
Kharlan..(\
divisior
Sialkot.
Lahore
Jammu '-
an
Kashmir
.Quetta
PAKISTAN
IRAN
Khairpur ?
Units of the 1st Armored Div.
reported 9 Sept
Jhansi
Karachi
Hyderabad
551866 9-71 CIA
'MILES