THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 4 SEPTEMBER 1971

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005992843
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: September 4, 1971

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The President's Daily Brief
4 September 1971
48
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
4 September 1971
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
Today's Pravda article is Moscow's strongest public
blast at Peking in over a year. (Page 1)
Vice President Ky's harsh tirade against South Viet-
namese President Thieu is clearly designed to stir
Thieu's opponents into action. (Page 2)
The severe flooding in northern North Vietnam has
disrupted transportation and agriculture, but aid
is already flowing in from both China and the Soviet
Union. The flow of men into the infiltration system
may also be affected, although there is unlikely to
be any effect on supply movements to the southern
battlefields. (Page 3)
Pakistan is strengthening its defensive forces along
the West Pakistan - India border. (Page 5)
Some European views on the international monetary
situation are discussed. (Page 6)
na
Chi-
(Page 8)
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USSR-CHINA
The lengthy article by "I. Alexandrov"--a pseudonym
employed to indicate high-level party endorsement--
in today's Pravda is Moscow's strongest public blast
at China in over a year. It minces no words in in-
dicating that Moscow sees malicious intent in Pe-
king's invitation to President Nixon. The article
sets the Chinese bid to the US President in the con-
text of Peking's over-all foreign policy, which is
branded as primarily motivated by "anti-Sovietism."
It labels Chou En-Zai's citation of a "threat from
the north" in his recent interview with James Reston
as mythical, pointedly noting that the USSR has no
territorial claims against China.
A substantial section of the article attacks Peking's
attempts to undermine Soviet domination of Eastern
Europe. Although avoiding the stronger condemna-
tions of Peking's alleged efforts to establish an
"anti-Soviet axis" in the Balkans that have appeared
recently in the East European press, it accuses the
Chinese of "seeking to set socialist states at log-
gerheads." One principal theme in the article is
the exhortation that Communists should "enhance in
every way their vigilance against Maoism."
The article restates Soviet intentions to seek bet-
ter relations with China, but unlike some pronounce-
ments before the announcement of the President's
visit, carries no note of conciliation. Indeed,
the article seems somewhat defensive in justifying
Kremlin policy toward China, suggesting that the
leadership may be sensitive to criticism that it
has been too easy on Peking.
"Alexandrov's" treatment of China stands in marked
contrast to recent Soviet handling of US motivations
for improving relations with Peking. Pravda on 2
September, for example, presented a relatively bal-
anced account of Secretary Rogers' speech to the
American Legion, specifically noting his assurance
that US China policy does not mean any lessening
of interest in serious negotiations with the USSR.
Such treatment suggests that US efforts to reassure
Moscow on the visit are having some success and in-
dicates that Moscow does not want to damage its
wide-ranging contacts with Washington through harsh
polemics.
1
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SOUTH VIETNAM
Ky told members of the foreign press corps-
yesterday that he would destroy Thieu and "his
clique" even if "I have to sacrifice my life to
do it." Ky asserted that there is great unrest
among the people and the armed forces and ques-
tioned whether many generals are really loyal to
Thieu. The vice president gave his threat a sense
of immediacy by claiming that many unpredictable
events could take place, "perhaps tonight or
tomorrow," and warned his listeners that those
who lived near the palace should be prepared to
move.
Ky's public threat to use force to oust
Thieu is in keeping with his campaign
to force a change in Thieu's election
plans. Though he is clearly trying to
generate more positive opposition to
Thieu, Ky still seems to lack much
military support and would be unlikely
to disclose his intention publicly if
he really planned to mount a coup.
One of the vice president's chief po-
litical lieutenants is currently in
the US, and Ky 's remarks may have been
intended partly for US ears. He may
hope that by stirring up the South
Vietnamese political situation even
further, the US might be brought to
persuade Thieu to postpone and re-
organize the presidential election.
Although Ky may succeed in whipping
up strong antigovernment feeling among
some opposition elements, others will
be alarmed at his intemperate language
and take care not to be identified too
closely with him. Ky's press spokes-
man later attempted to soften the im-
pact of some of the vice president's
inflammatory statements.
2
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NORTH VIETNAM
Premier Pham Van Dong has characterized the
serious floods in the northern half of the country
as worse than the catastrophic flood and famine in
1945 that caused hundreds of thousands of deaths.
Government leaders have directed that every assist-
ance be provided to flood victims and that stock-
piles of cement and steel be drawn upon to reinforce
and repair dikes. The premier's ?office has warned
that looters and speculators will be severely pun-
ished.
US weather data during August indicate that the
northwest region of North Vietnam received up to 20
inches of rain above average; elsewhere precipitation
was near normal levels. The runoff from rivers flow-
ing down to. the coast presumably has caused serious
flooding in the Red River delta. Hanoi is experiencing
some flooding, and the main rail line from Hanoi to
China was disrupted on at least two occasions in re-
cent weeks.
The extent ?of crop damage cannot yet be
determined, but any losses are likely to
be made up by the USSR and China; flood
relief provides both with an opportunity
to demonstrate their continued support of
the North Vietnamese. The Chinese began
flood relief flights to Hanoi on 30 August
and dispatched 90 rail cars carrying steel
wire for use in flood control. Mao, Lin,
and Chou have expressed their official
sympathy and promised all possible aid.
The USSR, not to be outdone, is sending
via the Soviet Red Cross foodstuffs, med-
icine, fabrics and tents for the flood
victims.
It is highly unlikely that the floods
will affect continuing preparations in
southern North Vietnam for the coming
dry-season supply push into Laos and
southward. The Communists have estab-
lished military stockpiles in the North
Vietnamese panhandle that will enable
them to withstand any temporary dis-
ruption to the transport system in the
north.
(continued)
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Flooding in the northern part of the
country, however, may affect Hanoi's
infiltration timetable. Normally, the
dry-season flow of men begins in Octo-
ber, but the disruption of transporta-
tion and heavy rains may have interrupted
activities at the major training bases
in the north.
Infiltration figures for August indicate that
few personnel moved through the pipeline.
only three small
groups of infiltrators moving through the system;
these had a combined strength of less than 100--
411 specialists and most headed for Military Re-
gions 1 and 2 in South Vietnam.'
Over the'past few weeks, four North Vietnamese
infantry regiments have pulled out of South Viet-
nam's Quang Tri Province and now are in southern
North Vietnam. two regi-
ments of the 304th Division returned to Quang Binh
Province in mid-July, and one regiment of the 324th
Division moved north sometime in late July or early
August. Late last month, one regiment of the 320th
Division also headed northward. In each case, the
regiments are rejoining parent divisions that have
been in southern North Vietnam since mid-spring.
The four regiments entered Quang Tri'
Province 'from Laos or North Vietnam
shortly after Operation Lam Son 719
last March and applied heavy but spo-
radic pressure on South Vietnamese
outposts along the DMZ during the
summer. Their departure suggests .the
summer campaign in this area has ended
and the units have gone home to refit.
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PAKISTAN
The Pakistani Army has completed the precaution-
ary movement of additional forces into forward posi-
tions near the India - West Pakistan border,
The mission of these
troops--estimated to number about 5,000--is to blunt
and contain any Indian attack until Pakistani forces.
could counterattack. Pakistan has also completed the
organization of two new infantry divisions to replace
those sent last spring to East Pakistan and is now
forming a third.
In East Pakistan, Islamabad is organizing three
brigades--about 18,000 troops--consisting of non-
Bengali East Pakistanis. These troops are to be re-
sponsible for maintaining internal order in the event
of hostilities.
These preparations--defensive in nature--
stem from Pakistan's uncertainty about
India's intentions. Pakistani officials
assume, however, that India will continue
to support efforts by the Bengali guer-
rillas to gain control of a section of
East Pakistan. Such action could yet lead
to major hostilities in view of Islamabad's
belief?that the best way to defend East
Pakistan is to attack in the west
5
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS
Europeans are increasingly taking the posi-
tion--in part as a sop to France--that an over-all
adjustment of exchange parities should be accompa-
nied by some increase in the price of gold. In
recent remarks, some French, Dutch, British, and
German officials have all requested a gold-price
increase as part of a general settlement. For the
French, this position reflects long-standing views
on what is required. A high Dutch Finance Ministry
official claims that a "modest"--perhaps five-
percent--increase could be decisive in fostering
a joint Common Market adjustment offer. Some
British Treasury officials also are taking the
line that a small increase in the official gold
price might facilitate monetary reform.
Early removal of the US import surchage re-
mains a major aim. In an argument that may be used
increasingly, the Belgian Treasury director has
referred to the difficulty of effecting parity
changes while the surcharge persists and distorts
judgment on what the rate should be.
In the view of some European officials, there
will continue to be uncertainty about the proper
response to the US pending clarification of US ex-
pectations. According to a Dutch official, a de-
finitive statement is needed most urgently on what
the US wants in the monetary, commercial, and
burden-sharing fields and what it is prepared to
give "in addition to elimination of the surcharge."
Despite the emergence of common themes on the
European side, there are still no signs of .a recon-
ciliation of French differences with the other
European Community members. The Italians--who
have also called for a devaluation of the dollar
to accompany other currency revaluations--will
meet separately with the Germans and French this
weekend at the ministerial level. Paris, however,
presumably is still resisting any common Community
position that would require revaluing the franc.
France appears determined not to lose the edge in
intra-European ?trade it gains from the present
upward-trending German and Dutch currencies.
(continued)
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On the basis of monthly data now available,
it appears that European central banks absorbed
record amounts of dollars during August. British
reserves increased by $937 million despite debt re-
payments of $626 million. In France the increase
was $1.08 billion. The French increase resulted
from Bank of France support of the "commercial"
franc, which has hovered near its lowest permitted
level since the introduction of the two-tier market.
In Tokyo, the Bank of Japan reportedly continued to
buy dollars heavily yesterday to restrict the yen's
appreciation.
In another development, Canadian Prime Minister
Trudeau plans to take special measures to assist
industries hurt by the US import surcharge. The
measures are to be announced at the resumption of
Parliament on Tuesday, 7 September. Ottawa hopes
to cushion the impact of the surcharge on the eco-
nomy's recovery. No details are available, but
the measures will probably include tax relief.
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CHINA
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