THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 4 AUGUST 1971

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005992787
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: August 4, 1971

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The President's Daily Brief
4 August 1971
46
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THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
4 August 1971
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS.
The Communists appear to have sent reinforcements
from North Vietnam into northern Laos to try to
counter the offensive by government irregulars on
the Plaine des Jarres. (Page 1)
Southbound infiltration from North Vietnam appar-
ently declined to a trickle during July, but Hanoi
is ordering increased mobilization of reserve units
at home. (Page 2)
Some Viet Cong provincial committees and propaganda
agencies now in Cambodia may soon return to South
Vietnam. (Page 3)
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Soviet
Egypt?
Page
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Page
Peking?
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LAOS: PLAINE DES JARRES AREA
0 Miles 10
CI Government-held location
0 Communist-held location
.?1 Bouam Longa
71
71
Nong /
Pe
4/7
Khans Khay
?c)
Irregular
positions
sPhou Seu
Ban No
Xieng
ouangville
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LAOS
Intercepts indicate that the North Vietnamese
have moved a regiment of the 312th Division from
North Vietnam to the area east of the Plaine des
Jarres. The regiment had been garrisoned in Vinh
for the past year. The division's other two regi-
ments returned to Laos last winter and participated
in the Communist dry season offensive against the
Long Tieng complex.
The movement of this number of North Viet-
namese troops into Laos during the rainy
season is unusuaZ, and suggests the seri-
ousness with which the Communists view re-
cent gains by Vang Pao 's irregulars on
the Plaine. In view of the difficulty
the Communists have had in operating and
supplying front-line units during the mon-
soon season, it may be some time before
they can mount a sustained counteroffen-
sive.
Vang Pao's irregulars, meanwhile, have
pushed farther east of the Plaine. Ele-
ments of three irregular battalions have
taken up positions about six miles from
Xieng Khouangville and are now in position
to recapture the town if they are ordered
to do so.
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Infiltration Starts from North Vietnam
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
I
DRY
SEASON
, DRY
SEASON
DRY
,
SEASON
Totals
bou
for 1968
id for South
.1
and 1969 include
Vietnam only; those
troops
for
1970 and 1971
South Vietnam,
include troops bound for
Cambodia, and Southern
Laos.
r-- ---1
1
South
Cambodia,
Southern
t _ i
Vietnam,
and
Laos..,
:-
,
,
1
I
i
1
1
II
1 :S(i., uthern
1
,

1968
1969
1970 ,
1970 SVN, Southern 1971 SVN,
1968 SVN 1969 SVN Cambodia, Cambodia, Southern
and Southern Laos and Southern Laos
Laos . Laos
JAN
21,000
19,200
13,700 100
8;200
1,700
FEB
18,900
25,000
11,700
7,800
3,400
MAR
32,600
17,100
10,600 ----
2,900
----
APR
38,900
2,300
3,600 700
2,700
800
MAY
32,800
1,100
4,900 700
14,900
1,300
JUN
23,500
100
2,100 900
6,600
-
JUL
21,800
100
4,100 700
700
AUG
11,000
600
4,400 3,300
SEP
2,200
600
13,800 10,200
OCT
2,800
4,500
17,100 3,700
NOV
5,200
7,800
18,400 2,600
DEC-
30,100
6,200
11,400 2,800
1971
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
NORTH VIETNAM
Intercepts from the infiltration corridor
through southern Laos and northeastern Cambodia showed
less than 700 North Vietnamese infiltrators moving
south during July. Nearly 600 of these were en route
to the central highlands or northern South Vietnam,
and there were fewer than 100 troops heading for Cam-
bodia and southern South Vietnam.
The pattern of southward movements we have
observed over the past few months has sug-
gested a seasonal tapering off of the in-
filtration effort as the rainy season
peaked. It is possible that a few groups
have recently been moving undetected as a
consequence of new Communist restrictions
on the use of lower power radios, but the
tenor of most intercepts during July indi-
cated that personnel manning the infiltra-
tion system were principally engaged in
preparing for the upcoming dry season ef-
fort rather than in processing infiltration
groups.
A new mobilization directive was sent in July
from Premier Pham Van Dong's office to North Viet-
namese Government agencies, farms, and commercial
establishments. Recipients were told to organize a
military reserve unit if they did not already have
one, to enlarge existing units, and to begin new
training programs in general military doctrine and
in small arms and antiaircraft weaponry.
An editorial on the directive appearing in
the official Communist Party newspaper on
29 July makes it clear that Hanoi's aim is
to inprove local defenses and facilitate
recruitment and conscription procedures
for the regular army. The regime may hope,
by hammering on the mobilization theme, to
keep popular energies focused on the war
effort and related domestic pursuits. It
may also be anticipating a higher level of
fighting throughout Indochina for which
adequate trained manpower must be made
available. If Hanoi is planning to increase
the pace of combat, we would expect to see
additional preparations in the months ahead,
including an increased flow of infiltration.
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SOUTH VIETNAM
Since mid-June intercepts from a number of Viet
Cong administrative units in Cambodia have referred
to plans to return to their former operating areas
in South Vietnam and along the border. Included
are several Viet.Cong.provincial administrative corn-.
mands and propaganda elements that had been in-south-
ern South Vietnam and border areas before they were
forced to move deep into Cambodia by the allied at-
tacks in April 1970.
These messages support earlier clandestine
reports that COSVN has ordered many of its
subordinate cadres in Cambodia to return
to their former areas in South Vietnam.
The reports assert that these cadre are to
assist in accelerating programs in subver-
sion, political action, and organization
of.the party network at.the grassroots.
Their first task will probably be to as-
sist in organizing Communist opposition to
the.South Vietnamese elections. A longer
term purpose, however, may be to help the
Viet Cong prepare for.more active politi-
cal work against the Saigon government as
US .military units continue.to withdraw.
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EGYPT-USSR
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COMMUNIST CHINA
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NOTES
Bolivia;
Guinea: There. has been_no-independent evidence
to support President Toure's claim, in calling for
an emergency meeting yesterday of the .UN Security
Council, to have intercepted naval messages fore-
shadowing-an.imminent foreign attack. Toure has been
predicting new attacks. ever since the Portuguese-
directed seaborne raid last fall, and Conakry's.grow-
ing concern. over its:internal weakness is reflected
in the intensified-purge? since mid-June of officials
alleged to have been involved in the raid. During
the past week,.. thefl regime has publicized 7confesSions",
by some of these detainees that they were in. league.
with the Portuguese or West Germans; veiled allusions
to an "American network" suggest that an attempt may,
also be made to implicate-theUS in Guinea's trou-
bles.
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COMMUNIST CHINA
(continued)
Al
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