THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 6 JULY 1971

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005992735
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: July 6, 1971

Declassified in Pari-- Sarazed Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RD-P79T0-5936A009700050001-5
The President's Daily Brief
6 July 1971
14
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
6 July 1971
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
North Vietnam's major dry season infiltration effort
appears to be winding down; only 5,400 new infiltrators
were detected in June. (Page 1)
Peking has dramatized its support of Hanoi's latest
peace initiative with an exceptionally prompt endorse-
ment of the seven-point proposal. (Page 2)
Peking has defined its terms for diplomatic relations
with Japan, stressing the Taiwan issue. (Page 3)
Yesterday's Japanese cabinet changes strengthen the
position of Sato's heir-apparent, Takeo Fukuda.
(Page 4)
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Infiltration Starts from North Vietnam
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
DRY r
SEASON
,
DRY
SEASON
DRY SEASON
Totals for 1968
bound for South
and 1969 'nclude troops
Vietnam only; those for
1970 and 1971
South Vietnam,
include troops bound for
Cambodia, and Southern
Laos.
,
South Vietnam,
Cambodia, and
Southern Laos .....,
,
,
q
?4 i
4
?
?
. Southern
JAN
FEB
MAR
? APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
1968
1968 SVN
21,000
18,900
32,600
38,900
32,800
23,500
' 21,800
11,000
2,200
2,800
5,200 ? ?
30,100
1969 SVN
19,200-
25,000
17,100
2,300
1,100
100
100
600
600
4,500
;7,800
6,200
1969
1970 SVN, c._ '
..,n
Cambodia, out ern
and Southern Laos
Laos '
, .
13,700 100
11 ,700
10,600 .---
3,600 700
4,900 700
2,100 900
4,100 700
4,400 .3,300
13,800 10,200
17,100 3,700
18,400 2,600
11,400 2,800
1970 1971
1971 SVN,
Cambodia, Southern
and Southern Laos
Laos
8,200 1,700
7,800 3,400
2:79000 -
20 800
13,1100
5,400 1,300
-
561622 7-71 CIA
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
INDOCHINA
Only 5,400 new North Vietnamese infiltrators
were detected moving through southern Laos in June.
nearly
5,000 of these are headed for the northern half of
South Vietnam, with the remainder going to the
southern half or to Cambodia.
The June pattern suggests that this year's
major dry season infiltration ,effort is
winding down. It is fairly typical for
Hanoi to get the majority of the troops
destined for the southern regions started
early, so that most of those who are mov-
ing at the end of the dry season and into
the rainy season are going to areas closer
to the North.
/the proc-
essing of stragglers from earlier groups
is also characteristic of a concluding
phase of infiZtration.
Hanoi may try to keep infiltration moving
at least sporadically during the rainy
season, particularly if it hopes to pro-
long the current offensive in northern
South Vietnam. Moreover, some 20 gaps
in the numbering series of recent infil-
tration groups--possibly representing
some 11,400 troops?could mean that the
missing groups will turn up on the trails
later in the summer.
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COMMUNIST CHINA - NORTH VIETNAM
Dramatizing Peking's close support of Hanoi's new
peace initiative, the authoritative People's Daily
carried an editorial -on 3 July endorsing the Viet-
namese Communists' seven-point proposal as the
"correct way for the peaceful settlement of the
Vietnam question." This exceptionally prompt re-
action suggests that Hanoi coordinated its new move
with Peking in advance. The Chinese waited five
months before acknowledging the ten-point plan pro-
posed by the Vietnamese in May 1969 and delayed for
three months their endorsement of the Communists'
eight-point plan of last September.
Also over the weekend, the Chinese signed their
second supplemental military aid agreement of the
year with the Vietnamese, under which Peking will
supply unspecified equipment and materials on a
grant basis. The normal military aid pact for
1971 was signed last October, and the first sup-
plementary agreement was reached in February.
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
COMMUNIST CHINA - JAPAN
A joint communiqug concluding the Peking visit
of a delegation of the Buddhist-based Komeito party
spelled out five conditions for establishing Sino-
Japanese diplomatic relations: Japanese recognition
that China is one and the People's Republic its sole
legitimate government, that Taiwan is a province of
China, that the Japanese - Nationalist Chinese treaty
of 1951 is invalid, that US military forces must be
withdrawn from Taiwan and the Taiwan Strait, and that
Peking must be seated in all UN organs and Chiang
Kai-shek's representatives expelled. If these con-
ditions were met, the Chinese held out the prospect
of a peace treaty and even the possibility of a non-
aggression pact.
By defining its terms for recognition,
Peking hopes to capitalize on widespread
sentiment in Japan for closer ties with
the mainland and make it more difficult
for the Sato government to follow a "two
Chinas" course, especially in the UN Gen-
eral Assembly voting this autumn. The
stress on the Taiwan issue in the com-
munique suggests that the Chinese consider
that other Sino-Japanese irritants, such
as the US-Japan Security Treaty and Ja-
panese "remilitarization," are not major
obstacles to restoring diplomatic rela-
tions.
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
JAPAN
The sweeping cabinet changes announced yester-
day further strengthen the position of Sato's heir-
apparent, Takeo Fukuda, who was moved from the Finance
to the Foreign Ministry. At the same time one of
Fukuda's main backers was named secretary general
of the governing Liberal Democratic Party, a post
vacated last week by Fukuda's chief rival following
the party's poor showing in the Upper House elections
of 27 June. Another shift moved defense chief Naka-
sone to a party job where ?he can broaden his base of
support for a future bid for the prime ministership.
The government's weak election performance
almost certainly precipitated more exten-
sive changes than were planned a few weeks
ago. It had been expected, for example,
that Foreign Minister Aichi would be re-
tained in order to present the Okinawa
reversion agreement to the Diet this fall.
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
NOTES
South Vietnam: Vice President Ky announced
yesterday that Truong Vinh Le, a prominent southern
Catholic politician, will be his running mate in the
presidential election on 3 October. Le, who was
chairman of the National Assembly in the last four
years of the Diem government, narrowly missed elec-
tion to the Senate last August when he headed a
Thieu-backed list of Catholic moderates. Le's se-
lection will probably bring Ky support from some
southerners, Catholics, and splinter groups that
would otherwise vote for Thieu, and indicates that
Ky will continue to try to weaken Thieu's bid for
re-election by raiding his former supporters.
Pakistan:?
Indonesia: Initial returns from Saturday's
parliamentary elections show the government party,
Sekber Golkar, running well ahead. The Suharto
government's apparent victory will put it in a
stronger position to press forward with its prior-
ity programs--economic improvement and a political
restructuring aimed at forging a single mass party
and bridging the social and religious cleavages
that have marked the traditional parties.
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