THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 15 MAY 1971

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005992645
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: May 15, 1971

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The President's Daily Brief
15 May 1971
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THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
15 May 1971
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
Sadat has acted to consolidate his purge, and is
seeking particularly to exploit popular grievances
against the ousted interior minister. (Page 1)
Brezhnev's proposal to start negotiations on force
reductions in Europe seems designed to shift the
burden of the dialogue to NATO. (Page 2)
On Page 4 we discuss Hanoi's statement of Thursday
on the prisoner-of-war issue.
In South Vietnam, the breach between Thieu and Ky
is being widened by attempts to curtail Ky's actions.
(Page 5)
The Israelis have made a bid to obtain transit fees
for that portion of Tapline that crosses the Golan
Heights. (Page 6)
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EGYPT
President Sadat took further steps yesterday to con-
solidate his bloodless purge. He placed under house
arrest the dismissed minister of war and a number of
senior officers in the ministries of war and interior.
The National Assembly dropped 17 of its members and
elected Social Affairs Minister Hafiz Badawi as the
new speaker. US officials in Cairo believe that
Sadat has effectively destroyed his opposition.
In his speech to the nation, Sadat appeared to be
laying the groundwork for additional moves against
some of the deposed officials, especially unpopular
Interior Minister Goma. Sadat claimed to have foiled
a coup attempt, and accused Goma and AZi Sabri of
plotting to thwart him from announcing Thursday night
a referendum on reforming the Arab Socialist Union.
As Egypt's security officer Goma had attracted much
criticism, especially from the country's youth;
Sadat's denunciation of Goma and his decision to
curb certain internal practices is clearly designed
to exploit popular grievances against the ousted min-
ister.
In a further effort to cultivate popular support,
Sadat gave major attention to his pledge to democ-
ratize Egypt's political institutions. He stated
that "sooner or later" the Arab Socialist Union
would be dissolved and free elections held under his
personal supervision.
We believe that Moscow will maintain a low profile
while it assesses the significance of the purge,
which it apparently did not anticipate. The Soviets
can be expected to take a more active hand in inter-
nal Egyptian affairs, however, if Sadat's moves a -
pear to threaten their sosition in Egy t
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USSR-NATO,
We believe Brezhnev's proposal Friday to
"start negotiations" on Mutual Balanced
Force Reductions was keyed to the June
NATO ministerial meeting in Lisbon. Aware
that the US and some of its allies have
cited Moscow's reluctance to engage in
substantive discussions on the subject of
force reductions as a reason to move cau-
tiously on the pet Soviet project of a
Conference on European Security, Brezhnev
apparently wants to shift the burden of
the dialogue to NATO.
These latest remarks, in a speech at
Tbilisi, added nothing to the substance
of the position which the Soviet leader
took at the 24th party congress--that Mos-
cow favors reducing "armed forces and
armaments" in areas of dangerous confron-
tation such as central Europe.
We think that Brezhnev's remarks were pre-
pared in advance of Senator Mansfield's
amendment proposing a unilateral reduction
of US forces in Europe and are not an ef-
fort to take into account the new circum-
stances created by the Mansfield move.
In the past the Soviets have said that
discussions on reductions could take place
either in a body to be established by a
Conference on European Security or in any
other forum acceptable to all interested
parties. They have usually qualified this
latter position, however, by insisting
that such a conference should precede dis-
cussion of "complex" problems such as
mutual force reductions.
In another development related to NATO the
European members, who pledged last December to raise
$420 million for the infrastructure portion of the
European Defense Improvement Program by the time of
the NATO Defense Ministers' meeting later this month,
have a shortfall of some $32 million at this time.
(continued)
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Most of the shortfall results from Belgium's
failure to plan sufficient funds in its de-
fense budget. If the full subscription is
to be met by the deadline?and the Mansfield
amendment has increased pressure to do so--
the West Germans probably will have to pick
up the deficit. Bonn has already financed
most of the program either directly or in-
directly.
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NORTH VIETNAM
Hanoi's statement of Thursday on the prisoner-of-war
issue seems designed mainly to take some of the steam
out of recent South Vietnamese initiatives on the sub-
ject. The conditions Hanoi lays down for a prisoner
turnover are more specific than previously proposed
in advance of exchanges but are not much more strin-
gent than those under which actual transfers have
taken place.
Hanoi has good intelligence on the state of pris-
oners held in the South and must be aware that few
of the 1,770 prisoners Saigon says it is willing to
release have expressed a willingness to return to
the North. Many remain subject to discipline of the
Communist apparatus, and can be ordered to refuse
repatriation. Saigon says that 570 sick and wounded
could be released directly; the Communists may well
calculate that South Vietnam cannot produce that
many who are willing to return, and that the offer
can then be branded as a propaganda ploy.
Hanoi's statement is concerned only with Vietnamese
prisoners and there is no hint of a change in policy
on US captives in North Vietnam. Even if Saigon's
proposal is full implemented, we see little likeli-
hood that Hanoi would permit an early release of
Americans as a reciprocal gesture.
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SOUTH VIETNAM
Several aides of Ky have complained recently
to US Embassy officers that Prime Minister Khiem
has instructed members of the cabinet not to invite
Ky to government-sponsored public functions. They
also report that orders have gone out to all prov-
ince chiefs not to receive Ky or provide him with
any of the facilities normally given to a vice pres-
ident.
The most recent incident involved the cancella-
tion of a scheduled meeting of a group of Vietnam-
ese Nationalist Party politicians in Saigon on 12
May, which Ky was to have addressed. The owner of
the meeting hall refused to open the doors, report-
edly on instructions from the Saigon police. A
Saigon paper closely identified with Ky accused
Thieu of responsibility for the refusal. Issues of
the paper have been seized with increasing frequency
since Ky began his series of harsh attacks on the
government several weeks ago.
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Israel Claiming Transit Fees for Tapline Segment Crossing Golan Heights
36 40
-TURKEY
44
skender
.Aleppo
Latakia
Mediterranean
Sea
Day; az Zawr. .
Kirkuk.
.Palmyra
LE-BA ON
Beirut
Sidon
terminal
ISRAEL
*Damascus
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Approx. 32 miles of Tapline
crossing Israeli-occupied Syria
GOLAN ?
\,t HEIGHTS
Israell-oedupied)
Al Habbaniy
Baghda
*Amman
JORDAN
Dead
Sea
ARABIA
Saudi Arabian
. oilfields gs,
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ISRAEL
Israeli Deputy Finance Minister Dinstein has
asked the US-owned Tapline Company to discuss the
? question of transit fees for that portion of the
pipeline crossing Israeli-occupied Syria. When the
company representative noted the absence of Israeli
sovereignty over the territory, Dinstein called this
position "unacceptable" and asked for further dis-
? cussion after consideration by Tapline management.
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Israeli intentions in raising the issue
of transit fees at this time apparently
go beyond the question of revenue, which
we estimate to be $3-4 million per year.
The claim seems designed to reinforce Is-
rael's position that it will retain the
Golan Heights in any peace negotiations.
Company officials point out that Dinstein
insisted that the Golan Heights must be
considered "part of Israel" for practical
purposes in contrast to Sinai, where the
Israelis are conducting affairs under es-
tablished Egyptian laws.
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NOTES
Communist China - Iran:
Argentina:
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