THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 15 JANUARY 1971

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005992425
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: January 15, 1971

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The President's Daily Brief
15 January 1971
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THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
15 January 1971
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
On Page I/
The, Pathet Lao
South Vietnam's
designed to
peace talks. (Page 2)
The Soviets have diluted a
Berlin access. (Page 4)
In the Dominican Republic,
revive the possibility of
pre-Christmas offer on
a successful police raid
has at least temporarily crippled the leadership of
the organization primarily responsible for terrorism
In; recent years. (Page 6)
On Page 7 we appraise Jordanian reports of Iraqi'
troop withdrawals from Jordan.
Yesterday morning's cease-fire agreement in Jordan
was effective during its first day. (Page 8)
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NORTH
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116
MR 3
SOUTH
CHINA
SEA
SOUTH VIETNAM
?
8
MILES
16-
14-
12?
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SOUTH VIETNAM
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CAMBODIA
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LAOS
The Pathet Lao representative in Vientiane,
Soth Phetrasy, recently commented
hat the US would have to weigh in with Sou-
vanna, who was taking an "intransigent stand," if
there were to be any further progress toward Lao
peace talks. According to Soth, the Pathet Lao un-
derstood the concern in both Vientiane and Washing-
ton that a bombing halt in Xieng Khouang Province,
as proposed by the Communists as part of the security
precautions for talks in Khang Khay, would jeopardize
the headquarters of the irregulars at Long Tieng.
He argued, however, that the bombing could be resumed
any time Souvanna felt that the negotiations were
getting nowhere.
Soth 's comment about Souvanna's intransi-
gence is a reference to the last Pathet
Lao meeting with the Prime Minister on 31
December. At that session the Communists
dropped their insistence that the bombing
halt also apply to Samneua Province, but
failed to evoke any counteroffer from Sou-
vanna.
appear to
be part of a fresh Communist effort to
revive the possibility of talks at Khang
Khay. Both Soth and the Pathet Lao spe-
cial negotiator have recently been com-
plaining of Souvanna'S adamant stand to
various Lao officials in Vientiane, pcis,,
sibly as much in the hope of convincing
Souvanna's rightist critics that there is
something to be gained by negotiations as
in the hope of driving them further from
Souvanna.
It is possible that the Communists are now
merely going through the motions of trying
to get talks under way in order to justify
a forthcoming campaign against yang Pao 's
irregulars. A unilateral bombing halt in
Xieng Khouang wouZd, of cOurse, be a boon
to the Communists if their aim is to move'
additional forces--such as the North Viet-
namese 812th Division--onto the Plaine des
Jarres uncontested and to position supplies
for a major drive against Long Tieng.
(continued)
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It is doubtful that the Communists believe
Souvanna would stop the bombing without
some concessions on their part, such as
agreeing not to introduce new troops into
Xieng Khouang or accepting a local cease-
fire. This would give yang Pao's forces
a respite during a time when the Communists
are usually taking advantage of good weather
for offensive operations. Whether the Com-
munists are prepared to discuss such steps
is not clear, however, in part because Sou-
vanna has not yet explored the possibilities.
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USSR - BERLIN - WEST GERMANY
At a four-power advisers' meeting on 13 January,
the Soviets diluted an offer on access which they
had advanced before the holidays. Soviet Ambassador
Abrasimov had suggested on 19 December that East Ger-
many might be willing to guarantee "sealed cargo
transport" between West Germany and Berlin and to
eliminate "certain freight documents." In the latest
meeting, the Soviets insisted that East German offi-
cials would retain the right to inspect cargoes be-
fore sealing and that only insignificant changes in
the handling of documents were possible.
The Soviets offered nothing to advance
the pace of negotiations; their remarks
suggest that they have Little immediate
interest in negotiating on access arrange-
ments in a four-power context. Although
they proposed that drafting begin on the
Language of a four-power statement on prin-
ciples, they showed no inclination to of-
fer any concessions on substance. They
continued to rehash other standard posi-
tions such as the Limitations to be placed
on the West German presence in Berlin.
These tactics may reflect an assessment
that Allied opposition to access talks be-
tween Bonn and Pankow can be overcome.
The Soviets presumably would not wish to
prejudice the East German negotiating posi-
tion in advance, if there were a possibil-
ity that bilateral talks on access would
get under way in the near future.
(continued)
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DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
On Wednesday Dominican police arrested six
leaders of the extremist Dominican Revolutionary
Movement (MPD). The US Embassy in Santo Domingo
notes that the MPD national leadership has been at
least temporarily crippled.
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IRAQ JORDAN
Jordanian Prime Minister Tal told Ambassador
Brown Wednesday that the Iraqis were steadily with-
drawing their troops from Jordan, and that he be-
lieved they were heading for total evacuation. Tal
said he expected to take over the Mafraq area in
about a week.
Jordanian officials have been making sim-
ilarly optimistic statements for some time.
Although Iraqi troops have been reduced
from about 25,000 last fall to somewhat
less than 10,000 now--the lowest level
since they arrived in June 1967--the force
in Jordan is still substantial. The test
of the Iraqis' intentions will be whether
they in jgct leave their main base at
Mafraq.
A decision by Baghdad to withdraw most of
its forces would be based on fear that the
Jordanian Army might move against the
troops, on concern over the soldiers' low
morale, and on renewed apprehension over
rising Kurdish dissident activity in north-
ern Iraq. Even if TaZ's optimism is gen-
erally warranted, Baghdad may leave at
least a token force in Jordan if only
to maintain its anti-Israeli credentials
in Arab councils.
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NOTES
Jordan: The army and the fedayeen have started
to carry out the provisions of the cease-fire agree-
ment reached yesterday morning, and Amman began re-
turning to normal during the day. Premier Tal is in
an ebullient mood over achieving the agreement de-
spite the efforts of the Egyptian cease-fire ob-
server to water down some sections the commandos
had acce ted.
Many army elements similarly dismiss the
agreement as only a temporary "piece of paper."
Chile: The Bethlehem Steel Company has been
given until 1 February to conclude a contract for
sale of its iron mine and related assets in Chile
on government terms. On that date the government
steel company will begin direct supervision of all
Bethlehem operations. Payment for the assets, whose
value will be determined by the government, will be
made in ore or money at Chile's option and will ex-
tend over 30 years at three percent interest. Beth-
lehem officials, who had hoped to operate normally
under the Allende administration, have termed the
Chilean plan "confiscatory."
USSR-Cuba:l
the Soviet? N-class submarine previously thought to
have operated in the Caribbean late last month (re-
ported in The President's Daily Brief of 11 January)
was southeast of Bermuda at that timeand probably
did not operate ?in the Caribbean.
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Top Secret
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