THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 9 DECEMBER 1970

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005977841
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: December 9, 1970

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The President's Daily Brief
9 December 1970
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THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
9 'December 1970
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
Published reports show no increase in the 1971 Soviet
defense budget but do indicate continued growth in
military research and development. (Page 1)
Semenov pulled out all stops at yesterday's SALT
meeting in arguing for an early, separate agreement
on limiting ABM. (Page 2)
The situation in Jordan is discussed on Page 4.
Pakistan's election results will jolt the country's
military. (Page 5)
The Soviets are increasing economic ties with Yugo-
slavia in the aftermath of President Nixon's visit.
(Page 7)
The latest on Soviet naval
Caribbean is reported on Pag
activity in the
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USSR
At yesterday's meeting of the Supreme So-
viet, Finance Minister Garbuzov announced
a defense budget of 17.9 billion rubles
for 1971, the first year since 1965 that
the Soviets have not announced an increase
in military appropriations. The declared
intention of holding to last year's level
is consistent with the image of moderation
which the Soviets are trying to project at
the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks. Gar-
buzov's claim that the 1971 budget is one
"of peaceful economic and cultural develop
ment" fits the theme.
The published defense budget, however, ex-
cludes most spending for. military research
and development and the space. 9rogram.
Yesterday!s'reports referred only to a.
growth rate of 8..3 percent for "overall
state expenditures on research."
We estimate that the total Soviet defense
expenditures in 1971, including military
R&D and space, will be the equivalent of
about $68 billion in US costs--an increase
of between one and two percent over 1970.
Most of the increase we attribute to ex-
panded military research and development.
Soviet pZanners have proposed .?a growth
rate of 6.9 percent for industrial produc-
tion in 1971, considerably less than the
annual average of 8.6 percent planned for
1968-70. Agricultural production is ex-
pected to grow by only 5.5 percent in 1971
compared with this year's target of 8.5
percent. The 1971 goals for industry and
agriculture reflect a relatively sober
assessment of the potential of the economy
which has disappointed the leadership in
recent years.
For the fourth consecutive year, the pro-
duction of consumer goods is slated to
grow at a higher rate than producers'
goods in 1971. This target, in conjunc-
tion with a modest rate of growth planned
for wages, indicates an attempt to ease
inflationary pressures. The Supreme So-
viet was given no information on the forth-
coming five-year (1971-75) plan but it
was said that the plan will be ready for
presentation at the 24th Party Congress
next March.
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SALT
At yesterday's SALT meeting, Semenov pulled out
all the stops in arguing for an early, separate
agreement on limiting ABM. He embellished on the
familiar theme that since there already exists a
"definite closeness" in the positions of the two
sides on ABM, it would be "irrational and unwar-
ranted" to miss the opportunity for a separate
agreement.
Semenov tried to bait the hook by leaving the
clear impression that, if the US showed itself will-
ing to give serious consideration to the Soviet
proposal, he would come across with concrete details,
including "appropriate numerical values." Soviet
delegate Grinevsky was even more explicit in promis-
ing after yesterday's formal session that?if. the
US would listen--the Russians were prepared to pre-
sent "numerical limitations in full detail."
Semenov again displayed sharp sensitivity over
prospects for Safeguard. He warned against any ex-
tensive deployment of ABM systems as a tactic to
gain advantage in the talks, and pointed,out sharply
that any-such move would "seriously complicate"
SALT. Semenov singled out for criticism the con-
tention that extensive ABM deployment would present
no great problems inasmuch as a system could subse-
quently be dismantled, and claimed that this reason-
ing "cannot be taken seriously."
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COMMUNIST CHINA
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JORDAN
Fighting in Jordan has diminished for now, to a
few small skirmishes. Jarash is reported to be com-
pletely under army control with many troops evident
in the city. Small clashes occurred-west of Jarash
yesterday, but none appeared to be serious. The ar-
rival of truce supervisor Bahi Ladgham today should
help the Higher Arab Supervisory Committee in restor-
ing the cease-fire. Late yesterday afternoon, the
Higher Military Committee agreed to draw up a time-
table to complete implementation of the several
cease-fire agreements.
Fedayeen propaganda organs continue to accuse
the army of waging a war of extermination against
the commandos, and there is growing evidence that
some army officers may be pushing a hard line on the
fedayeen.
that the procrastination and moderation of the Jor-
danian Army General Staff in handling the fedayeen
has caused a number of unit commanders to take ac-
tion against the commandos on their own initiative,
particularly in the Jarash area. At the same time,
the Popular Resistance, the Jordanian,militia that
acts as a local guard unit in villages, is becoming
increasingly belligerent in its behavior toward the
commandos and has been responsible for some clashes.
New fighting is still a possibility at any,
time. The fedayeen are likely to resist,
at Least in some areas, as -the Jordanian
Army slowly tightens its grip on the coun-
tryside. The danger of an explosion will
increase if: the commandos are convinced
that the army is determined to destroy
their organizations.
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PAKISTAN
The Awami League, which advocates greater au-
tonomy for East Pakistan, seems likely to win an
absolute majority of the seats in the election held
Monday for Pakistan's 313-member constituent assem-
bly. When all returns are in, it may have swept al-
most all seats in the country's more populous east
wing. Former foreign minister Ali Bhutto's left-
wing Pakistan People's Party will apparently hold
over 80 of the 144 seats allocated to West Pakistan.
Such sweeping victories in Pakistan's
first direct election would constitute a
striking mandate for provincial autonomy
and for radical economic and social change.
The results will jolt Pakistan's military,
however, which has been apprehensive about
the elections since President Yahya de-
cided to take this step toward civilian
government a year ago. The moderate and
conservative religious parties that the
military hoped might obstruct radical
change during the assembly have won only
a scattering of seats and will have little
influence. Military leaders will fear
both Awami League attempts to weaken cen-
tral government authority and radical
economic reform advocated by Bhutto.
The military would be reluctant to risk
popular reaction that might follow any
overt interference and may thus be willing
to let the assembly proceed. The League
and Bhutto's party may attempt to cooper-
ate at the beginning--there are no serious
disputes between the two at this stage--
but the military will be watching for
evidence that the sessions are bogging
down, giving it a pretext for stepping in
and dissolving the assembly.
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Soviets
Sudan's
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USSR-SUDAN
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YUGOSLAVIA
Premier Ribicic- told Secretary Hardin last Fri-
day that Belgrade :had reaped arLunexpected dividend
from President Nixon's 'visit to Yugoslavia: Moscow
apparently- decided it could* not afford to lag behind
the US in economic ties with the Yugoslays, and. has
suddenly become more .accommodating in all commercial
matters.
In the past two months Belgrade has re-
ceived a flurry of Soviet delegations pro-
moting cooperation on scientific and tech-
nical matters, manufacturing projects, and
other economic concerns. Belgrade an-
nounced yesterday that final negotiations
on a new five-year trade agreement with
the USSR would begin on 14 December, with
signature expected soon.
On political matters, on the other hand, ?Ribicic
told Hardin that his government saw no change in So-
viet policy toward Yugoslavia and remains suspicious
of the Kremlin's intentions. For example, Ribicic
said Moscow had approved Bulgaria's renewal of its
claim to Yugoslav Macedonia.
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USSR-Cuba:
NOTE
/ One of the Soviet
submarines is having engine problems and has pulled
into Antilla in northeastern Cuba. Three Soviet
surface ships also arrived at Antilla yesterday--
the submarine tender which has been in or near Cuban
waters since September, a guided missile frigate,
and an oiler.
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