THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 20 JANUARY 1970

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005977254
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: January 20, 1970

?Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/04/27 : CIA-RDP79T00936A007900160001-3
The President's Daily Brief
20 January 1970
49
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THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
20 January 1970
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
The Communists seem about ready to step up the pace
in South Vietnam. (Page 1)
The Chinese road in Laos
(Page. 2)
Testing of Soviet missiles continues. (Page 3)
East-Germany's. Walter Ulbricht uses a rare press con-
ference- to. reiterate his terms for negotiating with
Willy Brandt. (Page. 4)
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SOUTH VIETNAM
We have ample evidence that a widespread inten-
sification of Communist military activity is likely,
probably at or before the Tet holidays--6-8 February.
Some enemy units have been ordered to make attacks
no later than 6 February, and an unusually explicit
document found near Hue states that "we are ready
for the Tet offensive." The reporting suggests the
new effort will be more highly coordinated than past
"highpoints."
Our analysis indicates much of the action
will be aimed against South Vietnamese
forces. Two recent Liberation Radio
broadcasts strongly hinted that Saigon's
pacification program was damaging the
enemy's ability to control important seg-
ments of the population, and they called
for renewed military vigor to counter it.
1
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AREA CHINA
OF
MAP
Communist Chinese Road Construction in Northern Laos
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Communist-controlled area
Contested territory
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LAOS
a Communist survey team was
placing surveying markers some 17 miles south of
Muong Houn on 8 January. Local villagers claim that
the Pathet Lao have stated the road will be completed
to Pak Beng "some time in 1970." In addition, Pathet
Lao officials are rounding up villagers who have fled
the Muong Houn area over the past year, possibly to
draft them for further road construction.
This is the first evidence that the Commu-
nists are actively planning to extend the
road beyond Muong Houn this year.
2
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USSR
On 18 January the Soviets conducted the ninth
test of the modified SS-11 ICBM since July--a rate
of testing that suggests a priority development pro-
gram. As in previous tests, the missile flew some
3,400 miles from Tyuratam to Kamchatka.
The modifications involve both the
and the payload, but their purpose
yet clear.
missile
is not
Furthermore, the re-entry vehicle has a
higher velocity during re-entry than does
the standard SS-11 re-entry vehicle, and
this would be less vulnerable to ABM de-
fenses.
If the development of penetration aids is
the goal of this program, and if testing
continues at the present rate, operational
status could be achieved by late this year.
An unidentified missile was launched from
Plesetsk to Kamchatka on 16 January.
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EAST GERMANY
East German leader Ulbricht said yesterday in a
press conference in East Berlin that Pankow is will-
ing to negotiate with Bonn. He stressed, however,
that East Germany will continue to press its "mini-
mum demands," including diplomatic recognition. More-
over, Ulbricht indicated he is in no hurry to begin
talks. He said the East Germans will await the out-
come of the Moscow-Bonn negotiations on the renunci-
ation of force agreement.
The major practical effect of Ulbricht's
temporizing may be that the Poles will find
it easier to deal with the West Germans
when their general political negotiations
begin early in February, simply because Ul-
bricht will be unable to interject his de-
mands into the negotiating process.
The East Germans had indicated earlier that
they wished to engage Bonn in talks before
the Poles and other Eastern Europeans did
so. The switch in tactics now suggests
that Ulbricht has failed to persuade his
allies to put East German interests ahead
of their own.
There is evidence that Ulbricht cleared
his remarks with Moscow, and the Soviets
may have exerted some pressure on? him to
switch tactics.
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NOTES
Dominican Republic:
Panama: Pressure is increasing for the resump-
tion of talks with the US about revising the 1903
Canal Treaty. On Friday, Foreign Minister Tack
asked Ambassador Sayre when the US would be ready
for such discussions. He said his government wants
to announce the date to the public. Strongman Tor-
rijos is aware that the Provisional Junta Government
has not accomplished much in its 15 months in power,
and he may wish to use his commitment to revision
of the treaty in a bid for sustained public support.
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Top Secret
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