THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 29 SEPTEMBER 1969

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005977011
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: September 29, 1969

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The President's Daily Brief
29 September 1969
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WEST GERMANY
Kiesinger's Christian Democrats emerged again as the
leading party in yesterday's Bundestag election but the
shape of the next government is still uncertain.
? With 46.1 percent of the vote, the Christian Democrats
(CDU) were off 1.5 percent from their 1965 showing. The
Social Democrats (SPD), obviously benefiting from their con-
structive role in the grand coalition since 1966, scored
their most impressive tally yet, with 42.7 percent of the
vote, an increase of 3.4 percent over four years ago. The
neo-Nazi National Democrats (NPD), by failing to gain the
five percent necessary for entry into parliament, suffered
a crippling blow in their once promising effort to become a
force in national politics.
The small Free Democratic Party (FDP) got only 5.8 per-
cent of the vote as compared with 9.5 percent in 1965. As
a result of its poor showing, it is likely to become even
More fractious and thus,less attractive as a coalition part-
ner for either of the large parties. An SPD-FDP link-up
while still possible, would have only a very narrow, unstable
?parliamentary majority. Demoralized by the party's dismal
showing, it is even possible that several deputies of con-
servative bent will prove susceptible to attractive offers
from the CDU. The shift of only seven Free Democrats could
give the, CDU a majority in its own right.
A renewal of the grand coalition of Christian Democrats
and Socialists faces several difficult but probably not
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insurmountable problems, including what to do about inflation,
the bitter controversy over possible revaluation of the mark,
and the differing assessments over prospects for rapproche-
ment with the East. The Socialists likely would demand a
nearly co-equal status in such a government on the basis of
their newly won seats. In any event, coalition negotiations
could well extend well beyond the start of the new parlia-
ment on 20 October.
A significant aspect of the election outcome is the poor
showing of the radical parties of right and left, thus bely-
ing oft-expressed fears that the grand coalition would tend
to encourage the growth of political extremists. Also, the
success of the Socialists, combined with the decline of the
FDP and the failure of the NPD, probably improves the pros-
pects of enacting basic reform in the electoral laws toward
a system closer to the essentially two-party systems which
prevail in Britain and the US.
CZECHOSLOVAKIA
As the results of the recent central committee plenum
slowly seep out, it seems clear that the ultraconservatives
registered significant gains, but Husak appears to have re-
tained control of the party. Among the 29 members dropped
from the central committee were former foreign minister Hajek
and Josef Smrkovsky. One of the major targets of the ex-
tremists, Smrkovsky will also lose his position as deputy
chairman of the federal assembly.
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Dubcek lost his seat on the presidium and hispost.as
chairman of the federal assembly. He was. notpurged from
the central committee, however, which probably reflects
Husak's influence, Dubcek's place in the presidium will be
taken by the relatively moderate Josef Kempny. Kempny is
now one of only four men who hold seats on both the party
presidium and the secretariat. Also named a deputy premier,
Kempny should be one of the most powerful political figures
in Czechoslovakia.
The new federal government appointed over the weekend
also seems to be fairly moderate. Most of the men replaced
had been under attack for their roles in the poor showing of
the economy. Premier Cernik, Defense Minister Dzur, and
Foreign Minister Marko, who had come under political attack,
managed to hold on to their jobs.
WARSAW PACT EXERCISE
On Saturday, military units from the Soviet Union,
Czechoslovakia, East Germany, and Poland wound up the six-
day exercise dubbed Oder Neisse 69. It was the largest exer-
cise Pact forces have ever held in Poland and one of the
largest they've ever held anywhere.
The maneuvers were highly publicized, and seemed de-
signed to demonstrate Pact unity and combat readiness rather
than to train troops.
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Northern Laos
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LAOS
Evidence that North Vietnam is sending sizable troop
reinforcements into north Laos continues to accumulate.
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In the meantime, General yang Pao's government forces
continue to clean up around several recently captured high-
ground areas on the northern fringes of the Plaine des Jarrep,
and enemy resistance on all fronts in the Plaine seems to
have slackened for the moment. Government units also appear
to be on the verge of retaking Muong Soui, the former neutral-
ist headquarters which was overrun in late June.
The enemy has had some sizable losses in equipment and
supplies during recent government operations in northern Laos.
Our analysts, taking a look at the categories and their valu-
ation, have concluded that these losses as of mid-September
totaled some $6.5 million. These are some examples:
Item
Medical supplies
Ammunition
PT-76 tanks
Trucks
Recoilless rifles
Most of this
and much of it was
Quantity
551 tons
2,156 tons
14
109
411
material was
still usable.
VIETNAM
Value,
US dollars.
1.5 million
1.1 million
739 thousand
545 thousand
428 thousand
abandoned by the Communists,
The Chinese have given the North Vietnamese delegation
to Peking's National Day ceremonies
a warm
welcome The dele-
gation, headed by Premier Pham Van Dong, was met at the
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airport Saturday. by Chou En-lai and other high-ranking offi-
cials. At 'a banquet Chou gave the Vietnamese that evening,
he reasserted China's "powerful backing" for North Vietnam
and its call for Hanoi to persevere until final victory is
achieved.
The day before the delegation reached Peking, China
and North Vietnam announced a new agreement covering economic
and military aid for 1970; no specifics on the nature or scope
of the aid are provided. Since 1965, China has accounted
for about one fourth of the some $3 billion in economic and
military aid given North Vietnam by other Communist countries.
Almost half of China's aid has been economic--mainly food-
stuffs.
Hanoi and Peking are fulsome in their praise of each
other in their propaganda coverage of both the delegation's
arrival and the aid agreement. In the case of China, this
contrasts markedly with its performance during last year's 1
October celebrations, when the subject of Vietnam was virtually
ignored.
ETHIOPIA
General Iyassu, the chief of staff of the Ethiopian Army,
recently reiterated his long-standing concern over unrest in
the army in a conversation with Ambassador Hall. Iyassu ad-
mits he no longer is in close touch with his younger officers,
but he says he can vouch for the fact that discontent is
growing among them. Ethiopia's growing financial difficulties
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have aggravated their unhappiness, but their basic complaint
seems to be that the government, which at best was never very
innovative, is losing whatever forward momentum it had as
Haile Selassie ages. Iyassu says the young officers are
studying the Libyan example closely and that a coup is a real
possibility.
Iyassu is something of an alarmist, and what he says must
be taken with reserve. It is true, however, that signs of un-
rest among the younger generation of Ethiopians have been ac-
cumulating at a fairly steady rate. Up to now Haile Selassie,
with practiced Byzantine craft, has kept the young people's
aspirations under control, aided by the inertia which pervades
Ethiopian society. Age has quite clearly slowed him down, how-
ever, and his touch is no longer as sure as it once was. Polit-
ical turmoil, anticipated when Haile Selassie's long reign ends,
could break out even before he goes.
BOLIVIA
Obviously, General Ovando has been paying a great deal of
attention to happenings in Peru. He has selected a US-owned
petroleum company--Bolivia Gulf--to be the symbolic bete noire
of his struggle to gain support from the people. Like the
coup itself, the pressure on Gulf was telegraphed well in
advance.
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At this stage, Ovando seems to be thinking less about
actual nationalization and more about ways to squeeze extra
government revenue out of the company. Ovando undoubtedly has
a number of obligations that only money can fulfill, among
them a promise to increase wages for miners. ,
SON/IT UNION
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Top Secret
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