THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 21 FEBRUARY 1969

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005976630
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: February 21, 1969

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The President's Daily Brief
21 February 1969
19
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FOR THE PRESIDENI VALI
22 February 1969
LATE NOTES FOR THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF OF
21 FEBRUARY 1969
I VAJDR PROBLEMS
FIDDLE EAST
There is nothing significant to report.
EUROPE
Ambassador Bruce says the British believe that the
French are intransigent on WEU partly because London passed
the substance of a conversation on 4 February between
De Gaulle and British Ambassador Soames to other members
of the Common Market. London claims that in this conver-
sation De Gaulle implied a threat to break up the Market.
The extensive press coverage that has now been given the
conflicting versions of the De Gaulle.- Soames conversation
is certain to exacerbate the WEU crisis.
SOVIET AFFAIRS
We lhivy seen nothiny overnight to change our assess-
ment of Soviet and East German intentions toward Berlin
VIETNAM
Phan Rang Air Base in coastal Ninh Thuan Province
received 74 rounds of 82-mm. mortar fire yesterday, damag-
iny nine oil:craft and wounding six personnel. Enemy forces
also attacked a. base camp of the 101st Airborne Division
97 miles east of Saigon. Spokesmen said the attackers were
driven off, suffering eight dead. US casualties were two
killed and 11 wounded.
press reporting)
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FON TILT: PRESIMAT ONLY
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II, OTHER IMPORTANT DEVELOPMENTS
GUATEMALA
PAKISTAN
Sheikh Mujibur Rehmen, the popular East Pakistan
opposition leader, and 33 others detained on charges of
plotting East Pakistan's secession, have been freed, it
was officially announced in Dacca today.
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
MAJOR PROBLEMS
MIDDLE EAST
Israel is likely to hit fedayeen bases'in Jordan in
retaliation for the explosions in Jerusalem today.
Israeli aircraft have been reconnoitering areas in
Jordan during the past few days,
Frequent ceasefire violations
and
incidents along the Israel-Jordan ceasefire line and in
Israeli-occupied Jordan during the past week have raised
tensionhigher than it has been for some months. Anti-I
raeli demonstrations in West Bank towns have increased con-
siderably and have taken on a more violent aspect than in
the past.
EUROPE
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
SOVIET AFFAIRS
We have re-examined the evidence pertaining to So-
viet and East German intentions vis-a-vis Berlin in the
context of the President's scheduled visit and the West
German presidential election there. This review has taken
into account the announcement on 20 February that the So-
viets and East Germans will conduct joint military exer-
cises in early March in an area of East Germany which will
put them in a position to harass or disrupt access to
Berlin from West Germany. Our conclusion is that the main
judgements
//remain valid. These essentially are that
Moscow will seek to avoid a major East-West confrontation
over Berlin at this time. The Communists have, however,
been making military preparations for greater harassment
of access to Berlin.
Authoritative Soviet and other East European offi-
cials have given numerous
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Communists do not wish to jeopardize East-West relations
at this time by challenging Allied rights of access to
Berlin. Given our assessment of Moscow's present politi-
cal posture, these assurances can, we believe, be given
some weight, especially in regard to any serious disrup-
tion of air access. The Soviets have not, at the same
time, ruled out actions, beyond those already instituted
by the East Germans, designed to demonstrate the Communists'
ability to disrupt the movement of people and goods between
West Germany and West Berlin. Indeed, they have implied
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
that some such actions will be taken. These could in fact
hamper Allied access, particularly on the ground, for
short periods.
The military indications we have observed are con-
sistent with Communist plans to impede traffic to Ber-
lin in the same way as in 1965 when there were disrup-
tions of travel in the autobahn and buzzing of West-
ern aircraft in the air corridors. Some variations on
the 1965 pattern are possible. If, however, the Soviets
and East Germans are contemplating extreme actions, such
as imposing a blockade of some duration on the land routes
or forcing a suspension of air traffic, we believe that
they could have made, or will soon make, detectable mili-
tary preparations beyond those already observed.
The range of action available to the Communists short
of a direct challenge to the West is considerable. They
are determined to teach the West Germans a lesson. In
so doing, they might create an incident going beyond the
harassments of 1961 and 1965, designed to underscore their
intent that this will be the last such election in Berlin.
Such an incident, however, would be isolated and carefully
controlled by the Soviets.
Any important moves will probably not be taken until
after the President leaves Berlin on 27 February. Moscow
will try to ensure its control of the situation. Never-
theless, Berlin is such a sensitive issue that the Presi-
dent will probably return to the United States in an atmos-
phere of heightened tension over the city.
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
VIETNAM
There are continued signs in interrogations,
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and intercepts of an enemy intent to launch wide- 50X1
spread offensive action shortly. The ? most probable tim-
ing appears to be this weekend. General Abrams notes that
while 22 or 23 February seem the most likely dates for
the start of an enemy offensive allied operations could,
as on previous occasions, force ardelay.
II, OTHER IMPORTANT DEVELOPMENTS
PAKISTAN
President Ayub, faced with a virtually unmanage-
able situation, has bowed to the opposition in deciding
not to run for re-election next year. With this goal
accomplished, the opposition is likely to lose its tem-
porary cohesion and quickly revert to the several small
parties based on ideOlogical and personality grounds.
Nevertheless, leaders of the opposition parties may-be
willing to meet with Ayub ,to work out basic constitu-
tional changes.
Ayub apparently hopes for an orderly transition,
but he now has little power to control events. No single
opponent now has enough nationwide support to emerge as
his obvious successor; many, however, will be tempted to
show what support they have by promoting popular demon-
strations. Continued chaos would raise the possibility
of-army intervention, as the military remains One of the
few stable elements in the country.
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