THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 5 OCTOBER 1968

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1961-1969
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005976393
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: September 16, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 16, 2015
• Publication Date: October 5, 1968

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The President's Daily Brief
-"r-Op?Srvcga_ 5 October 1968
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THE PRESIDENT'S
DAILY BRIEF .
5 OCTOBER 1968
1. Czechoslovakia -
Soviet Union
2. Soviet Union
3. Soviet Union
The Soviets have considerably
tightened the reins on Czechoslovakia
as a result of the summit talks con-
cluded yesterday. They now seem de-
termined to insist on Czechoslovak com-
pliance with the Moscow agreement of
August. Conservative, pro-Soviet per-
sonalities appear certain to enter the
Prague government, Dubcek's days as
party chief are numbered, and a Soviet
garrison will remain in Czechoslovakia
for the indefinite future.
.The communiqu?tates that Prague
"will reinforce the party and state
organs with men firmly adhering to po
sitions of Marxism-Leninism and prole-
tarian internationalism." The two
sides will consider and sign .a treaty
on the "temporary" stationing of So-
viet troops, probably 100,000 strong.
The concessions made to Moscow are
bound .to alienate President Svoboda,
thus destroying the unified Prague
leadership. They also will erode Dub-
cek's domestic support, probably greas-
ing the way for his replacement by
Slovak party secretary Husak.
The major conclusions of NIE 11-8-
68, Soviet Strategic Attack Forces, are
given at Annex.
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4. European Community - Members of the European Community
United Kingdom are showing a new willingness to move
ahead on cooperation with Britain even
without France. Belgian Foreign Minis-
ter Harmel has announced a Benelux plan
for using the framework of the Western
European Union for cooperation in areas
not covered by the Community treaties
5. Nigeria?
6. Chile
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The French-facilitated airlift of
weapons to Biafra continues to grow. A
ten-plane shuttle under French super-
vision is making seven or eight flights
a night into Biafra from Gabon carrying
relief supplies and French-made arms.
Our defense attach?n the Ivory Coast
has seen French Air Force transports
and other French planes with military
cargoes which appear to be destined for
the Biafrans. This is probably why the
Biafrans are still in the fight.
High school students made a rock-
throwing attack on the US consulate in
Santiago yesterday and were joined by
some well-known Communist adults. The
demonstration arose out of mixed motives--
to protest alleged US involvement in the
Peruvian coup and to express sympathy
with student demonstrations in Mexico
and Uruguay.
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7. United Kingdom -
Rhodesia
8. Israel
9. Mexico
At British initiative, there will
be another meeting between Wilson and
Ian Smith aboard a British naval ves-
sel, beginning about 9 October. No
preliminary progress has been made on
the main points at issue on the Rhode-
sian question. Wilson no doubt calcu-
lates that if the talks get nowhere,
he can make sure that they break down
on grounds politically favorable to
London.
The Jerusalem Post says that Prime
Minister Eshkol made a speech yester-
day in which he declared that Israel
had the know-how to make atom bombs.
He said, according to the paper, that
it was a long way from this to produc-
ing nuclear weapons. The Post, which
often reflects government thinking,
commented on this statement by saying
that the fate of Czechoslovakia and
Biafra strengthened Israeli resolve
to have a nuclear deterrent of its own.
Such frankness is unprecedented in the
Israeli press.
There is a general feeling of in-
security in Mexico City following the
extreme violence of 2 October. The
capital is rife with rumors of revolu-
tion and military takeover, and the gov-
ernment expects a major act of sabotage
before the opening of the Olympics on
12 October. The lack of confidence is
reflected in substantial losses in the
Bank of Mexico's net reserve position.
Hospital interns have begun a work stop-
page in support of the student strike,
and members of the social security
agency are planning to demonstrate
their sympathy with the students.
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ANNEX
Soviet Strategic Attack Forces
NIE 11-8-68 was approved by USIB on 3 October.
It estimates the strength and capabilities of Soviet
strategic attack forces through mid-1970 and the gen-
eral trends in those forces over the next ten years.
Some of its major conclusions are:
--Current programs will bring further improve-
ments in strategic position, already the
.most favOrable of the postwar period, but the'Soviets
face the complication of projected improvements in US
forces.
--In planning their future strategic forces, the
Soviets are almost certainly exploring a number of al-
ternatives, including a strategic arms control agree-
ment. If they do not get one, they will try to main-
tain and if possible improve their relative strategic
position.
--The great improvement in the Soviet strategic
position results primarily from the rapid and exten-
sive ICBM deployment of the past few years. The So-
viet ICBM fdrce now has about 900 operational launch-
ers, with the prospect that it will surpass the US
force in numbers by 1970.
--We believe the Soviet ICBM force goal over
the next decade will be somewhere between 1,100 and
1,500 ICBM launchers (Air Force and Army estimate
between 1,200 and 1,800). Such a force would prob-
ably embody, significant qualitative improvements,
including sophisticated re-entry systems, such as
multiple re-entry vehicles, multiple independently
targeted re-entry vehicles, and probably mobile sys-
tems.
--There has been little change in the size of
the MRBM/IRBM force, which still stands at about 700
launchers. New MRBMs and IRBMs will probably super-
sede present systems within ten years.
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--We believe the Soviets are building toward a
ballistic missile submarine force that will confront
the US with a threat roughly comparable to that
which the Polaris force presents the Soviet Union.
The Soviets could reach that position by the mid-
nineteen seventies.
--Attrition and retirement will gradully reduce
the Soviet heavy bomber force.- The medium bomber
force will probably also decline, but more gradually,
and a follow-on medium bomber may be introduced. (Air
Force believes this underestimates the role of stra-
tegic bombers.)
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Top Secret
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Top Secret
FOR THE PRESIDENT'S EYES ONLY
1.) Special Daily Report on North Vietnam
2.) North Vietnamese Reflections of U S
Political Attitudes
Top Secret
16
5 October 1968
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Special Daily Report on North Vietnam
for the President's Eyes Only
5 October 1968
I. NOTES ON THE SITUATION
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Lebanon Tries to Curb Shipping to North Vietnam:
The Lebanese Government has told the US Embassy that
it has imposed fines totaling over $12,000 on a Leba-
nese-flag ship which twice this year violated Beirut'
ban on voyages to North Vietnam.
II. NORTH VIETNAMESE REFLECTIONS OF US POLITICAL
ATTITUDES ON THE WAR
There is nothing of significance to report today.
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Top Secret
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