THE PRESIDENT'S INTELLIGENCE REVIEW 28-30 OCTOBER 1964

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1961-1969
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005959516
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: September 16, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 16, 2015
• Publication Date: October 30, 1964

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THE PRESIDENT'S
INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
28 - 30 OCTOBER 1964
TOP-SteRE-T-
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30 October 1964
1. South Vietnam: Huong has been designated
premier. Vien is to be his deputy.
Negotiations on the cabinet are apparently
still in progress. Khanh will be armed forces
commander in chief.
Ambassador Taylor believes this team is
about the best we could have expected to ob-
tain and should be able to work with the mili-
tary.
General Minh seems slated for a sinecure,
possibly as "supreme counsellor" to Suu.
2. Congo: The danger besetting the Ameri-
cans and Belgians held hostage by the rebels
in Stanleyville has increased.
/the rebels can no longer guar-
antee the safety of citizens of all countries
that are aiding Tshombe.
This suggests that whatever restraining
influehoe Gbenye has been wielding over "gen-
eral" Olenga *and other rebel cutthroats is at
an end. There has all along been serious
doubt that the rebel leaders could restrain
their followers.
(Cont 'd)
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In retaliation for an air strike at Boende,
which has recently been retaken by the govern-
ment, three European hostages were murdered
before government ground forces could reach the
scene.
3 Sudan: The new cabinet includes several
Communists, one of whom is a central committee
member. It is not yet definite which ministries
they will control.
These people have prevailed over what
seems to have been strenuous opposition from
more moderate groups. The dominant role they
have carved out for themselves will not go
down well with some of the military, who prob-
ably are already studying what counteraction
to take.
About the only concession made to the
military in the new set up is the retention of
General Abboud as titular head of state and
director of military affairs.
Although the civilians have temporarily
won out, it should be recalled that they are
deeply and bitterly divided on all points ex-
cept opposition to the military.
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4 France-UN;/
5. West Germany - Israel: The West Germans
have now publicly confirmed that they have a
military aid agreement with Israel and have
been helping the Israelis in the atomic energy
field.
Both programs are of several years'
standing and have been surfaced now in an
effort to counteract Israel's campaign
against German scientists serving the UAR.
6. France-MLF: Ambassador Bohlen believes
all indications point to a French program of
vigorous opposition to the conclusion of any
MLF agreement. Paris is already trying to dis-
suade the West Germans from joining.
/the MLF
would tend to limit cooperation under the
French-German treaty and isolate Germany from
other European countries as well as France if
it began as a bilateral US-German venture.
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7. Cambodia: Sihanouk remains in a state
of mind so belligerent as to seem theatrical.
He has been saying he no longer cares whether
there are violent demonstrations against the
US Embassy, and will not try to restrain his
angry public.
8. Laos: The military situation is generally
quiet.
The spurt in Communist truck convoy activ-
ity, which began in September, continues. Over
200 trucks were observed moving west along
Route 7 toward the Plaine des Jarres during the
past week. There was one convoy of 90 trucks.
So far, we see no firm indications of
an imminent enemy attack.
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9. Communist China:
1 anotner nuclear test, mucn larger"
than the first one, is scheduled for next March.
If the Chinese do indeed have a second
test in the works
They may
also want to lessen the damage it might do
to them at the second "Bandung" conference
scheduled for Algiers next spring.
The prediction that the next shot will be
larger suggests Chinese confidence in improv-
ing their next device,possibly by using both
plutonium and U-235. By next March, both
materials could ?be available in sufficient
quantity.
10. USSR: It is beginning to look as if the
new 1.&a-Te-rs in Moscow will persist with the
meeting of Communist parties scheduled for
15 December.
(Cont 'd)
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11.
Moscow can
hardly find appetizing the prospect of cancel-
ling or even postponing the meeting,which Khru-
shchev laid on with so much fanfare. The
Chinese would surely play such action as a
major Soviet defeat.
East Germany: Ulbricht's party is appar-
ently having trouble adjusting to the recent
changes in Moscow.
Although the politburo issued a quali-
fied endorsement of the Moscow shift on 17
October and was to meet again on 26 October,
no public announcement has resulted. A cen-
tral committee meeting may have taken place
on Thursday.
12 Cuba: The shift from island-wide SAM
coverage to point coverage is nearing com-
pletion. We expect the last sites to be re-
located, those in the eastern part of the
island, will be moved
The advantage of the new set-up is that
it will improve the Cubans' ability to handle
multiple targets over the main military and
urban centers.
FeNr The. Pr.e.c es...1. ("1 i?ff
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13. UN Arrearagesl There is an increasing
disposition to put this problem on ice. One
of the Soviets attached to the UN Secretariat,
for example, has suggested private US-USSR
talks on the matter over several months.
Several of the nonaligned governments
are planning to move for adjournment of the
assembly session if the arrears problem has
not been settled by opening day.
14. Bolivia: The police and militia have
put down the student rioters in La Paz, at
least for the moment. Serious unrest, never-
theless, persists there and elsewhere. How
much is hard to say.
The tin miners apparently are sticking
to their strike threat, although there is no
late word on the situation in the interior.
In a broadcast early this morning, Paz
said he will not resign.
/We still believe Paz will weather
this storm, provided the military stay with him.
C-... TL-.
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TOP SECRET
Communist China: 3 Mission
showed a 70-foot missile erected at one of the
pads at the Shuangchengtzu missile test center
Mission 2 showed that it had either
been fired or removed . The mis-
sile was missing, but propellant vehicles and
an erector were grouped on the pad in a manner
similar to that which we have noted at Kapustin
Yar during Soviet MRBM exercises.
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1.
5 e..)t. W ktc-ke
frAvt-a-e-
South Vietnam: Huong, Prefect of Saigon
and a businessman, has been designated premier.
Vien, a political leader and physician, is to
be his deputy.
Negotiations on the cabinet are apparently
still in progress. Khanh will be armed forces
commander in chief.
Ambassador Taylor believes this team is
about the best we could have expected to ob-
tain and should be able to work with the mili-
tary.
General Minh seems slated for a sinecure,
possibly as "supreme counsellor" to Suu.
2. Congo: The danger besetting the Ameri-
cans and Belgians held hostage by the rebels
in Stanleyville has increased.
/the rebels can no longer guar-
antee the safety of citizens of all countries
that are aiding Tshombe.
In retaliation for an air strike at Boende,
which has recently been retaken by the govern-
ment, three European hostages were murdered
before government ground forces could reach
the scene.
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3. France-MLF: Ambassador Bohlen believes
all indications point to a French program of
vigorous opposition to the conclusion of any
MLF agreement. Paris is already trying to
dissuade the West Germans from joining.
4. Laos: The military situation is generally
quiet.
. .? -
The spurt in Communist truck convoy activ-
ity, which began in September, continues. Over
200 trucks were observed moving west along
Route 7 toward the Plaine des Jarres during the
past week. There was one convoy of 90 trucks.
So far, we see no firm indications of an
imminent enemy attack.
5. Communist China:
another nuclear test, "much larger"
than the first one, is scheduled for next March."
The prediction that the next shot will be
larger suggests Chinese confidence in improving
their next device, possibly by using both
plutonium and U-235. By next March, both
? materials could be available in sufficient
quantity.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2015/07/23 : CIA-RDP79T00936A003200240001-5
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6 Bolivia: The police and militia have
put down the student rioters in La Paz, at
least for the moment. Serious unrest, never-
theless, persists there and elsewhere. How
much is hard to say.
The tin miners apparently are sticking
to their strike threat, although there is no
late word on the situation in the interior.
In a broadcast early this morning, Paz
said he will not resign.
We still believe Paz will
weather this storm, provided the military
stay with him.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2015/07/23 : CIA-RDP79T00936A003200240001-5
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