THE PRESIDENT'S INTELLIGENCE REVIEW 24-27 OCTOBER 1964

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1961-1969
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005959509
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: September 16, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 16, 2015
• Publication Date: October 27, 1964

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THE PRESIDENT'S
INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
24 - 27 OCTOBER 1964
1OP-5E-CAEL____
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1.
27 October 1964
USSR: The new leadership appears intent
on reassuring everyone that nothing has really
changed.
Delegations have been sent to Bulgaria
and Yugoslavia. Brezhnev and Kosygin have
met with Gomulka. Several western Communist
party delegations have gone or are going to
Moscow. Soviet diplomats around the world con-
tinue to spread the word that no major policy
changes, particularly with regard to Peiping,
are in store.
Last Friday, Premier Kosygin, in the
only interview so far granted Ambassador
Kohler, echoed the public statements on the
continuity of Soviet policy. He was particu-
larly adamant on Moscow's refusal to meet its
UN arrearages, Kohler reports that Kosygin's
careful hewing to the public line suggests the
new leaders will indeed stick to the "collec-
tive" approach, at least for the present.
On the domestic front, the Soviet press
appears to be trying to assure the Soviet peo-
ple that economic goals, especially a higher
standard of living, remain unchanged.
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2. South Vietnam: To no one's surprise, the
new government's formation is taking longer
than scheduled.
We did get a new Chief of State, Phan Khac
Suu, a man acceptable to most Vietnamese fac-
tions, but whose health is bad and whose com-
mand of the situation is uncertain. His most
important decision, the choice of a prime min-
ister, is still being delayed.
Suu is now negotiating with Buddhist and
Catholic leaders and with Generals Khanh and
Minh. This may take another week.
The Khanh government continues to act as
a caretaker. Khanh and his supporters also -
will probably carry a lot of weight in the new
government, judging from the quality of Suu's
reported top candidates for prime minister.
Huong, the mayor of Saigon, is in poor health
like Suu; Interior Minister Vien is Khanh's
uncle; and the third prospect, Ho Van Nhut,
is a man of little experience.
? General Minh, nearly everyone's early bet
for Chief of StaiLe? now seems destined for rela-
tive obscurity.
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3. Cambodia - South Vietnam: There have
been four serious border incidents during the
past week, and more may be in store.
Two of the incidents involved Vietnamese
planes in over-the-border air strikes against
Cambodian villages. The Cambodians were also
mixed up in an exchange between the Vietnamese
and the Viet Cong, in which US Army Captain
Towery was killed.
Last, the Cambodians shot down a C-123
which had wandered over the border in error.
The plane crashed in South Vietnam, killing
eight Americans.
Sihanouk has warned--not for the first
time--that the next "aggressive act" against
his country will mean a diplomatic break with
the US and Cambodian recognition of Hanoi and
the South Vietnamese rebels. He has also
threatened "reprisals." The Cambodian armed
forces are on increased alert, and more troops
and artillery have been sent to the border
area.
4. Communist China
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5. Taiwan - Communist China: Peiping's nu-
clear success has sparked new Nationalist
demands for US help against the Communist
regime
The Nationalists are saying
the Communists must be
crushed before they achieve a nuclear weap-
ons capability.
Our embassy has noted signs of a feeling
among the Nationalist military that a "do or
die" effort should be made against the main-
land, even without US help. To bolster morale,
the government may step up its commando raids
on the mainland coast.
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6.
USSR:(
7. Bolivia: Serious riots occurred in at
least three Bolivian cities on Monday,and the
demonstrators were reported out in strength
in La Paz again on Tuesday morning. We have
a late report that student rioters have sacked
and burned the USIS center in Santa Cruz.
The students, who usually start such
affairs, have been joined by tin miners, fac-
tory workers, and various leftist elements. The
government has called on the militia to support
local security forces. So far the demonstrations
have been fairly well contained, but this may
not hold.
(Cont'd)
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the dis-
turbances have been encouraged by Bolivia's
army chief, General Ovando, who hopes to fol-
low them up with a military coup against Presi-
dent Paz. The attitude of Vice President Bar-
rientos, who has support in the military, is
not clear, he might
use this support to settle his feud with Paz.
8. Congo: The government is still holding
the military initiative.
A rebel threat may be shaping up north
of Bukavu. The Congo Army garrison at Beni,
about 200 miles above Bukavu, has pulled out
and is retreating south. Government rein-
forcements are being sent,and air strikes
against the. advancing rebels were carried out
on Sunday.
Below Bukavu, Congo Army troops and merce-
naries have met unexpectedly well-organized re-
sistance from the rebels.)
(Cont 'd)
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?
Elsewhere the rebel position continues to
deteriorate. Food and other supplies are short,
and in some areas the local population appears
restive.
Stanleyville may be a different story.
Recent reports indicate that the rebels have
restored some measure of stability after more
than a month of near chaos. Apparently "Presi-
dent" Gbenye, "Foreign Minister" Kanza, and
"General" Olenga are now together in the
capital for the first time. We suspect that
their gathering may have some connection with
the OAU's special commission on the Congo.
9. Cyprus: On Monday the Kyrenia road was
opened and the rotation of Turkish troops was
begun, thus removing two immediate threats to
continued quiet on the island.
Progress toward a lasting solution, how-
ever, is still stymied. Greek and UN officials
now appear to agree that,without an early decla-
ration of enosis, Makarios will win out as the
head of an independent, demilitarized, neutral
Cyprus.
The ability of Athens and General Grivas
to influence events on the island continues to
decline. If quiet continues, the need. for
Greek troops will diminish. If they are with-
drawn, pro-enosis elements will have no force
to back them up against the Communists and
others favoring complete independence.
(Cont'd)
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Gab-Plaza is expected to make his report
to U Thant sometime in December. He favors
enosis, but cannot recommend the dissolution
of a UN member. Therefore, his recommendations
will have to be made within the context of in-
dependence. He still believes, however, that
Makarios would support enosis if he could ap-
pear as its sponsor.
This would still leave the Turks to mol-,
lify,which would take larger concessions than
Greece has yet offered.
10. Sudan: President Abboud and his military
regime have bent a little in the wake of several
days of violent public demonstrations. At this
stage, however, it is doubtful that they in-
tend to let any real power slip out of their
hands.
To appease public demands for a return
to civilian government, the old,mixed mili-
tarv-civilian cabinet has been fired.
it is unlikely that
Abboud is ready yet to give civilians any
cabinet posts of major importance. He will
probably continue to rely on support from the
armed forces, which still appear solidly be-
hind his regime.
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11.
Panama: Robles is running into stiff
opposition to his badly needed economic re-
form program.
Various entrenched interests are being
joined by the followers of Robles' defeated
opponent, Arnulfo Arias,who hope to discredit
the new President.
12. Japan
The two leading candidates, Olympics Min-
ister Ichiro Kono and party stalwart Eisaku
Sato, are bitter, longtime enemies. Ikeda,
who still controls one of the party's major
cliques, at one time leaned toward Kono. Kono
served as deputy premier during Ikeda's trip
abroad last year.
The fact that during his long illness Ikeda
did not appoint Kono again suggests that the
former prime minister may now prefer Sato.
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13. Cuba - Latin America:
14.
Havana is working
on holding a conference of Latin American Com-
munist parties in Cuba next month. The business
of the meeting is to be the formulation of
a common policy on the Sino-Soviet rift.
UK-Rhodesia(
London's ultimatum, delivered on Sunday,
warned Smith that,if he does not call a halt,
there will be economic sanctions imnosed
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15. Gabon: President Mba's brutal excesses
apparently have proved to be more than his
French masters can take. The French have
been almost his sole support since the abor-
tive coup attempt last February, but late
last week they hustled him onto a plane for
Paris. He may have no return ticket.
The French were apparently able to stomach
beatings and public humiliation of Mba's po-
litical opponents; but when his goons began
attacking French citizens as well as other Euro-
peans, the French pounced on him.
? What the next step will be is unclear.
The French have vital economic interests in
Gabon and will fight hard to keep the upper
hand in any new political arrangement. Their
extended forbearance with Mba, however, has
used up a good deal of their political credit
in the country.
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TOP SECRET
Soviet Missiles:[
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Communist China: The Chinese Communists
test
a surface-to-surface missile.
mission disclosed a 70-
foot missile erected at one of the pads at the
Shuangchengtzu missile test center on 18
October.
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The size suggests a missile on the order
of the Soviet SS-3 or SS-4. We cannot be sure
whether the missile is one provided by the
USSR before 1960 or a missile fabricated at
least in part by the Chinese.
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