THE PRESIDENT'S INTELLIGENCE REVIEW 7-9 OCTOBER 1964

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1961-1969
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005959475
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: September 16, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 16, 2015
• Publication Date: October 9, 1964

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THE PRESIDENT'S
INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
7 ? 9 OCTOBER 1964
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1.
Congo: The farcical episode in Cairo
this week has ended. Tshombe has gone to Paris
for a few days before returning to the Congo,
and the Egyptian and Algerian diplomats in
Leopoldville have crossed over to Brazzaville.
All parties say, however, that diplomatic
relations will not be broken. Apart from
making the nonaligned conferees appear ridic-
ulous, the main result of Tshombe's astonish-
ing behavior apparently has been to alienate
even the leaders who were disposed to give him
the benefit of the doubt.
In the Congo, government forces on Wednes-
day recaptured Uvira from rebels led by "General"
Olenga. Some 30 European hostages were rescued.
We have no further word about the Americans in
Stanleyville.
The Belgian Government is considering a
plan for providing Belgian advisers in foreign,
financial, and interior affairs who would func-
tion as a "Council of Administrative Reconstruc-
tion" directly responsive to Tshombe. Although
Tshombe apparently has said he likes the idea,
he may not in the end be willing to commit him-
self.
There is also much reluctance in Brussels
to put Belgians back in responsible positions
in the Congo, largely because of the world-wide
criticism Belgium endured in 1960 for its
failures in the Congo.
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2. South Vietnam: The High National Council
is said to have agreed that General Minh should
stay on as chief of state in the new civilian
government to be installed next month. The
council members as yet have no choice for pre-
mier, but they are agreed that General Khanh
must go.
The council apparently has not determined
what to do if Khanh refuses to step down, and
members have expressed concern that the US may
continue to support him.
The Viet Cong may be
attack in some force on a
near the Cambodian border.
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provincial capital
The Viet Cong have not attacked .a provin-
cial capital in nearly three years. Such an
attack now would have considerable psychologi-
cal impact.
3. Cyprus: UN mediator Gab-Plaza, who has
hitherto striven to look on the bright side,
apparently has now all but lost hope.
(Cont'd)
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He has told Ambassador Belcher that he
thinks Soviet support has increased the obsti-
nacy of the Greek Cypriots. He also considers
it likely that Makarios will return from Cairo.
with a strengthened hand.
The Turks, he believes, are losing ground
and must be induced to compromise. He wants
US help in convincing Ankara that a solution
pivoted on a NATO base area is still attain-
able and desirable.
Like the British High Commissioner, Gab-
Plaza has come to believe that enosis would
be the best solution. He cannot see, however,
how the General Assembly could recommend dis-
solution of a member state, and expects it will
recommend self-government and majority rule.
On the question of Soviet aid, we still
think that the Greek Cypriots have received
only a promise of some aging "defensive" weap-
ons to be sent along later on.
Makarios' supporters, however, are evi-
dently trying to make it appear that much more
is involved, partly in order to attract support
from Grivas.
4. Cuba-US:
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5. USSR
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6. Communist Agriculture: The Soviet harvest
is nearly in, and our studies show that this
year's grain crop is about 120-125 million tons.
Last year's was about 95 million.
This will make large-scale imports unneces-
sary, and will permit a start to be made on
rebuilding state grain reserves, badly depleted
after last year's poor crop.
Eastern Europe, with another mediocre crop
this year,has already contracted to import 3.8
million tons of grain from the West to tide it
over until the next harvests. Poland may be
in the market for another million. tons from
the US.
Growing conditions for the important late
rice crop in Communist China, now being har-
vested, have been fair to good. The outlook
is for an over-all grain and tuber take slightly
up from last year, but China is still importing
more than ever before.
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7. UN Arrearages: The prospects are getting
dimmer for favorable action by the General
Assembly this year on the question of Soviet
and French refusal to pay peacekeeping assess-
ments.
The latest blow has been India's statement
this week in support of the Soviet position.
The Soviets seem quite confident that a
motion to deprive them of their voting rights
would be defeated if it should come to a vote.
The feeling is growing among the less-developed
nations that the matter would best be left to
a later session of the assembly.
There is even talk of postponing the open-
ing of the assembly, now set for 10 November,
in order to sidestep the issue.
8. West Germany - EEC: A year-end crisis
within the Common Market over the unification
of grain prices is shaping up.
Paris wants a decision in December, but
Bonn is procrastinating.
The German Christian Democrats fear they
will lose farm votes to the Socialists and
the Free Democrats in the 1965 elections. Al-
ready there are charges that the German farmer
is to be sold "down the river."
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9. Indonesia-Malaysia:-
10. USSR-Somalia: The first Somali military
trainees returned from the USSR in mid-August,
and Somali forces would now appear to be ready
for the first big gulp of Soviet arms due
under the year-old $35 million agreement.
11. Iraq-Syria
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12. Communist China
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14. Venezuela: Yesterday's kidnapping of a
US military officer marks the beginning of
another offensive by Communist terrorists.
15. Bolivia: Vice President Barrientos appears
to be calling for a showdown with President Paz
on a clarification of the vice presidential role.
(Cont'd)
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Bitter public exchanges are being made,
with Barrientos implying he may use military
support against Paz.
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