THE PRESIDENT'S INTELLIGENCE REVIEW 8-11 AUGUST 1964

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1961-1969
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005959354
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: September 16, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 16, 2015
• Publication Date: August 11, 1964

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THE PRESIDENT'S
INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
8? 11 AUGUST 1964
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Cyprus: (as of 1430 EDT, 11 August) The
island is generally quiet, but the truce re-
mains fragile.
Greek Cypriots, however, refuse to with-
draw from positions seized around Kokkina. Un-
less UN forces succeed in getting the Greek
Cypriots to pull back, the Turks might decide
to resume their air raids. At present, how-
ever, Ankara says it will not resume these un-
less the Greek Cypriots launch new attacks.
Turkish reconnaissance flights over Kokkina
have been discontinued.
Ankara has warned Athens that any Greek
air attack on Kokkina will be considered an
attack against Turkey.
Greek Cypriot leaders are sharply divided
over Makarios' plea for Soviet intervention.
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A request for Soviet armed forces to be sta-
tioned in Cyprus may be under debate in
Nicosia, but is viewed by some Greek Cypriot
leaders as a "desperate expedient."
There seems little likelihood that Mos-
cow would honor such a request now. Moscow's
response to Makarios' first request was
limited to an expression of "sympathy" by
Khrushchev.
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2. China - North Vietnam: Further study
of photography now estab-
lishes that 36 MIG 15/17 jet fighters--a full
regiment--are at Phuc Yen airfield near Hanoi
Many are camouflaged. They are protected by
some 75 light and medium AA guns. COMINT in-
dicates that these planes came from China's
Mengtzu airfield near the Vietnamese border.
Air transport flights between Mengtzu and
Hanoi are continuing.
There are signs that fighters may be
moved from East China into Nanning. If so,
it will be the first air augmentation in
South China from outside the area since the
start of the crisis.
(Cont'd)
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We have seen no major ground force re-
deployment in China,
Hanoi's propaganda is making a great ef-
fort to play up last week's incidents as great
victories and has not mentioned North Vietnam-
ese losses. The regime must be anxious to
cover up its failures to avoid undercutting
popular morale and that of the Viet Cong.
Hanoi has not specifically rejected the
UN invitation to appear, but has denied the
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Security Council's competence to discuss the
situation. Both Peiping and Hanoi have indi-
cated a clear preference for the Geneva peace-
keeping machinery.
The Chinese, to keep attention focused
on the crisis, are stage-managing popular dem-
onstratiens in all major cities. The 17 mil-
lion thus far claimed in attendance fall far
short, however, of the 300 million claimed
for the Taiwan Straits crisis of 1958.
Several Chinese public statements, in-
sisting on China's "right" and "determination"
to aid North Vietnam, could be a buildup to
public acknowledgement of what has already
been sent--and might mean more is coming.
Both Hanoi and Peiping have indicated
their feeling that Soviet backing has been
less than adequate.
Soviet propaganda on the Tonkin Gulf
crisis is relatively restrained.
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3. Congo: The military situation in the
eastern Congo continues to deteriorate.
Rebels in trucks and "marching in forma-
tion" were reported on 10 August to be 50
miles west of Bukavu. Congo Army forces, as
well as two T-28 aircraft, have been sent to
meet them.
In Stanleyville, US consular officials
have reportedly obtained rebel permission to
evacuate.
Panic is developing in the towns west of
of Stanleyville along the Congo River, and the
local populations are reported ready to wel-
come the rebels. Europeans are evacuating
and government troops fleeing down river from
Stanleyville are reported to be in a rebellious
mood.
Defeatism is spreading in Leopoldville
itself and is affecting Congolese leaders.
Several, including General Mobutu, are
said to be convinced that they have no more
than two weeks to stem the rebel tide.
the infiltration of rebel
agitators into Leopoldville to spark disturb-
ances and they fear the city may fall from
within.
The picture is not all bad, however.
(Cont'd)
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In Katanga, mixed groups of army, Katanga
gendarmes, and police have been making advances.
The force which recently took Baudouinville is
pushing north and another plans to move on
from Kabongo (northeast of Kamina).
As many as six companies of Tshombe's
gendarmes may now have been formed in Katanga
to move to several strategic loca-
tions including Leopoldville itself. Some
3,000 gendarmes camped in Angola are being
readied, but none have appeared in:the Congo.
Tshombe is reported to have definitely
decided to use mercenaries, but we have no word
that more than a handful have arrived. Despite
his public statements that he would not seek
military help from other African states, he
has asked for two Nigerian battalions. The
Nigerians are likely to help, but not on this
scale. They are wary of being identified with
Tshombe and may insist that other Africans
join in.
None of the additional Belgian assistance
has arrived as yeti
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4. Indonesia-Malaysia(
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5, Laos: The three factions have agreed to
talk among themselves in Paris, possibly begin-
ning 24 August, preparatory to a Geneva con-
ference.
(Cont' d)
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Observers in Vientiane see signs that
Souvanna will give way on his demand for with-
drawal of the Pathet Lao from the Plaine des
Jarres as a precondition for an international
conference.
6. South Vietnam: There are some signs that
public exuberance over the US air strike may
evaporate and manifestations of dissatisfaction
with the Khanh regime resume.
The US action prompted many Vietnamese
to think that the war burden was removed from
their shoulders. Khanh's "state of emergency"
decrees, if continued, will soon disillusion
these people.
(Cont 'd)
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Other Vietnamese are already becoming
fearful of harsh retaliation by the Communists.
SOme highly placed people fear that, if
the campaign against the Viet Cong is not
pushed effectively, Khanh may feel compelled
to resort to distractions--for example, some
action against Cambodia.
7. Haiti: President Duvalier
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bUAl
may now have a new threat to face. 50X1
Haitian rebels interned in the Dominican 50X1
epublic since July may have been released
across the border into Haiti where they hoped
to pick up cached arms.
Further rebel incursions are
the off in.
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8. Egypt - Yemen - Saudi Arabia7
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9. Israel-Syria: Border shooting incidents
are again heightening tensions.
The Israelis are concerned about control
of the border area now that their pumping sta-
tion for diverting Jordan water is operating.
They are patrolling into the DMZ. Syrian troops
are responding vigorously, most recently on
6 August, and on 10 August fired on an Israeli
tractor in the DMZ.
10. USSR - Communist China: The Soviets are
moving toward convening a world Communist con-
ference to discuss differences.
Moscow has asked the 25 parties which
helped it prepare the conference of 1960 to
get together in December to arrange another for
mid-1965. The Chinese, one of the invitees,
recently said they would not participate in
any preparatory meeting set up by Moscow this
year.
(Cont' d)
TL- "-L.
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The Russians have indicated that the refus-
al of any party to participate in the December
preparatory session should not prevent the
1965 meeting. Other parties invited may refuse,
but we are certain Moscow can muster a substan-
tial majority.
We now look for stepped up Chinese efforts
to persuade undecided parties that a meeting
in December will only worsen matters.
In a new twist, Peiping is putting on sale
a collection of past statements by Khrushchev
which prove he is a "revisionist."
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Fnr Tkes Procirlant (Ink - Tnn SprrAt
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12.
Cuba:
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We think
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recruit training in Cuba may have lagged
and
that veterans are being held in service
pend-
ing the return of trained personnel from
the
USSR
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