THE PRESIDENT'S INTELLIGENCE REVIEW 18-21 APRIL 1964

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1961-1969
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005959127
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: September 16, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 16, 2015
• Publication Date: April 21, 1964

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THE PRESIDENT'S
INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
18 - 21 APRIL 1964
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1. Laos: The crisis precipitated by Sunday's right-
wing Tot-113 is far from over.
The coup was engineered largely by General Siho,
who was jumping the gun on rightist contingency plans
to step in should Souvanna withdraw as he had often
threatened in the past. Souvanna was again doing so
after the failure of the Plaine des Jarres talks.
General Phoumi, who ostensibly controls the coup
generals, did not take a direct part and has indeed
been unable to re-establish full control.
These generals, once the coup was accomplished,
seemed to have had little idea of what to do.next.
Their troops are apparently keeping Souvanna
and perhaps Phoumi under some restraint./
/General Siho and
Colonel Thonglith are violently anti
neutralist and anti-Communist officers with little
appreciation of the international issues involved
in their actions.
As we go to press, Souvanna and his cabinet have
gone to Luang Prabang to hand their resignations to
the King, opening the way for a new government.
How this will? all turn out is lost in a thicker
than usual Laotian fog. One possibility is that
Souvanna will be named to form a new government in
which the Pathet Lao will not participate. We doubt
that Souvanna, in so far as he is a free agent, will
go along with this.
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If it should fall out this way, the 1962
Geneva accords will be brought in serious question.
Already Sihanouk has called for a new Geneva
conference on Laos.
Kong Le, who at first adopted a hands off policy,
is now, strongly opposing the coup. There are no
reports as yet of significant moves by the Pathet
Lao. They are probably tempted, but wary of driving
the rightists and neutralists closer together.
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2. Cuba: Castro's speech on Sunday's anniversary
of the Bayof Pigs contained his first strong attack
on the Johnson administration, a marked departure
from the careful, almost conciliatory line he has
followed since the first of the year.
It may have been the starting gun for a new
Cuban diplomatic and propaganda offensive against
the US, but how Castro's threats will be translated
into Cuban actions is conjectural.
Castro said he intended to deliver another note
to the UN denouncing US "provocations and violations"
of Cuba. He cited alleged provocations by US per-
sonnel at Guantanamo and made passing reference to
violations of Cuban airspace..
The next day President Dorticos was somewhat
more pointed on the last matter. Responding to a US
warning against any interference, he said that Cuba is
determined to defend itself with "appropriate action."
He also said that the Guantanamo base issue would be
taken before an ?appropriate body in the "more or less
near future."
3. Brazil: Ambassador Gordon has been struck by the
contrast between his first talk with President Castello
Branco and his latest audiences with Goulart. He
finds Branco "alert, attentive, intelligent and re-
sponsive" and settling into his new responsibilities
in in "auspicious" way.
(Cont'd)
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His administration has all but decided on a
break with Cuba. The only matters still to be fixed
are the timing and pretext.
The Brazilians are, however, concerned about
the refusal of some Latin American nations, notably
Mexico, Venezuela and Uruguay, to extend full recog-
nition.
They realize that Uruguay is a special case since
Goulart is still there. ?They would like to encourage
Montevideo to get Goulart to move on.
4. South Korea: Korea's volatile students were in
the streets the past two days despite a blunt warning
from the Pak government on Monday that the time had
come for the students to get back to their books.
The numbers of students involved have not been
as large as in last month's outbursts, but the govern-
ment, which wants to get on with its negotiations
with Japan, is clearly nettled.
The police have been getting tougher and Pak has
been thinking of imposing martial law if the students
remain obstreperous.
What makes the situation ticklish is the fact
that the students are being egged on by opposition
elements who want to bring down the government and
by those whose main aim in life is to get rid of Kim
Chong-pil. In short, all the ingredients are present
for a nasty turn of events.
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:South Vietnam: .Recent orders from the Viet Cong
authorities to operatives in the field make it quite
clear that the Communists wish to strike the Khanh
regime hard before it gets its feet fully on the ground.
The orders call for an all-out effort in the
countryside to hamper large-scale government operations,
to harass government hamlets and set up Viet Cong
"combat hamlets," and to build up Communist administra-
tion at the village level.
The effort in the cities is to be directed to
promoting neutralization, and offering help to coup
plotters.
Viet Cong military action has indeed been stepped
up in the countryside. Last week the Communists
sustained a five-day battle with government forces,
the largest single engagement of the war so far.
Since then they have thrown good-size attacks
at government posts near the Cambodian border and in
the delta southeast of Saigon. As a result, casualties
on both sides last week were at near record levels.
6. Zanzibar: Foreign Minister Babu is in Indonesia.
Rumors are about in East Africa that he will not be
allowed to return and that his main followers ill be
sent abroad or shorn of power.
(Contld)
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Animosity between Arabs and Africans is never
far beneath the surface in Zanzibar and in fact was
one of the principal forces behind the January rev-
olution. In this situation, Babu and his henchmen
are Arabs and pro-Peiping, while Vice President Hanga,
who stands to be the chief beneficiary if Babu is
neutralized, is an African and pro-Moscow.
In a pinch President Karume would probably throw
In with fellow African Hanga. Bringing down Babu will
not, however,be easy. He is the most able of the
contending figures, and his followers are probably
the best armed and disciplined.
The 200-man Tanganyikan police contingent could
be a big factor in any showdown. It would probably
support a Hanga-Karume grouping. Babu's men may have
tried to get it off the island this weekend, but
this was forestalled after Karume, at Hanga's urging,
made a quick trip to Dar-es-Salaam.
7. Syria: The Syrian Baath is still in very deep
water:
Government security forces had more trouble than
was bargained for in dealing with last week's disturb-
ances in northern Syria. Now most of the bazaars in
Damascus and other major cities have all but closed
down to protest the government's socialization programs.
The more immediate threat comes from another
direction, however.
an Egvptian-supported coup may be attempted
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8.
USSR-Ghana:
a Soviet major general is being named military
attach?in Accra. The upgrading of this job
could mean that the two countries are moving
closer to a military aid agreement.
Adding to this possibility is the presence in
Moscow since last Friday of the Ghanaian defense
minister.
Nkrumah has long been interested in a Soviet arms
deal and the Soviets have been willing, but the
Ghanaian military have so far been dragging their feet.
9. USSR:
10. USSR Space:
This was the fifth Soviet space
attempt in the past two months. Four of them have
failed.
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11.
USSR
12. Soviet Gold Sales:
13. Reaction to the President's Speech: Soviet media
have so far played President Johnson's New York speech
factually. Editorial comment presumably will follow.
Headline emphasis was given the section dealing
with the cutback in plutonium and enriched uranium.
This portion of the speech was covered in detail and
reported as an earnest of US desires for peace. The
remainder of the speech was treated only briefly and
without comment in the Tass summary.
Initial reaction in Western Europe are about as
might be expected. The Gaullist press saw no signifi-
cance to the nuclear cutback: "Its importance could not
be underestimated."
The West Germans saw it as a step forward, but one
whose significance "should not be overestimated."
Harold Wilson calls the agreement a welcome psycho-
logical step toward peace, even if it is not a positive
-am* of disarmament.
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Reactions from Latin America, Asia and Africa are
not yet available.
Peiping has not yet commented.
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TOP SECRET
Preliminary Analysis of Khrushchev's State-
ment on a Cut in the Production of Materials
for Nuclear Weapons
The two plutonium reactors on which Khrushchev says
he is:going to halt construction are probably the ones at
Tomsk.
We had estimated that these reactors, which are dual
purpose (electric power as well as plutonium production),
would become operational in 1966 or 1967 with a capacity
of about 1,500 megawatts each.
It is not clear from Khrushchev's statement whether
?the Soviets intend to stop construction on the reactors
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