THE PRESIDENT'S INTELLIGENCE CHECKLIST 31 AUGUST 1961

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1961-1969
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005959020
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: September 16, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 16, 2015
• Publication Date: August 31, 1961

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THE PRESIDENT'S
INTELLIGENCE CHECKLIST
31 AUGUST 1961
TerP-SEGRET
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SOVIET NUCLEAR TEST ANNOUNCEMENT
The Joint Atomic Energy Intelligence Committee, at its
meeting yesterday, made the following statement:
In connection with the 30 August 1961 Soviet announcement
of their decision to resume nuclear weapon testing there has
been increasing evidence since the middle of August suggest-
ing that preparations have been under way for nuclear tests at
Novaya Zemlya (in the eastern Barents Sea). The pattern of
activity has been similar in many, but not all, respects to that
preceding earlier Soviet high yield test series in this area.
The buildup of both ship and air logistical support required for
testing
has continued and appears to be sufficient for the conduct of a
nuclear test at any time in the future. Although the delivery
aircraft of the unit previously used to drop large nuclear test
devices have not yet been identified in the area, suitable bomber-
aircraft are available there. A large number of aircraft and ships
believed to be connected with the Soviet air-to-surface missile
development and testing have been identified in the area near
Novaya Zemlya. This latter activity closely resembles the pattern
followed last year when three Cherub air-to-surface missiles were
fired in operational exercises in Novaya Zemlya area. It is
possible that the nuclear test and air-to-surface missile exercises
are independent.
The Soviet statement also mentioned "creating a series of super-
powerful nuclear bombs with yields equivalent to 20, 30, 50, and 100
million tons of TNT" and stated that they could be launched to any
point in the world with the same rockets used for the Soviet man-
in-space flights. It is estimated that by testing the Soviets
could achieve the 100 MT yield, but the warhead weight would be
considerably in excess of the intercontinental payload capacity
available to the Soviets with their.present ICBM or space boosters.
Development of weapons in all these high yield categories could be
accomplished with tests in the lower megaton range.
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These were among the early international reactions:
a) Tokyo: the press reported dismay on the part of conservatives
and leftists alike. The leftist Japan Council Against Atomic and
Hydrogen Bombs termed the step "regrettable";
b) Belgrade: Various unidentified Asians called the move
"shocking" and a "slap in the face" to the conference; 50X1
?c) London: the Foreign Office expressed astonishment "at
such a retrograde step";
d) Geneva: Western diplomats were reported to be stunned."
Ormsby-Gore, recording his shock. said that the world's vArdirt
"will no doubt be clear."
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? -
1. Brazil
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Late press reports assert that the 50X1
Brazilian armed forces have been
ordered into action against Rio
Grande do Sul where Goulart's
brother-in-law, Governor Brizola,
with the support of the local
military, threatens armed resistance
against any anti-Goulart solution and
continues highly inflammatory and
anti-American propaganda. The step
may indicate that the military chiefs
have taken over the government.
Earlier this morning, in a joint
session, the Brazilian congress had
given overwhelming approval to a
constitutional amendment which would
permit Goulart to be installed as
ceremonial president, with a prime
minister (possibly Kubitschek) to
be named by congress. As yet
undetermined is the\question of
presidential powers,', with some
favoring substantial powers akin
to those of De Gaulle and others
a mere figurehead like Gronchi.
Goulart, meanwhile, has reached
Panama. His destination appears to
be Buenos Aires or Montevideo, where
he would have a jumping-off place into
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2. Berlin
L
a) The US Mission in Berlin reports
that West Berliners' nerves have been
further frayed by recent Communist
statements about air access. Our
mission believes that, if the Com-
munists succeed in establishing any
kind of control over civilian traffic
in the corridors, the West Berliners' 50X1
feeling of entrapment is likely to
reach panic proportions.
b)
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West Berlin musicians and actors 50X1
as well as doctors working in East
Berlin have recently been urged by
East Berlin authorities to move there
permanently before 31 August, could
presage further restrictive measures
on the East-West German zonal border
and the sector borders of Berlin,
c) further study of Moscow's 29
August announcement, holding up the
release of servicemen due to end their
tours in 1961, suggests that an in-
crease of as much as 750,000 in the
Soviet armed forces (the present
total is about 3,000,000) could
result. We believe, however, that
this would happen only in the unlikely
event that there were no discharges
from the 1961 group as well as a
full call-up of eligible new conscripts.,
A considerably smaller addition,
possibly in the neighborhood of
,350.000. is therefore. probable.
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NOTES
B. Rumors of plotting against the Ethiopian Emperor are on the
increase in Addis Ababa on the eve of his departure for the
Belgrade Conference, Our Embassy believes that the lessons of
last December's abortive revolt might give any plotters pause,
but nevertheless, views the situation as fragile.
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WATCH COMMITTEE CONCLUSIONS--30 August 1961
No Sino-Soviet bloc country intends to initiate direct military
action in the immediate future.
The pattern of current activity in the Novaya Zemlya area
(western Arctic) shows similarities to that which preceded pre-
vious Soviet nuclear tests in the area.
Berlin: There are indications of recent intensification of
East German Air Force training for interception of high-perform-
ance aircraft. The Soviet note of 23 August and bloc prop-
aganda on air access to Berlin appear designed to buttress
East German claims to control of all West German travel to
West Berlin. The Communists may now undertake harassment
of Western civil air access to West Berlin,
Laos: Nothing significant has
ing last week's conclusion
the USSR will press even more strongly for the formation
of a government under. Souvanna Phouma during the next few weeks.
However, we see no clear indications that the USSR will make
significant concessions toward this end. There are indications
of preparations by both the Communist and Phoumi forces for
increased military operations.")
ocaurred to warrant chang-
1 1
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