IRAQI PUBLIC OPINION: WHAT CAN WE LEARN ABOUT THE STATUS OF KEY US OBJECTIVES IN IRAQ?

• Document Type: FOIA
• Keywords: IRAQI U.S.
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005732919
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: June 24, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 14, 2011
• Case Number: F-2011-01450
• Publication Date: March 18, 2004

APPROVED FOR RELEASE^
DATE: 09-07-2011
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A Conference Report
OTI-IA20p4.015
 Iraqi Public Opinion: What Can We Learn
About the Status of Key US Objectives in
Iraq?
A Conference Report
Key Findings Publicly available surveys of Iraqi opinion are providing general insights
into public views but offer limited information on-the process of key US
policy goals. The surveys are roughly consistent on a few key issues:
? There is a widespread belief that US intentions in Iraq' are different than
those US officials publicly state. Several surveys indicated Iraqis believe
the key U5 objective is to gain access to Iraq's oil.
? Iraqis do not view the democratic process in the same way many
Americans do. Many respondents distrust political parties and believe
that Islam should have a prominent role in any democracy.
? Iraqis support a government that responds to citizen needs and that
promotes freedom of speech, assembly, and worship. They are currently
. more interested in social stability, public order, and jobs, however, than
in abstract concepts such as democratization.
The surveys are not yet'providing the more tactical information that would
be useful in informing US policies, according to participants ai a recent
CIA conference. !n the absence of traditional economic and governance
indicators for Iraq, however, public opinion surveys are one of the few
methodological tools that potentially can "quantify" the success of US
policies.
? Public opinion polling is new in Iraq and is being undertaken in a rapidly
evolving environment; experts are still working out the best way to
conduct polls and interpret the data they provide.
? The surveys currently provide few insights into which individuals wield
influence on Iraqi public opinion and are just now developing baselines
to identify events that are likely to precipitate mass action.
Conference ariici ants were confident that refinements in 11tH
information on the success of US strategies.
? Participants suggested refining the polling questions, increasing the use
of focus groups to back up poll data, improving coordination among
polling organizations, and more carefully identifying the key objectives
of individual polling efforts.
 Iraqi Public Opinion: What Can
We Learn About the Status of
Key US Objectives in Iraq?
A Conference Report
n 18 December, the
f the CIA's Office of Transnational
Issues assembled a group of experts with recent
experience on the ground in Iraq to discuss publicly
? In the absence of traditional economic and
governance indicators, public opinion surveys are
currently the only methodological tool available for
obyectively "quantifyins'the success of US policies
in Iraq.
? Because public opinion polling is new in Iraq and is
being undertaken under rapidly evolving social and
economic conditions, experts are still working out
interpret the data collected.
Conference participants agreed that Yindings from al]
of the surveys were roughly consistent on a few key
issues, a possible indication that the surveys are a
reasonably accurate reflection of Iraqi opinions on
selected topics:[
objectives in Iraq.
~ Because each poll was conducted in different areas of the
country using different questions, experts cannot be cenain
[hat this convergence is not coincidental ~r the_t~esulF of factors
unrelated [o the convergence of opinions
This assessment was prepared by the Office of Transnational Issues and Forei n Broadcast Information
Service. Comments and queries are welcome and may be directed to the
~IbTI, nn
 ? Iraqis generally support o government that is fair
and responsive to citizen needs and that encourages
democratic ideals such as freedom o s ech and
worshi and re ular elections.
? All of the surveys oral anecdotal reports i-ulicate
that the prime concerns for the average Iraqi are
food, shelter, electricity. and security. ~
Conference participants thought the polls and surveys
provided little concrete evidence of the extent to
which the United States is failing or succeeding at
reaching its goals:
and of polls targeting elites, pollsters generally are
unable to determine which elites have the ability to
affect change through concrete actions.
? The volatility of Iraq's civil society limits the extent
to which pollsters can design surveys that provide
insights into the propensity for a majority of Iraqis
to undertake concrete actions that could undermine
or bolster US objectives.
? Pollsters aze just now getting baselines and are not
yet able to track, in a methodologically sound
manner, the factors that change opinions
Publicly available opinion surveys also often do not
provide information on what is driving many Iraqi
opinions, thereby reducing the surveys' usefulness in
helping US policy makers design concrete solutions
to problem areas or reinforce efforts in areas of
success.
? Most pollsters that have completed public opinion
surveys over the past yeaz have not repeated the
same poll with the same questions to determine
whether survey findin s reflect endurin o inions
or snapshots in time.
? Due to the lack of public opinion surveys designed
to identify Iraq's key power brokers on many issues
 Interpretatlor~
Conference participants stressed that cultural and
social differences between those who use the polls
(Westerners) and those who respond to them (Iraqis)
complicate their interpretation.
"citizenship," "democracy;' and "secularism"
differently and from entirely different points of
reference. Conference participants noted, for
example, that many Iraqis associate the word
democracy with Saddam's Bath party, which
usurped the term to gain legitimacy.
? The type of political system most favored by Iraqis
also is uncleaz in relation to the role of Islam.
Individuals in several surveys, for example, thought
lslam should have a prominent role in a future Iraqi
state, bu[ were also supportive of democracy. Man
described a preference fnr "Islamic democracv"
Increasing the "Actionable" Information in Iraqi
Opinion Surveys ~~
Participants suggested four enhancements to current
surveys and analytic methods to increase the
"actionable" information they provide: refining the
questions, paying more atten[ion to the factors in both
Iraq and globally that will drive Iraqi public opinion
and expectations, enhancing coordination among
Refining the Questions
Many of the questions included in the public opinion
surveys cited at the conference-such as on
democratization or on what individuals believe will
happen three to five years from now-are too abstract
to identify how US strategies are faring.
? Participants thought that asking more direct
questions about individuals' daily lives would
provide more insight into Iraqi views of the United
States and enable US officials to quickly identify
problem areas. Basic questions-such as: Does
your local council have enough money and is it
doing what needs to be done? Are you able to feed
your family? Ao you have a voice in local
politics?-would give US officials a good idea of
Iraqi grievances at any given time and facilitate
more targeted solutions.
? Using open-ended questions and focus groups could
elicit more solid input from Iraqi citizens on what
they believe is best for the future, giving US
officials a better understanding of potential Iraqi
reactions to US policies. The group suggested
asking questions such as: What would you like the
Coalition Provisional Authority to do that it
currently is not doing? On what should the coalition
be spending its money? How shoo ow
of Iraq's oil industry be managed?~
Clarifying Objectives of the Polls
All participants agreed that designing polls that
provide "actionable" information requires that those
designing and using the polls have clear and specific
objectives. A poll whose aim was to determine the
level of support for particular Iraqi political leaders,
for example, would require different questions than
one.whose aim was to determine the level of political
Coordinating Polling Efforts
All of the conference participants agreed that polling
organizations would have much richer and more
actionable findings if they worked together more
 Tracking Drivers of Iraqi Public Opinion
Many different factors drive Iragi~as any other-
public opinion at any given time, but polling and
focus goup experts generally have not yet done
enough work in Iraq to discover which ?actors are key
and why. In the few cases where this information is
avai]abie, providing it in poll write-ups would assist
in clarifying the implications of Iraqi public opinion.
Participants stressed the need to pay attention to both
the manner in which developments globally and in
the United States--including the 2004 elections-
affect Iraqi public opinion and also Uagi willingness
to support key US objectives.
? Experience with polling in other volatile wuntries
such as Bosnia and Herzegovina and Afghanistan,
where polling infrastructures are either nonexistent
or poorly developed, indicates it can take a year or
longer to design opinion surveys that are able to