SOVIET CAPABILITIES FOR LONG RANGE ATTACK

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005640398
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: June 24, 2015
• Document Release Date: April 8, 2011
• Case Number: F-2011-00763
• Publication Date: August 8, 1962

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~NTELL-GENGE STIO~AAT
UMBER 11-8-62
(Supersedes ME 11-8-61 andHIE :] 1-8/1-61)
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APPROVED FOR RELEASE - CIA INFO
DATE: 22-Mar-20 11
lIMITED : DISTRIBUTION
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the sensitivity, of this document .-requires that It be handled with --maximum security:.
precautions ,on a' ,med-to4now basis tecipients Will nacre hat s-nly personnel
ng proper clearance tend :.a .eed-to-1rnww, will fore access io ftllocument
;Subm~isd by :the
DIRECTOR OF CCNTRAL INTELLIGENCE
Concurred in by the
'UNITED STATES ANTMIGENCE BOARD
a:
6 JULY 1962
CT
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Fluty, 962
TS #0037431.
 Dep Sew
f;L'r 15 p,.Xf ~-'RAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
DDEFE ;SE
8 August 1962
MEMORANDUM TO HOLDERS OF NIE 11-8-62: "SOVIET CAPA-
BILITIES FOR LONG RANGE ATTACK," dated 6 July 1962, TOP
SECRET
SUBJECT: Revision of Estimated Soviet Strength in Heavy Bombers
1. A new assessment of Soviet heavy bombers and tankers in Long
Range Aviation, conducted subsequent to the approval of NIE 11-8-62
by the United States Intelligence Board on 6 July 1962, indicates that
the estimate of BEAR turboprop heavy bombers in NIE 11-8-62 was
too low. We now believe that there are about 70-80 BEARS in opera-
tional units, rather than 55 as estimated in NIE 11-8-62. We also
conclude, with respect to BISON jet heavy bombers and tankers, that
the range of 100-120 aircraft in operational units is a better estimate
than the single figure of 110 given in NIE 11-8--62. On this basis, we
now estimate that the USSR has approximately 170-200 heavy bombers
and tankers in operational units as of mid-1962.
. 2. We continue to believe that production of BISONS and BEARS
has ceased. We estimate that Soviet operational strength in these air-
craft will remain fairly stable for the next year or so and then decline
gradually through normal attrition. The table below revises and super-
sedes the numerical estimates of Soviet heavy bombers and tankers in
paragraphs 20 and 29 of NIE 11-8-62:
Heavy Bombers
and Tankers Mid-1962 Mid-1963 Mid-1964 Mid-1965 Mid-1966 Mid-1967
BISON .......... 100-120 100-120 95-115 90-110 80-100 70- 90
BEAR ............ 70- 80 . 70- 80 65- 75 60- 70 50- 60 40- 50
Approximate Totals 170-200 170-200 160-190 150-180 130-160 110-140
3. All members of the USIB agree that Soviet strength in BISONS
and BEARS is likely to fall within the foregoing ranges. As indicated
in his dissenting footnotes to paragraphs 20 and 29 of NIE 11-8-62,
however, the Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, USAF, believes that
total Soviet heavy bomber and tanker strength will remain at approxi-
TO T
GROUP 1
Excluded from automatic
downgrading and
declassification
 TS 0037463 T T
mately 200 aircraft, with the probable introduction of a follow-on
supersonic heavy bomber into Long Range Aviation units beginning
in 1964. To the table above, he would add 10 follow-on heavy bombers
in mid-1964, 20 in mid-1965, 40 in mid-1966, and 60 in mid-1967. The
majority of the USIB continues to believe that BISONS and BEARS
will probably comprise the entire Soviet force of heavy bombers and
tankers over the next five years.