STATEMENT ON CUBA SENATE SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE JULY 29, 1993

• Document Type: FOIA
• Keywords: LATIN AMERICA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005618199
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: June 24, 2015
• Document Release Date: February 16, 2011
• Case Number: F-2010-01786
• Publication Date: July 29, 1993

APPROVED FOR RELEASE[]
DATE: 31-Jan-2011
STATEMENT ON CUBA
SENATE SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE
aVL 29, 1993
 J UL .]U "-i:J 10: G4HP1 1.1H/rUbLil Ht t Hitt r ? o
STATEMENT ON CUBA
SENATE SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE
JUL 29, 1993
BRIAN LATELL
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE OFFICER FOR LATIN AMERICA
FIDEL CASTRO'S GOVERNMENT IS IN ACUTE DISTRESS. THE ECONOMY
HAS CONTRACTED BY MORE THAN 40 PERCENT SINCE 1989 AND IS ON A
COURSE LEADING TO FURTHER DECLINE. LARGELY BECAUSE THIS YEAR'S
SUGAR HARVEST IS THE SMALLEST IN 30 YEARS, EXPORT REVENUES WILL
FALL TO ABOUT $1.6 BILLION, DOWN FROM OVER $5 BILLION IN 1989.
MOREOVER, THE PROSPECTS FOR MUCH GROWTH IN EXPORT EARNINGS
ARE POOR BECAUSE OF SEVERE SHORTAGES OF FERTILIZERS AND
HERBICIDES, THE DECREPITUDE OF SUGAR MILLS AND EQUIPMENT; AND
MOUNTING TRANSPORTATION PROBLEMS. EARNINGS FROM NICKEL AND OTHER
TRADITIONAL EXPORTS ARE UNLIKELY TO RISE MUCH ABOVE THE LEVELS OF
RECENT YEARS BECAUSE OF FALTERING PRODUCTION AND LOW PRICES.
NON-TRADITIONAL EXPORTS HAVE ONLY MARGINAL PROSPECTS UNLESS CUBAN
SCIENTISTS WERE TO DEVELOP CUTTING EDGE PHARMACEUTICAL OR MEDICAL
PRODUCTS AND MARKET THEM EFFECTIVELY ABROAD.
GROSS REVENUES FROM TOURISM ROSE ABOUT 33 PERCENT LAST YEAR
TO NEARLY $400 MILLION, BUT THE NET CONTRIBUTION TO THE ECONOMY
IS RELATIVELY SMALL BECAUSE OF HIGH OPERATING COSTS. FOREIGN
INVESTMENT OF ABOUT $100 MILLION ANNUALLY BETWEEN 1990 AND 1992
HAS BEEN LARGELY IN THE TOURIST SECTOR.
CUBA IS RECEIVING ONLY MINIMAL FOREIGN CREDITS AND IS
UNLIKELY TQ RECEIVE MORE BECAUSE ITS MORE THAN $7 BILLION HARD
 CURRENCY DEBT TO WESTERN CREDITORS HAS BEEN IN ARREARS SINCE THE
MID-1980S.
AS A RESULT OF THESE FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS, IMPORTS, WHICH
DECLINED BY NEARLY 75 PERCENT BETWEEN 1989 AND 1992, WILL FALL
ANOTHER 20 TO 25 PERCENT THIS YEAR. WITH FOOD AND PETROLEUM
CONSTITUTING NEARLY TWO THIRDS OF IMPORT SPENDING, ONLY SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR OTHER PURCHASES,
INCLUDING ALL CONSUMER NEEDS AND MILITARY SUPPLIES.
SEVERELY CURTAILED IMPORTS OF INDUSTRIAL SPARE PARTS,
MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT, TRANSPORTATION GOODS, AGRICULTURAL
INPUTS, AND OTHER CRITICAL COMMODITIES WILL FURTHER UNDERMINE THE
PROSPECTS FOR ECONOMIC RECOVERY.
THE IMPACT OF THE ECONOMIC CRISIS ON THE POPULACE HAS BEEN
DEVASTATING. FOOD SHORTAGES AND DISTRIBUTION PROBLEMS HAVE
CAUSED MALNUTRITION AND DISEASE, BUT ALTHOUGH THE DIFFICULTIES OF
SUBSISTING WILL INTENSIFY, THE REGIME SHOULD BE ABLE TO PREVENT
LARGE SCALE STARVATION. PUBLIC HEALTH, SANITATION, AND OTHER
SERVICES WILL FURTHER DETERIORATE, ADDITIONAL FACTORIES WILL BE
IDLED (MORE THAN HALF ALREADY HAVE CURTAILED PRODUCTION), AND
THOSE UNEMPLOYED OR UNDEREMPLOYED WILL PROBABLY RISE TO AT LEAST
HALF OF THE LABOR FORCE. FUEL SHORTAGES ARE NOW CAUSING DAILY
BLACKOUTS OF UP TO 10 TO 16 HOURS IN HAVANA, AS WELL AS THE
VIRTUAL COLLAPSE OF PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION. MR. CHAIRMAN, ONLY
SMALL SEGMENTS OF THE POPULATION WILL ENJOY ANY AMELIORATION OF
THESE PRIVATIONS.
CUBA'S LEADERS. RECOGNIZE THE GRAVITY OF THE SITUATION AND
 JUL 3b '93 1u: Hfl L1H/YU