COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS OF UFO PANEL (PUBD UNKNOWN)

• Document Type: FOIA
• Keywords: UFO SPECIAL COLLECTION
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005516126
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: June 24, 2015
• Document Release Date: January 31, 2011
• Case Number: F-2010-00651
• Publication Date: January 21, 1953

C00015458
COTS AND SUGGESTIONS OF tF0 PANEL
f
The Panel Members were impressed with the lack of
sound data in the great majority of case histories. Among
the case histories of significant sightings discussed in
detail were the following:
Bellefontaine, Ohio (l August 1952); Tremonton, Utah
(2 July 1952); Great Falls, Mon:.-ana (15 August 1950);
Yank, Uontana (l September 1952); Washington, D.C.
area (19 July 1952); and Haneda A.F.B., Japan
(5 August 1952), Port-Huron, Michigan (29 July 1952);
and Presque Isle, Maine (10 October 1952).
After review and discussion of these cases (and about
25 others, in less detail), the Panel concluded that
reasonable explanations could be suggested for most sight-
ings and "by deduction and scientific method it could be
induced (given additional data) that other cases might be
explained in a similar manner". The Panel pointed out that
because of the brevity of some sightings (e.g., 2-3 seconds)
and the inability of the witnesses to express themselves
clearly (semantics) that conclusive explanations could not
be expected for every case reported. Furthermore, it was
considered that, normally, it would be a great waste of
effort to try to solve most of the sightings, unless such
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action would benefit a training and educatidnal program
(see below). The writings of Charles Port were referenced
to show that "strange things in the sky" had been recorded
for hundreds of years. it appeared obvious that there was
no single explanation for a majority of the things seen.
On Lack of Danger.
The Panel concluded unaninously'that there was no
evidence of a direct threat to national security in the
objects sighted. Instances of "Poo P,.ghters" were cited.
These were unexplained phenomena sighted by aircraft
pilots during World gar II in 'both European and Far East
theaters of operatic wherein "balls of light" would fly
rear or with the aircraft and maneuver rapidly.. They were
believed to be electrostatic (similar to St. Elmo's fire)
or electromagnetic phenomena or possibly light reflections
from ice crystals in th. air, but their exact cause or
nature was never deti:.~-d. If the rterm "tlying saucers"
had been popular in 1943-1945, than. objects would have
been so labeled.
It was the panel's opinion that some of the Air Force
concern over TIFO's (notwithstanding Air Defense Command
anxiety over fast radar tracks) was probably caused by
public pressure. The result today In-that the Air Force
 C00015458
M
has instituted a fine channel for receiving reports of
nearly anything anyone sees in the sky and fails to under-
stand. This has been particularly encouraged in popular
articles on this and other subjects, such as space travel
and science fiction. The result is the mass receLpt of
low-grade reports which tend to overload channels of
communication with material quite irrelevant to hostile
objects that might some day appear. -The panel agreed
generally that this mass of poor-quality reports containing
little, if any, scientific data was of no value. Quite
the opposite, it was possibly dangerous in having a military
service foster public concern in "nocturnal meandering
tights". The implication being, since the interested
agency as military, that these objects were or might be
potent-'al direct threats to national security. Accordingly,
the used for deemphasization made itself apparent. Comments
on a possible educational program are enumerated below.
It was the opinion of one of the Panel members.tbat
the "saucer" problem had been found to be different in
nature from the detection and investigation of German V-1
and V-Z guided missiles prior to their, operational use In
World War II. In this 1943-1944 intelligence operation
(CROSSBOW), there was excellent intelligence, and by June
 000015458
1944 there was material evidence of the-existence of
"hardware" obtained from crashed vehicles in Sweden. This,
evidence gave the investigating team a basis upon which to
operate. The absence of any "hardware" resulting from
unexplained tWO sightings lends a "will-of-the-wisp" nature
to the problem. The results of the investigation, to-date,
strongly indicate that no evidence of hostile act or
danger exists. Furthermore, the current reporting' system
woLid have little value in the case of detection of enemy
attack by conventional aircraft or guided missiles; under
such conditions-"hardware" would be available almost at
once.
Artifacts of Extratorrestial Origin.
It was interesting to note that none of the members of'
the Panel were loath to accept that this earth might be
visited by extraterrestrial intelligence beings of some
sort, some day. What they did not find was any evidence
that related the objects sighted to space travelers. One
of the Panel members, in his presentation, showed how he
had eliminated each of the known and probable causes of
sightings leaving him "extra-terrestial" as the only one
remaining in many cases. His background as an aeronaut-
ical engineer and technical intelligence officer could not
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the cases cited by his because they were raw, unevaluated
reports. Terrestrial explanations of the sightingSwere
suggested in some cases, and in others the time of sighting
was so short as to cause suspicion of visual impressions.
It was noted by others of the Panel members that extra-
terrest.ial artifacts, it they did exist, are no cause for
alarm; rather, they are in.tbe realm of-natural phenomena
subject to scientific study, Just as'cosmic rays were at
the-time of their discovery 0 to 30 years ago. This was
an attitude in which anotbr: of the Panel members did not
concur, as he-felt that'such artifacts would. be of immediate
and great concern not only to the._V.S. but to all countries.
(Nothing like a common threat:: r alto peoples!), It was
noted that present astrnowledge of the solar system
makes the existence of intelligence' beings (as we know the
term) else-share than on the'earth extremely unlikely, and
the concentration of their attention by any controllable
means confined to any one continent of the earth quite
preposterous.
Tremontoa~__Utah
,Sighti .
This case was considered significant because of the
.excellent documentary evidence in the form of Kodachrome
notion picture films (about 1600 frames). The Panel
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studied these films, the case history, ATIC's interpreta-
tion, and received a briefing by representatives of the
USN Photo Interpretation Laboratory on their analysis of
the film. This team had expended (at Air Pbrce request)
approximately 1000 man-hours of professional and sub-
professional time in the preparation of graph plots of
individual frames of the film, showing apparent and.
relative motion of objects.and variation in their light
intensity. It was the opinion of the P.I.L. representatives
that the objects sighted were not birds, balloons or
aircraft, were "not reflections because there was no
blinking while passing through 600 of arc" and were,
therefore, "self-luminous". Plots of notion and variation
in light intensity of the objects were displayed. While
the Panel ;:embers were impressed by the evident enthusiasm,
industry and extent of effort of-the P.I.L; team, they
would not accept the conclusions reached. Some of the
reasons for this were as follows:
a. A semi-spherical object can readily
produce a reflection of sunlight without "blink-
ing" through 600 of are travel.
b. Although no date vas available on the
"albedo" of birds or polyethylene balloons
on,
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in bright sunlight, the apparent motions, sizes
and brightnesses of the ob3eets?were considered
strongly to suggest birds, particularly after the
Panel viewed a short film showing high reflectivity
of seagulls in bright sunlight.
a. P.I.L. description of the objects sighted
as "circular, bluish-white" in color would be
bxpected in cases of specular reflections of sun-
light from convex surfaces where the brilliance
of the reflection would obscure other portions of
the object.
d. Objects in the Great Falls case were
believed to have. probably been aircraft, and the
bright lights such reflections.
e. There was no valid reason for the attempt
to relate the objects in the Tremonton sighting to
those in the Great Falls sighting. This may have
been due to misunderstanding in their directive.
The objects in the Great Falls sighting are
strongly suspected of being reflections of air-
craft known to have been in the area.
S. The intensity change in the Tremoonton
lights was too great for acceptance of the P.Z.L.
hypothesis that the apparent motion and changing
 C00015458
intensity of the lights indicated extremely high.
speed in small orbital paths. ?
g. Apparent lack.-of guidance of investi-
gators by those familiar with UPO reports and
explanations.
h. Analysis of light intensity of objects
made from duplicate rather than original film.
The. original film was noted to have a much lighter
background (affecting relative brightness of
object) ant the objects appeared. such less bright.
i. Method of obtaining data of light
intensity appeared faulty. because of unsuitability
of equipment and questionable assumptions in making
averages of readings.
No data had been. obtained oi: the cansi-
aivity of Kodachrome film to light of various
intensities using the same camera type at the
same lens openings.
k. Hand "Jitter" frequencies (obtainable
from early part of Tremonton film)'were not
removed from. the plots of the "single pass plots"
at the end of the film.
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The panel believed strongly that the data available
on this sighting was sufficient for positive identification
if further data is obtained by p~.-%tographir. .olyethylene
"pillow" balloons released near the site under similar
weather conditions, checking bird flight and reflection
characteristics with competent ornithologists and calculating
apparent "G" forces acting upon objects from their apparent
tracks. It was concluded that the results of such tests
would probably lead to creditable explanations of value in
as educational or- training. program. However, the panel
noted that the cost in technical manpower effort required
to follow up and, explain. every one of the thousand or
more reports received through channels each year (1,800 in
1952) cc_ld not be justified. It was felt that there will
always be sightings, for which complete data is lacking,
that can only be explained with disproportionate effort
and with a long time delay, if at all. The long delay in
explaining a ,ighting tends to-eliminate any intelligence
value. The educational or training program should have
as a major purpose the elimination of popular feeling that
every sighting, no matter how poor the data, must be
.explained in detail. Attention should be directed to the
requirement among scientists that a new phenomena, to be
accepted, must be completely and convincingly documented.
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 C00015458
Xn other words, the burden of proof is on the sighter,
not the explainer.
Potential Related Dangers.-
The Panel Members were in agreement that although
evidence of any direct threat from these.sightings was
wholly lacking, related dangers might well exist resulting
a. Misidentification of actual enemy arti-
facts by defense personnel.
b., Overloading of emergency reporting
channels with "false" information ("noisato signal
ratio").
c. subjectivity of public to mass hysteria
and greater vulmerebility to possible enemy
pslchological,warfare.
The first two of these problems may seriously affect
the Air Defense intelligence system, and should be studied
by experts, possibly under.ADC. If UPO's become dis-
credited in & .rotation to the "flying saucer" scare, or if
reporting channels are saturated with false and poorly
documented reports, our capability of detecting hostile
activity will be reduced. More competent screening or
filtering of reported sightings at or near the source is
 C00015458
required, and this can best be accomplished by an educa-
tional program.
Geographic Locaticsns of Unexplained Sightings.
The map, prepared by ATIC showing geographic locations
of officially reported unexplained sightings (1952 only).
was.examined by the Panel. This map showed clusters in
certain strategic areas such as Los Alamos. This might
be explained on the basis of 24-hour watchful guard and
awareness of security measures near such locations. On
the other hand, there had been no sightings in the vicinity
of sensitive related AE establishments while there were
occasionally multiple cases of unexplained sightings in
non-strategic areas. Furthermore, there appeared to be
no logical relationship to population centers. The panel
could fifld no ready explanation for these clusters. It
was noted, havever, that if terrestrial artifacts were to
be observed, it would be likely that they =?ovld be seen
first near foreign areas rather than camp. .i U.S.
Instrumentation to Obtain Data.
The Panel was of the opinion that the present.ATIC
program to place 100 inexpensive 35 mm, stereo cameras
(Videon Cameras) in the hands of various airport control
tower operators would -robably produce lltti .;l-able
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data related to UFO's. Kowever, it was recognized that
such action would tend to allay public concern in the
subject until an educational program bad taken effect. It
was believed that procurement of these cameras was partly
the result of -public pressure in July 1552. with the poor
results of the year-long Project TWINKLE program of 24-hour
instrumentation watch (two frames of film showing nothing
distinguishable), a widespread program of skywatching would
not be expected to yield much direct data of value.
There was considerable discussion of a possible "sky
patrol" by amateur astronomers and by wide-angle cameras.
It was pointed out that at present a considerable fraction
of the sky is now -- and bas been for many years -- under
surveillance every clear night in several meteor and aurora
observing programs as well as sky mapping programs at the
various locations listed below. Although the attention of
these astronomers is largely directed toward identified
rather than unidentified objects, no case of any striking
unidentified object is known to the Panel. Such an object
would most certainly be reported if found on patrol plates.
A case was cited where an astronomer refused to '.
`interrupt his-exposure in order to photograph an alleged
sighting- in a dii:a==n: ;art of the sky, suggesting thzt if
 C00015458M
a program of watching could be an adjdnct of planned
astronomical programs, little cost would be involved and
that the trained astronomical personnel might photograph
a sighting of an unidentified object.
It was agreed by the Panel that no government-sponsored
program of optical nation-wide sky patrol is worthwhile
at the present time, and that the encouragement of amateur
astronomers to undertake'such a program might have the
adverse effect of over-emphasizing "flying saucer" stories
in the publio mind. However, the issue of radar-scope
cameras for recording peculiar radar echoes would serve
several purposes, including the better understanding of
radar interference as well as identification of UFO's.
This characteristic problem of radar operation
wherein the pulse signal (of approximately the same
frequency) from station A may be'picked up on the screen
of station 9 and show as a high-speed track or series of
dots was racogrtzed to have probably caused a number of
UFO repots. This problem was underlined by information
received indicating ADC concern.in solving this problem
of signal identification before service use of very
high-speed aircraft or guided missiles (1953-1956). One
 C00015458
the use of_a "doppler filter" in the receiving circuit.
Another suggested that the problem might be better-solved
by the use of a "controlled jitter" wherein the operator
receiving "very-fast tracks" (on the order of 1000-33000
mph) would operate a circiuit.which would alter slightly
his station's pulse frequency rate. If the signal received
on the screen had been caused by mutual interference with.
another station, the track would now show itself at a
different distance from the center of the screen, it it.
still appeared at all. Such a technical solution was thought
to be simpler and would cost much less than a "doppler filter".
Zio reported cases were examined: one at Palomar
3tountai_, California, in October 1949, when cosmic ray
counters went "off scale for a few seconds", apparently
while a "V" of flying saucers was observed visually; and
two, a series of observations by the "Los Alamos Bird
Watchers Association" from August 1950 to January 1951,
when cosmic ray coincidence counters behaved queerly.
Circuit diagrams and records were available for the latter,
and a Panel member was also quickly to point out that the
recorded d%ta were undoubtedly due to instrumental effects
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that would have been :recognized as such by more experienced
observers.
The implication that radioactive effects were cor-
related with unidentified flying objects in these two cases
was, therefore, rejected by the Panel.
Educational Program.
The Panel's concept of a broad educational program
integrating efforts of all concerned agencies was that it
should have two major aims: training and "debunking".
Thu.training aim would result in. proper recognition
of unusually illuminated objects (e.g., balloons, aircraft
reflections) as well as natural phenomena (meteors, fire-
balls, mirages, noctilucent clouds). Both visual and
radar recognition are concerned.. There would be many levels
in such education from enlisted personnel to command and
research personnel. Relative emphasis and degree of
explanation of different programs would correspond to the
.categories of duty (e.g., radar operators; pilots; control
tower operators; Ground Observer Corps personnel; and
officers and enlisted men in other categories). This
training should result in a marked reduction in reports
caused by misidentification and resultant confusion.
The "debunking" aim would result in reduction in
public interest in "flying saucers" which today evgkes a
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strong psychological reaction. This education could be
accomplished by mass media such as television, potion
pictures, and popular articles. Basi9 of such education
would be actual case histories which had been puzzling
at first but later explained.. As in the case of conjuring
tricks, there is much less stimulation if the "secret" is
known. Such a program should tend to' reduce the current
gullibility of the public and consequently their suscepti-
bility to clever hostile propaganda.
Meubers of the panel had various suggestions related
to- the planning of such an educational program. It was
felt strongly that psychologists familiar with mass psy-
chology should advise on the nature and extent of the
program. Also,?someone familiar with mass coas+unication
techniques, perhaps an advertising expert, would be helpful.
The teacr'ng techniques used for aircraft identification
-during the pzst war were cited as-an example of a similar
educational task. The amateur astronomers in the U.S.
might be a potential source of enthusiastic talent "to
spread the gospel". It was believed that business clubs,
high schools, colleges, and television stations would all..
be pleased to coops rate in the showing of documentary
type cotton pictures if prepared in an interesting manner.
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The use of true cases showing first the "mystery" and
then the "explanations" would be forceful.
To plan and execute such a?program, the Panel believed
was no mean task. The current investigatory group at ATIC
would, of necessity, have to be closely integrated for
support with respect to not bn2y the historical cases but
the current ones. Recent cases are probably much sore
susceptible to explanation than older ones; first, because
of ATIC's experience and, secondly, their knowledge of most
plausible explanations. The Panel believed that some
expansion of the ATIC- effort would certainly be required.
to support such a program. It was believed inappropriate
to state exactly how large a Table of 4)rganization would be
required.
The Panel believed that, with ATIC's support, the
educatio.l program of "training and debunking" outlined
above mtgbt be requir?d for a minimum of one and one-half
to two years. At the end of this time, the dangers related
to "flying saucers" should have been greatly reduced if not
eliminated. Cooperation from other military services and
agencies concerned (e.g., Federal Civil Defense Administra-
tion) would be a necessity. In investigating significant
cases (such as the Tremonton, Utah, sighting), controlled
experiments might be required. An example would be the
 C00015458
photographying of "pillow balloons" at different distances
under similar weather conditions at'the site.
The help of one or two psychologists and writers
and a subcontractor to.produce training films would be
necessary in addition. The panel cots idered that ATIC's
efforts, temporarily expanded as necessary, could be most
useful in implementing any action taken as a result of
its recommendations. Experience and records in ATIC would
be of value in both the public educational and service
training program envisaged. At least one panel member was
of the opinion that after public gullibility lessened and
the service organizations, such as ADC, had been trained to
sift out the more readily explained spurious sightings,
there would still be a role for a very modest-sized ATIC
section to cope with the residuum of items of possible
scientific intelligence value. ais section should con-
centrate on energetically following up thcae cases which
seemed to indicate the evidence of unconventional enemy
artifacts. Reports of such artifacts would be expected to
arise mainly from Western outposts in far closer proximity-
to the Iron Curtain than Lubbock, Texas!
The panel took cognizance of the existence of such
groups as the "Civilian Flying Saucer. Iwey;ia~to;s"
 C00015458
(Los Angeles) and the "Aerial Phenomena Research Orgah- .
ization (tfisconsin)". It was believed that such organiza-
tiohs should be watched because of their potentially great
influence on mass thinking if widespread sightings should
occur. The apparent irresponsibility and the possible use
of such groups for. subversive purposes should1be kept in
mind.
The cansensus of the panel was, based upon the history
of the subject, that the number of sightings could be
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SCIENTIFIC ADVISORY PANEL ON UNIDENTIFIED
FLYING OBJECTS
14-17 January 1953
Evidence Presented.
1. Seventy-five case histories of sightings 1951-1952
(selected by ATIC as those best documented).
2. ATIC Status and Progress Reports of Project
GRDUGE and Project BLUE BOOK (code names for ATIC
study of subject).
3. Progress Reports of Project STORK (institute.
contract work supporting ATIC).
4. Summary Report of SightingR? at Holleman Air Force
Base, New Mexico.
5. Report of USAF Research Center, Cambridge, Mass.,
Investigation of "Green Fireball" Phenomena
(Project TWIN-ALE).
6. Outline of Investigation of UFO's Proposed by
Kirtland Air Force Base (Project POUNCE).
7. Motion Picture Films of sightings at Tremonton,
Utah, 2 July 1932 and Great Falls, Montana,
August 1950.
8. Summary Report of 89 selected cases of sightings
of various categories (Formations, Blinking Lights,
Hovering, etc.).
9. Draft of manual: 'Bow to Make a FLYOBRPT", pre-
pared at ATIC.
10. Chart Showing Plot of Geographic Location of
Unexplain.4 Sightings in the United States during
1952.
11. Chart Showing Balloon Launching Sites in the
United States.
12. Charts Showing Selected Actual Balloon Flight
Paths and Relation to Reported Sightings.
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13. Charts Showing Frequency of.-Reports of Sightings
1948-1952.
14. Charts Showing Categories of Explanations of
Sightings.
15. Kodaohrome Transparencies of Polyethylene Film
Balloons in Bright Sunlight Showing High
Reflectivity.
16. Motion Picture of Seagulls in Bright Sunlight
Showing High Reflectivity.
17. .Intelligence Reports Relating to U.S.S.R.
Interest in U.S. Sightings.-
18. Samples of Official USAF Reporting Forms and
Copies of Pertinent Air Force, Army, and Navy
Orders Relating to Subject.
19... Sample Polyethylene, "Pillow" Balloon. (54 inches
square.
20. "Variations in Radar Coverage", JANP101 (Manuel
illustrating unusual operating characteristics
of service radar).
21. Miscellaneous Official Letters and Foreign Intelli-
gence Reports Dealing with Subject.
22. Copies Of Popular Published Works Dealing with
Subject (articles and periodicals, newspaper
clippings).