NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005500164
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 22
• Document Creation Date: June 24, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 9, 2010
• Case Number: F-2007-00450
• Publication Date: October 29, 1985

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07-22-2010
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 ti .. Y.
 South Africa: Elections Test White Support
Notes
CEMA-Nicaragua: Increasing Aid
In Brief
Special Analyses
Israel-PLO: Prospects for Israeli Retaliation.
Afghanistan-UN: Insurgent Representatives
__ ...... 13
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 South African Parliamentary Byelections
--Top sow"
 The ruling National Party probably will retain at least four of five
seats being contested in parliamentary byelections tomorrow,
even though rlahtwinn opponents are expected to make a strong
showing
The press reports that the contests probably will be close in two
districts where the rightwing Conservative Party and the Herstigte
National Party are fielding a single candidate against the ruling party.
The liberal Progressive Federal Partv ex a to finish second In the
two elections it has entered,
National Party campaigners, including President Botha, have taken a
tough line in the rural, heavily Afrikaner constituencies of Orange Free
State and northern Cape Province. The appeal to conservative voters
has followed law and order themes, defiant statements of resistance
to foreign pressures, and condemnation of recent liberal opposition
meetings with the African National Congress. Recent polls have
shown an approval rate of 82 percent among Afrikaners nationwide of
state-of-emergency measures
in the contest in Springs district the
contrast to the governmant's program of gradual racial reform.
Comment: The elections will not affect the balance in Par;iament,
where the National Party has 128 of 178 seats, but a poor showing by
the National Party would be a setback for government efforts to sell
Its reform program to whites. The rightwing parties probably will
interpret any narrow victories by the ruling party as a sign that their
support is growing amid increasing dissatisfaction with the
government's handling of unrest and the economy. The Nationalists,
constituencies as a mandate for its present policies.
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 Soviet Bloc countries promised to boost economic and technical aid
to Nicaragua during the second annual meeting of the CEMA-
Nicaragua Mixed Commission which ended Friday in Managua.
According to press releases, Sandinista
poiicymakers claim the new accord will substantially Increase aid, but
they refuse to provide specifics. Projects that CEMA countries are
financing Include cattle and vegetable farms, a deepwater port on the
Atlantic coast, and scholarshi s for Nicaraguan students in the USSR
and Eastern Europe. the
Soviets and East Europeans rejected ananua s continuing a empts
Comment: The Soviets almost certainly saw the meeting as a way to
encourage their allies to increase aid to the Sandinistas. They also
hope that continuing the annual meeting will improve the
effectiveness of Bloc economic aid. Moscow's concerns about its
Increased outlays if Nicaragua becomes a full CEMA member, and
orevent Nicaraoua from becoming any more than an observer.
qW
 i
 Iraq's reported airstrikes against Inland Iranian oil facilities Indicate
Baghdad may be expanding Its air war against economic targets. The
Iraqis claim their Air Force struck four pumping stations Inside Iran
yesterday, although the attacks have not been confirmed so far. The
strikes follow extensive attacks last week against Iranian oil platforms
Comment: The Iranian ability to keep Khark Island functioning
despite continuing Iraqi attacks may have caused Baghdad to extend
its operations into Iran's Interior. Damage to critical pumping stations
and other facilities could decrease refinery output, cut natural gas to
Iranian cities, and reduce oil exports. The Iraqis, however, would need
to make a determined effort to achieve these results. The raids
against the oil platforms are designed to knock out Iranian early
warning stations there, possibly as a prelude to a larger attack on
Khark.
i
 Tog. assomt
40
 i
 Planned Saudi Aircraft Redeployment
'Man
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Planned deployment t GUY
o/ Tomado squadron
Planned FS squadron redeployment
- One from Dhahran
- One from At Tait
- Lightning InteTT ors to be
phased out nwry
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farms ,~ Gulf of Omen
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Saudi Arabia
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 Middle East - Saudi Arabia moving quickly to implement Tornado program ...
first squadron to be based at Dhahran on Gulf ... F-5s to replace
obsolescent Lightning interceptors at Tabuk in January ... British
Syria and Iraq began, exploratory contacts last week at behest of
Saudi Arabia ... high security officials met under guise of routine
border security talks ... Syria's support for Iran obstacle to
Iranian Consultative Assembly yesterday approved 22 of 24
ministerial nominees provided by Prime Minister Musavi ... two
not endorsed had been slated for economic jobs ... shows
Assembly still concerned Musavi has mismanaged economy.
- Prominent Qatari journalist recently completed trip to USSR at
Soviet Invitation. aying down political
Importance .. star may reassess
lack of ties to Moscow.
Liberia to announce today Head of State Doe
won elections ... troops deployed in Monrovia to head off po3sible
violence by oppositionists claiming fraud ... probably could not
- Sudan's last F-5E fighter aircraft lost in air show over Juba Friday
... other than one F-5F trainer, Air Force has no more ground
attack fighters ... although operations against rebels not
significantly affected, will lower troop morale.
- West German newspaper claims Soviets have told wife of Andrey
Sakharov she may travel West for alaucoma treatment at r
convenience
 Reagan-Gorbachev meeting, US-USSR discussions on Latin
Americas - Cuban press reports Soviet Foreign Minister Shevardnadze met
with President Castro on Sunday ... probably discussed coming
- Peruvian Foreign Minister's visit to Ecuador last week, trip to
Chile early November intended to promote President Garcia's
proposal for arms control in region ... major breakthrough
unlikely despite optimism of Chilean Foreign Minister.
- Leaders of outgoing Italian coalition meet today ... Defense
Minister Spadolini's Republicans still distancing themselves from
coalition partners on Middle East, terrorism ... press Insists that
return of Craxi Cabinet intact most likely outcome.
- NATO approved funds for Oslo to build second set of storage
facilities in northern Norway next summer ... will house weapons,
equipment for a second Norwegian brigade now based in south ...
- Netherlands campaigning to win invitation to next May's economic
summit in Japan as EC presidency nation... wants views of
smaller countries represented ... will cite Precedent in 1982 when
South Asia - Several more Pakistani opposition leaders arrested to prevent
united action against Parliament decision granting immunity to
martial-law administrators ... regime likely to try to weaken
opposition by letting principal leader Benzair Bhutto leave country.
-? Israeli Prime Minister Peres met Sri Lankan President
Jayewardene in Paris yesterday ... probably trying to shore up
flagging ties ... Ja ewardene urged to expel Israeli Interests
Section
 Special Analysis
ISRAEL-PLO: Prospects for Israeli Retaliation
Israel probably will launch reprisals comparable to the airstrike
on PLO headquarters in Tunts earlier this month it terrorist
Israel has long claimed the right to attack PLO facilities wherever they
are located, as it did in Lebanon before the invasion of June 1982 and
in Jordan from 1968 to 1970. Such attacks are intended to disrupt the
PLO's infrastructure and to upset planned and ongoing operations.
They are also meant to persuade other Arab governments that they
would be wise to crack down on PLO activities in their countries to
The Tunis raid muted criticism from Likud hardliners-most notably
Minister of Commerce Sharon-that Prime Minister Peres is soft on
terrorism, but they will resume their demands for reprisals if attacks
against Israelis continue. They are certain to press hard for strikes
against PLO bases in Jordan if future terrorist attacks are linked to
planning in Amman. For the time being, however, Peres's newly
strengthened credibility will enable him to keep the upper hand in
Cabinet discussions of terrorist issues and help him forestall Likud
pressure for reprisals against the PLO in Jordan
 Peres and Rabin, however, probably would support punitive action
against PLO bases in Jordan if there were a terrorist "spectacular" or
a series of smaller attacks they believed were launched from Jordan.
In such circumstances, public pressure for retaliation-fanned by
terrorist training camps
The Labor-led unity coalition probably would prefer to attack PLO
facilities in Algeria or In North or South Yemen, believing such action
offers less risk of harming relations with the US and undermining the
peace process than would striking at the PLO in Jordan. Since the
Tunis raid, Peres and Rabin have repeatedly stressed that King
Hussein has not allowed cross-border attacks or establishment of
Jordan and to hold out the threat of further reprisals.
As a warning to Amman, Tel Aviv probably would sharply increase
statements denouncing King Hussein for allowing Palestinians to
operate from Jordan and for supporting an intolerable threat to
Israel's security. If Israel still felt it necessary to attack, it would be
likely to try to reduce the danger to civilians by striking at the PLO
military base near Zarqa rather than at PLO administrative offices In
Amman. Israel's aim would be to force Hussein to expel the PLO from
demands for a more significant show of force.
strategy might disrupt PLO operations for a time, it would not
discourage further attacks over the long term or satisfy Israeli public
As an alternative to airstrikes, Tel Aviv might consider selectively
killing PLO officials responsible for organizing terrorist operations,
Including Arafat's deputy Abu Jihad and his lieutenants. Although this
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 Ts er?t
29 October 1985
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 Special Analysis
AFGHANISTAN-UN: Insurgent Representatives
The arrival of an Afghan resistance delegation at the UN General
Assembly last weak was the first significant effort by the new
Insurgent alliance, Ittihad Islami, to focus International attention
on the Afghan issue. The delegation plans eventually to challenge
the Afghan Government's representatives at the UN and hopes to
seta precedent for representation at other International forums.
The group is led by Islamic fundamentalist Gulbuddin Hikmatyar and
includes a representative of each of the main groups in the Afghan
resistance alliance. The last significant effort by the insurgents to
lobby at the UN was in November 1980, when a delegation-split
between supporters of former King Zahir and aimrrilla -
denied entrance to the General Assembly.
If the insurgents become more visible in International organizations-
and especially if this were to result in serious challenges to the Kabul
regime's credentials-the Soviets would pay a somewhat higher
Gulbuddin and other resistance leaders have in the past played down
political efforts in favor of military activity, but they may come to see
the benefit of a more active international role. An effective
presentation at the UN might also help Insurgent unity efforts. A
fractious, high-profile delegation, on the other hand, would discredit
the resistance, improve Kabul's position, and hamper efforts to build
diplomatic and material support.
Tep-Sty
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 IV