NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005500151
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 30
• Document Creation Date: June 24, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 9, 2010
• Case Number: F-2007-00450
• Publication Date: October 11, 1985

APPROVED FOR RELEASE^ DATE:
07-22-2010
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 ITALY-US- Interception of Hijacker Aircraft
EGYPT:
Last night US F-14 aircraft, flying from the carrier Saratoga,
detected the Egyptian 737 that was transporting the Achille
Lauro terrorists and diverted it to the airbase at Sigonella, Italy.
The operation took place without firing a shot. The aircraft landed
with Italian consent and was surrounded by American and Italian
troops, and the terrorists aboard were taken into custody by Italian
authorities for legal proceedings.
Comment: Rome now is likely to seek legal jurisdiction over the
hijackers and to prosecute them, although Prime Minister Craxi and
his colleagues are almost certain to harbor private reservations about
taking the hijackers into custody. Various Arab terrorist groups have
stepped up activity in Italy in recent and Rome cannot help but
worry about future retaliation
Craxi
has been anxious to project a decisive Image in pu c. le East
policy and Craxi's handling of the crisis, however, have already
created strains within the governing coalition. If the hijackers are
convicted, some Italian officials might lean toward trading them in a
future hostage situation.
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 Somalia: Shipwreck a Chemical Timebomb .................. ..........
South Africa: Day of Prayer .......................................................
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Special Analyses
Nicaragua-Warsaw Pact: Military Assistance Trends in 1985.... 12
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 Yesterday's assault on the Salvadoran military's training center
In La Union was the largest rebel operation in more than a year
and probably will add to pressures on President Duarte to stand
firm In negotiating with his daughter's kidnapers
5th anniversary of the five-faction guerrilla alliance.
Comment: This attack was the largest military action by the rebels
since they seized the Cerron Grande Dam in June 1984, inflicting
more than 150 Army casualties. The training center provided a
convenient target of opportunity given its light defenses.
The action underscores the insurgents' determination to slow the
government's momentum and to refocus public attention on their
military capabilities. It comes against the backdrop of yet another
nationwide transport ban. increased economic sabotage, and urban
The attack is likely to complicate negotiations for the release of
Duarte's daughter. Private criticism of the President's willingness to
negotiate already is evident and may intensify if he fails to respond
forcefully to this latest guerrilla spectacular. The armed forces are
likely to press for a strong military response and reiterate their view
that the captured mayors and other officials held by the rebels should
be included in any exchange of prisoners.
t
FN
 Military Status
1 Zam bezia
/Dk t- fRaFrao~iroh-,
Manica capitals
ieE.ae aryei. Velha
Beira
SSotala
Mozambique
f Chai nel
vr~~
d
Swaziland
I
Tete
Insurgent
-activity
Government
'N 1 MAPUTO operations
Insurgent activity
150 K.IOmeIe,s
150 M,lea
46
 Military Status
Mozambique
~'"; Chan np./
SofaIa lc
Jnsurgent
activity
an .$??
hpeie Yelha
r:,,,' Government
operations
,VMAPUTO
Insurgent activity
40
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4
 Counterinsurgency operations, spearheaded by Zimbabwean
troops, are being expanded before the start of the rains later this
month, but the guerrillas probably will avoid serious acks
and return to the offensive by January.
capitals In Zambezia Province.
Central Mozambique remains the area of heaviest fighting as the
Zimbabwean Arm eyninits its esses in Manica and Sofala
Provinces. a joint Mozambican-
Zimbabwean force has overrun 10 rebel camps and captured large
quantities of supplies, forcing the insurgents to retreat toward the
Zambezi River. Last month government forces retook two district
the Zimbabweans also are preparing a major
along the border with Malawi and remain entrenched in Zambezia and
operation in neighboring Tete Province to counter increased
Insurgent activity there. The guerrillas have extended their presence
In the south, the Army is conducting operations north of Maputo and
is trying to secure roads and rail lines. The insurgents have Increased
their activity near the capital and continue to mount small-scale raids
present level of military support
Comment: The government continues to score gains against the
rebels in the northern half of the country, but the insurgents' tendency
to avoid conventional battles has prevented the Army from Inflicting
heavy casualties. The rebels probably will be able to regroup during
the rainy season. Zimbabwe's participation has cost It more than
100 casualties and millions of dollars, and Harare-faced with Its own
security problems In Matabeleland -orobably cannot sustain the
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46
 unseat President Kyprianou may hobble the government in
The Conservative and Communist Parties have announced they will
introduce a motion to dissolve parliament later this month and to hold
the two parties tope er
permit early presidential elections.
Domestic problems have plagued Kyprianou since UN negotiations
collapsed last January. The Conservatives and Communists blamed
Kyprianou's hardline approach for the Impasse and joined ranks to
agitate for his resignation. Kyprlanou temporarily managed to divide
his opposition by meeting with Clerides over the summer on a
common approach to the Cyprus problem, but these talks broke
Comment: If, as Is likely, the Communists and Conservatives succeed
in winning a two-thirds majority in the legislature, they could make it
increasingly difficult for the President to govern by blocking key
pieces of legislation, including the budget. Nevertheless, the
opposition will still find it difficult constitutionally to force his
resignation before his term ends in 1988
To extricate himself from his domestic troubles, Kyprianou may feign
a more conciliatory attitude toward peace efforts on Cyprus. At the
same time, he might open the negotiations to public debate, in which
he is likely to find support for his hardline positions on such issues as
Turkish troop withdrawals and the return of refugees. Any public
airing of the UN proposals probably would damage efforts to solve the
Cyprus problem.
 unseat President Kyprlanou may hobble the government In
The Conservative and Communist Parties have announced they will
introduce a motion to dissolve parliam
now len9slative elections In Dprernherd
if the two parties together
won a two-thirds majority, t ey would try to amend the constitution to
permit early presidential elections.
Domestic problems have plagued Kyprianou since UN negotiations
collapsed last January. The Conservatives and Communists blamed
Kyprianou's hardline approach for the impasse and joined ranks to
agitate for his resignation. Kyprlanou temporarily managed to divide
his opposition by meeting with Clerides over the summer on a
common approach to the Cyprus problem, but these talks broke
Comment: If, as is likely, the Communists and Conservatives succeed
in winning a two-thirds majority in the legislature, they could make it
increasingly difficult for the President to govern by blocking key
pieces of legislation, including the budget. Nevertheless, the
opposition will still find it difficult constitutionally
resigoation before his term ends in 1988.
To extricate himself from his domestic troubles, Kyprianou may feign
a more conciliatory attitude toward peace efforts on Cyprus. At the
same time, he might open the negotiations to public debate, in which
he is likely to find support for his hardline positions on such issues as
Turkish troop withdrawals and the return of refugees. Any public
airing of the UN efforts to solve the
Cyprus problem.
41
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Mogadishu Harbor Area
i Presidential
Palace
Lit US Embassy\
JUS1S and consulat
buildings
-W artially sunken
freighter
50 500
Metate
Ethiopia
:cSon) aIia
f~
mopSecret
Mogadishu
l;~riratt (;(;,.a;,
290
NYOn.eten
Bound.7.eproeentatWn 1
not neaenen$y evthonteina
 equipment is to arrive in Mogadishu later this month.
has contracted to remove wreckage and clean up the shore; its
Mogadishu remains Imperiled by the Ariadne, a chemical- and oil-
laden Greek freighter partially submerged in Its harbor. Facilities of
the US Embassy and some 200,000 people within a few kilometers of
the shipwreck are threatened by possible explosions, fires, and toxic
fumes from the 50 different chemicals reportedly on board. Scientists
at the site are concerned about dangers to the local population from
exposure to carcinogens, including acetone and dioxin. A Dutch firm
economy and impede US humanitarian efforts.
the rest of the ship. On the other hand, closure of the port for an
estimated monthlong cleanup would hurt the country's weakened
Comment: Salvage and cleanup may be disrupted by the monsoon,
which can begin as early as mid-November. Strong southerly winds
might blow fumes inland, and heavy swells probably would destroy
townships
Many black leaders refused to endorse the work boycott on
Wednesday that was held in conjunction with nationwide prayer
services called by church leaders. Thousands of blacks attended the
services, but response to the boycott was mixed. Press reports,
however, say that 80 percent of black laborers remained off their jobs
in politically volatile eastern Cape Province. There was no major
violence, and security forces were out in force in the nonwhite
while instituting some new limited reforms.
determined to ride out the violence, relying on his security forces
Comment: The refusal to endorse the boycott reflects the divisions in
the nonwhite opposition. Violence has declined since the government
Imposed the state of emergency In July, but local incidents of arson,
looting, and attacks on security personnel and nonwhite
"collaborators" continue daily. Despite growing criticism among
some whites of President Botha's handling of the unrest, he appears
to
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Belgrade has Imposed new controls that extend central authority over
prices to more than half the value of national production. The controls
are intended to ease Yugoslavia's severe inflation, now running at an
annual rate of 80 percent. Under the new measures, proposed price
increases by commercial enterprises require either federal approval
or, in some cases, 30-day advance notice. The controls are similar to
those lifted at the request of the IMF In 1984 and are legally limited to
Comment: Belgrade had contended that it was committed to free
pricing and would resort to price controls only if inflation became
uncontrollable. Prior to the new measures, government price controls
applied to less than 20 percent of production. The new round of price
restrictions will do little to address the underlying causes of
Yugoslavia's rapid inflation. In the meantime, the controls are likely to
undermine the credibility of the government's commitment to free
pricing and hurt Its prospects reschedulin of debt by
official creditors In 1986.
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 for elections set for Tuesday will probably not be completed In time
ballots have not yet arrived in the country and that the
distribution In many rural areas. The government has pledged that by
election day it will pay the back salaries of striking teachers, who have
not been paid since June. Meanwhile, a government-sponsored poll
of predominantly affluent Monrovia residents showed Jackson Doe of
the Liberian Action Party with 60 percent of the vote. Head of State
Doe received 12 percent.
Comment: Head of State Doe Is likely to insist that elections be held,
despite inadequate preparations. Although his victory Is almost
certain, the poll clearly indicates he lacks support among some
members of the urban elite. If the regime 1s unable to pay teachers, it
may take harsh measures to force a settlement, possibly providing a
rallying point for those already frustrated by the tainted election.
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 64
(USSR recently bought 500,000 tons of
Argentine wheat at $91 per ton ... $40 below US price... will ship
1 million tons of Argentine wheat next six month is . confirms
Soviet demand for competitively priced wheat.
... publicity may deflect attention from antialcohol campaign
Pravda Wednesday detailed Soviet program to improve nonfood
consumer goods, services output ... will further strain resources
Austria will accredit Its ambassador In Central America to
El Salvador, a post vacant since 1981 ... signals recognition of
Duarte's move toward democracy ... still opposes US policy
toward Nicara us despite some disillusionment with Sandinistas.
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 Special Analysis
NICARAGUA- Military Assistance Trends in 1985
WARSAW PACT:
The USSR and Its Warsaw Pact ailles have not delivered any
major weapon systems directly to Nicaragua in the first nine
months of 1985, but shipments of military-associated cargo have
increased substantially. The absence of major weapons
deliveries to Nicaragua Is probably temporary and probably
reflects short-term constraints on Nicaragua In absorbing
weapons previously delivered. New military supply aoreements
identified so for this year amount less than
one-third of the total for 1984.
Military Deliveries From Cuba
Additional arms and military-associated cargo almost certainly
continue to reach Nicaragua via Cuba. Cuban merchant ships
regularly travel to Corinto, Nicaragua, and probably are transshipping
equipment from East Bloc countries as well as from Cuban stocks.
Cuban ships call at Nicaragua's east coast ports less frequently, but
they are more likely to carry arms there because the ships can avoid
pass in throu h the Panama Canal. Fragmentary evidence suggests
that small arms, ammunition, and other
materiel may reach Nicaragua on Cuban ships.
continued
-en-9aer+,t-
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Nicaragua Is likely to receive new weapon systems in 1986, including
SA-2 or SA-3 surface-to-air missiles and possibly self-propelled
antiaircraft guns. Additional armored vehicles and tack helicopters
may also be delivered. Nicaraguans
have received training jet Combat aircraft, including the MIG-21
and MIG-23, and In the Czechoslovak L-39 trainer, but there have
been no signs to sug est an Impenclino dell ixed-wing combat
aircraft to Nicaragua.
assistance relationship with Managua less conspicuous
One reason for the lull In major weapons deliveries this year may be
that the rapid acquisition of weapons in previous years has caused
Nicaragua significant operational, training, logistical, and
maintenance problems. Some time is required to absorb and obtain
followup support equipment for complex weapons such as MI-25
attack helicopters and tanks. Moreover, Moscow may have needed
time to assess Managua's future needs and may also be deferring
 Top Sscv&L-
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Nicaragua is likely to receive new weapon systems in 1986, Including
SA-2 or SA-3 surface-to-air missiles and possibly self-propelled
antiaircraft guns. Additional armored vPhIrIA-.q and ack helicopters
may also be delivered Nicaraguans
have received training on jet combat aircraft, including the MIG-21
and MIG-23, and in the Czechoslovak L-39 trainer, but there have
been no signs to sug -
aircraft to Nicaragua.
assistance relationship with Managua less conspicuous
One reason for the lull In major weapons deliveries this year may be
that the rapid acquisition of weapons in previous years has caused
Nicaragua significant operational, training, logistical, and
maintenance problems. Some time is required to absorb and obtain
followup support equipment for complex weapons such as MI-25
attack helicopters and tanks. Moreover, Moscow may have needed
time to assess Managua's future needs and may also be deferring
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