NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005301304
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 27
• Document Creation Date: June 22, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 9, 2009
• Case Number: F-2007-00571
• Publication Date: July 23, 1990

APPROVED FOR RELEASE DATE:
09-01-2009
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 Trilateral Security Proposal
Czechoslovak President Havel and Hungarian President Goncz during their meeting in
Prague on 12 July called for a tripartite pact linking their countries to Poland and agreed the
three countries would try to establish security agreements with NATO as well as with the
USSR. In addition, they discussed the possibility of regional cooperation between their two
countries and the Ukraine and Serbia.
Continued interest in close cooperation among the three most Western-oriented states in
Eastern Europe underscores concerns about potential instability caused by the breakup of the
Pact and, especially for Poland, the fears stimulated by the rise of a united Germany. The
envisioned tripartite organization would facilitate the three countries' integration into
Western Europe. Havel, in particular, probably believes that stability in the USSR would
benefit from such a link between East and West.
The Soviets probably would not object to such an arrangement if it did not interrupt
movement toward a CSCE-based European security framework. The idea that the Ukraine
and Serbia could be associated in such regional cooperation suggests Prague and Budapest
expect these areas may soon have autonomous foreign policies as central authority loosens in
the USSR and in Yugoslavia.
 EASTERN Pact Turning to Diplomacy
EUROPE:
A Warsaw Pact group began work last week on reform proposals that
would begin a formal diem ntling of the Pact's military structure.
The group plans to present the proposals, which include one that
abolishes the Combined Command of the Combined Armed
Forces, to a Pact summit this fall. It also decided that the Pact's
Disarmament Commission should become more active and that the
alliance should submit its concept for a reformed Warsaw Treaty to
the CSCE summit, also in the fall. During the session, East Germany
said it would withdraw from the Pact on unification, and the day
after the meeting it canceled its participation in future Pact military
exercises. The group, which met near Pra2ue. will resume tqlk-q in
Berlin next month.
Comment: The East European states clearly are looking for alternative
forms of cooperation on security issues. Czechoslovakia described the
refurbishment of the Disarmament Commission as a way to build
new security structures in Europe to replace the Pact and overcome
Europe's divisions. Hungary has announced its intention to leave the
Pact, and all members endorse using CSCE to create a Pan-European
security order. The heads of state of Czechoslovakia and Hungary on
security issues.
The Soviets have indicated they expect significant changes in the
Pact's military structures and recently cleared the way for East
Germany to withdraw. Moscow undoubtedly views its allies'
commitments to Pact reforms and to strengthening the Commission
as a way to preserve the Pact's political role until new European
security relations are established. The Soviets are encouraged that
other East European countries are not followine Hunparv'c lead mit ..f
 6 23 July 1990
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 EAST GERMANY: Economy Continues Slide
East Germany's increasingly painful economic restructuring, although
necessary for eventual recovery, is unsettling and Potentially risky for
the de Maiziere and Kohl governments.
Official statistics released last week indicate East Germany's
industrial output in the first half of this year was more than 7 percent
below that of the same period last year. Labor Minister Hildebrandt
announced Wednesday that unemployment had increased by more
than half to 2.5 percent since German Economic and Monetary
Union began on 1 July; in a radio interview yesterday, she reiterated
fears that unemployment will reach 15 to 20 percent this year.
Enterprises have failed to meet payrolls, and managers are trimming
work forces. The Minister-and West German industry-sharply
criticized recent agreements negotiated by West German unions that
Comment: Bonn and East Berlin regard a temporary recession as
necessary to force out inefficient industries, reorganize management,
and reallocate workers. Meanwhile, West Germany is providing
direct short-term aid and is even increasing the pool of credit for
teetering East German industries and farms from $2.4 billion to
$4.8 billion. West German Economics Minister Haussmann is
jawboning West German retailers to buy more East German goods,
and East Germany's Agriculture Minister has approved a $1 billion
package to help farms through the planting season.
If worker protests spread more widely and quickly than anticipated,
divisions between Kohl and his East German Christian Democratic
clients could became serious. A surge in emergency aid costs could
deter vital private investment and force Kohl to consider raising
 OD-
 Military Situation
 In Brief
South Asia - Tamil Tigers on Saturday dynamited key causeway in northern
Sri Lanka linking Tiger-held peninsula to mainland ... despite
repair work, hampers refugees fleeing southward, government
East Asia - All 80 South Korean legislators resigned today as threatened ...
protesting government's tough legislative tactics and demanding
new election ... government refusing to acknowledge resignations
--- Soviet Premier Ryzhkov met Saturday with timber industry
officials to discuss wood, paper shortages ... cutbacks in
newspapers, a key government medium, most visible result of
strained paper supply as glasnost-driven demand rises.
- East German parliament yesterday voted to restore five states
eliminated by Communists in 1952 ... administrative structure
now compatible for union with West Germany ... East Berlin
given status to permit fusion with West Berlin.
Americas - Leftist terrorists in Peru increasing assassinations, bombings
before Fujimori's inauguration as president Saturday .. .
authorities say dozens of unexploded devices also found ...
massive security presence likely at ceremonies.
Middle East - Israel's Labor Party central committee yesterday voted against
forcing early contest for party leadership ... gives Shimon Peres
reprieve un i next Year. but Yitzhak Rabin will continue efforts to
unseat him.
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