NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005301303
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 28
• Document Creation Date: June 22, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 9, 2009
• Case Number: F-2007-00571
• Publication Date: July 21, 1990

APPROVED FOR RELEASE DATE:
09-01-2009
1~i~wil~w~iiiwww
NATIONAL
INTELLIGENCE
DAILY
Saturday, 21 July 1990
CPAS NID 90-169JX
(b)(1)
(b)(3)
 Iraq: Keeping the Pressure on Kuwait
Koreas: North Avoiding Exchanges
: Debating Reduction of Party's Role in Military, KGB 7
Bulgaria: Nationalist Strikes Escalating
Special Analyses Panama: Charting a New Foreign Policy
ou'T~eere~
 Baghdad's tough public stance toward Kuwait probably is meant to
extort financial aid from its neighbor and higher oil prices at the
semiannual OPEC ministerial-level meeting opening Wednesday
hold down oil prices.
Iraq's government-controlled media are reiterating Saddam Husayn's
threats this week of "effective action" to force Kuwait and the United
Arab Emirates to reduce oil production; there has been no explicit
threat of military action. The Iraqi press is emphasizing the regime's
before next week's OPEC meeting
Comment: Baghdad probably hopes Arab efforts to defuse the
situation and popular Arab support for its position will force
Kuwait-and perhaps the UAE as well-to cut back on oil sales and
possibly provide financial aid. More Iraqi threats are likely, especially
publics, most Arab states probably see the dispute as primarily
economic and do not expect military confrontation. If Iraqi saber
rattling continues after the OPEC meeting, however, Kuwait
probably will gain increased support, particularly from Gulf states.
Although Saddam's charges of a US conspiracy may play well to Arab
 Military Situation, Mid-July 1990
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 Monrovia and President Doe and his desperate army seek scapegoats.
must leave before any agreement
the issues under consideration. The rebels continue to insist that Doe
Bridge and gained a foothold on Bushrod Island,
They reportedly are ferrying troops into the area.
the insurgents probably control the electric
generating plant on the island. Fighting is also reported at
Gardnersville and Camp Schieffelin. Numerous army casualties have
been arriving at the local hospital.
departure within 24 hours.
Allegations of US support for the rebels have been increasing daily.
Yesterday, the Foreign Ministry accused the chief of the US Military
Mission of leading the rebel attack on Bushrod Island and ordered his
expatriates
city. In their desperation, they probably will lash out at anyone
suspected of supporting the rebels, including US citizens and other
Comment: The rebels appear to have written off the peace talks and
almost certainly will press for a military solution. With the road to
Sierra Leone closed, Doe's cornered troops are likely to put up stiff
resistance and may attempt to carry out Doe's orders to destroy the
 11
 ~Seete(~
North Korea responded to President Roh's proposal for free travel
between the Koreas yesterday by repeating demands the South has
previously dismissed, but Seoul may offer concessions to maintain
pressure on Pyongyang.
The North is demanding that South Korea release dissidents arrested
for visiting the North and abolish the National Security Law used to
suppress pro-North Korean sentiment. P'yongyang has asked the
South to allow antigovernment groups to travel north before Roh's
planned border opening in order to arrange a reunification rally in the
Demilitarized Zone at Panmunjom on 15 August. The North has also
demanded that massive tank barriers be removed by 12 August.
Comment: P'yongyang almost certainly expects Seoul will rebuff its
conditions, but North Korea may have miscalculated. Roh's dramatic
offer on Friday has won praise in the press as well as from opposition
leaders, and Seoul may follow with more overtures to maintain
momentum toward the prime-ministerial talks scheduled for
September. Some 800 tons of rice collected in the South are to arrive
at a Norte Korean port tomorrow or Monday, and Seoul has pledged
not to seek propaganda advantage by publicizing the gift.
There is little chance South Korea will agree to remove the tank
barriers or abolish the National Security Law, but it may offer some
revisions. The ruling party, for example, has already discussed
abolishing the ban on publicly praising North Korea. Seoul may also
be willing to pardon some of the dissidents arrested this year for
visiting North Korea without the government's approval.
Seoul could also put the ball back in the North's court by accepting
P'yongyang's earlier offer to open its side of the joint security area at
Panmunjom on 15 August. If Seoul inundates the northern side of
Panmunjom with a large number of visitors, P'yongyang might be
embarrassed because the South Korean public would see the North is
not willing to go as far as the South in opening its border. The North
publicized Roh's offer by denouncing it on domestic media, creating
a slight risk that the expectations of its own population will be
 'TorSeecet_
 o
Armenian Militant Activities, Mid-July 1990
Wh-an
S.SR.
Belorussian
Poland S.S.R.
Caspian (r`
Georgian Sea
s.s.R lilies
Soviet guard detachment rmenl..
-
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 off' SMre+-
Armenian militants yesterday reportedly captured a Soviet
guard detachment after a fierce fight near the Turkish border. The
Armenian legislature halted its opening session and sent a delegation
to seek the guards' release. According to a spokesman for the Soviet
Internal Affairs Ministry, Armenian groups this week attacked
Armenian police and security facilities or personnel in at least
10 districts. Meanwhile, four persons were killed and 10 injured in
an explosion on a Georgia-to-Moscow passenger train near the
Ukrainian border in what police call a premeditated act. They
are holding a 34-year-old Azeri suspect who reportedly shouted
a warning to others just before the explosion
Comment: Attacks by extremists against Soviet military facilities
and personnel in the Caucasus have increased in recent months. The
attacks, like those against Armenian security facilities, most likely are
to obtain weapons and neutralize security positions. By interrupting
the legislative session and sending a high-level delegation to deal with
the militants, the Armenian government hopes to convince Moscow
the situation can be handled locally and to prevent the imposition of
a state of emergency. Soviet forces in the area last month accused
local authorities of conniving with the militants.
USSR: Debating Reduction of Party's Role in Military, KGB
Gorbachev's effort, begun at the CPSU congress, to push toward
removing the KGB and the military from party control is being
hotly debated. The new chief of the military's main Political
Administration, General Shlyaga, vigorously opposes depoliticizing
the military and the KGB; in an interview published in Izvestiya
Thursday, he called that prospect "immoral" and expressed
confidence it would not occur. Former KGB official Oleg Kalugin,
who has used media exposes about KGB misconduct to rally support
for the idea, has been nominated to run for a vacant seat in the
legislature of the Russian Republic
Comment: Shlyaga's remarks suggest some senior officials strongly
oppose measures discussed at the congress to depoliticize the
military, but it is clear the issue is now on the political agenda.
Because deputies generally have immunity from prosecution, Kalugin
will be in a better position to use his knowledge of KGB activities to
make the case for depoliticization if he wins election to the Russian
legislature. He may now have some high-level political support.
Russian Republic President Ycl'tsin is a strong proponent of
depoliticization, and some Gorbachev confidants, including
Alexander Yakovlev, may hold similar views. When questioned at
the congress, Yakovlev offered only a mild rebuke of Kaluain's
exposure of KGB activities
 Top
 Divisions in the National Salvation Front over how to handle
antiregime pressure are intensifying. On Thursday protesters in
Timisoara called for the release of jailed student leader Marian
Munteanu and those detained after last month's crackdown. After
meeting with French President Mitterrand this week, Prime Minister
Roman hinted Munteanu might be freed soon. President Iliescu,
however, is maintaining a hard line. He has dismissed student claims
that a videotape shows Munteanu appealing for nonviolence and
refuses to withdraw his thanks to the miners for their brutal
repression of last month's protests. Roman, however, has softened
be prosecuted
Comment: Iliescu's intransigence emphasizes the factionalism within
the Front, especially the divisions between him and Roman. The
Prime Minister has been trying to improve the government's image
in the West; his talks with Mitterrand encouraged France to press
the EC to increase aid for Romania. Roman's willingness to differ
publicly with Iliescu-particularly if supported by Defense Minister
Stanculescu-almost certainly will intensify the President's isolation.
Under such pressure, Iliescu is increasingly likely to renew brutal
repression in response to further protests; another bloody crackdown
may provoke Stanculescu to move against Iliescu.
BULGARIA: Nationalist Strikes Escalating
Strikes protesting ethnic Turkish participation in the National
Assembly have virtually shut down several provincial cities. Regional
chapters of the Committee for the Defense of National Interests,
which organized the protests, have rejected appeals to desist from
its national leadership, from the Assembly, and from the Bulgarian
Socialist-formerly Comm unist-Party. Negotiations between
government representatives and strike leaders broke down Thursday.
removed from the Assembly.
Comment: The Assembly, engrossed in a partisan battle over electing
a new president, is ill prepared to defuse the situation. Although anti-
Turkish sentiment runs high among segments of both the Socialist
Party and the opposition parties, the Assembly is unlikely to censure
the Turkish party, fearing both a backlash from ethnic Turks and
international condemnation. Even if an agreement is reached to settle
this round of strikes, conflicts-some violent-between nationalist
and ethnic Turkish grouns are likely to occur often.
 7rors eFei
USSR: Congress Decisions Push Party Reform
On the basis of incomplete information, the 19 July Daily reported
the new CPSU rules and program make no mention of the party's
vanguard role or the principle of democratic centralism. These terms
in fact do appear in the full text of the rules. The documents therefore
reformers as the initial reporting suggested.
9 21 July 1990
 ,acst~
 US base agreement in vote set for Monday, passage of new election
- Greek New Democracy government obtained majority Thursday
with switch of key centrist deputy ... should ensure ratification of
federal military may provoke Belgrade's intervention.
formation of republic army ... effort to remove republic from
- Slovene Assembly reportedly has restricted service of military
draftees to Yugoslav republics of Slovenia, Croatia ... presages
- South African President de Klerk, ANC leader Mandela met
yesterday, full-scale meeting set for 6 August ... ANC Executive
Council convenes next week ... two sides probably nearin
agreement on release of political prisoners, return of exiles.
 -To-u-srmq--
 - Lithuanian Premier Prunskiene arrived in Moscow yesterday to
begin talks with Soviet officials preliminary to formal negotiations
President Landsbemis says they will nrobably not start it
fall.
declining international support.
displaying activists to accuse US, Czechoslovak, West German
envoys ... trying to deter asylum seekers, but damaging already
Americas - Cuba playing up line foreign diplomats fomenting instability . . .
 Panama's Diplomatic Relations in Latin America
Most Latin American governments that maintained ambassadors in Panama City have
restored full diplomatic relations with the Endara government, but a handful have yet to
send an ambassador.
Leftwing paramilitary leader
Jamaica
Charge; ambassador to be named
None
Peru
Charge; recently upgraded
Two senior Panama Defense Forces
officers
Venezuela
Ambassador
 Special Analysis
Political asylum for Noriega regime figures remains an obstacle to full
relations with Mexico and Peru. Mexico City has granted Noriega's
national bank director asylum in its Embassy, and the Peruvian
Embassy harbors two of Noriega's closest military aides. The Endara
government has criminal charges pending against all three and refuses
to grant them safe conduct out of the country. Nevertheless, Panama
and Peru reportedly are ne otiatin and Lima has accepted a new
Panamanian ambassador.
Panama's reentry into the Rio Group.
has largely subsided, but Mexico, Peru, and Brazil continue to block
In the six months since Manuel Noriega's ouster, Panama has focused
its foreign policy on obtaining US aid and normalizing relations with
its neighbors. Some $420 million in US assistance has begun arriving,
and Panama has exchanged ambassadors with nearly every Latin
American government that previously recognized the Noriega regime.
Several holdouts have raised the level of their representation or have
said they will do so Latin displeasure
over the US intervention, typified y t e Rio roup's demand in
April that the Endara government hold an election to legitimize itself,
stooge Panama City has stopped short of breaking ties.
PANAMA: Charting a New Foreign Policy
The Endara government is abandoning the ambitious, Third
World-oriented policies of recent military regimes and is seeking close
links to Central American countries and the US. It has gained
respectability and acceptance from most of its Latin American neighbors
and has begun receiving substantial economic aid from Washington,
achieving the main foreign policy goals it had on coming to power in
December. Relations with Cuba and Libya have deteriorated badly, but
 The new government has been much slower in trying to improve ties
to Western Europe and Asia, both potential sources of foreign aid.
Strapped for operating funds, several of its key embassies in Europe
remained unstaffed for months. Vice President Arias Calderon has
sought help in Western Europe, but the Europeans give Panama low
priority and have been reluctant to extend aid.
Japan and Taiwan, although reluctant to provide large amounts of
assistance, have pledged aid to clear arrearages if the West Europeans
also contribute. President Endara visited Taiwan last month
Panama will increasingly distance itself from the activist,
Third World-oriented foreign policy of the Torrijos and Noriega
dictatorships, which opposed many US positions in the OAS, the UN,
and the Nonaligned Movement. Endara probably has accepted
exclusion from the Rio G. oup and, reversing Panama's traditional
stance, is exploring closer ties to Central American neighbors. He
recently attended a Central American summit as an observer.
Panamanian officials have also criticized the OAS, which they have
viewed with disdain since mediation efforts between Endara and
Noriega failed last year.
Panama's focus will remain on Washington, its major economic
Nonetheless, cooperation with the US is likely to be aggravated by
nationalist sensitivities, which have already surfaced over US rights
under the Canal treaties and bank secrecy laws, and by Panama's
desire to show it is independent of Washington.
 rmw
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