BLEAK PROSPECTS FOR MEETING KAMPUCHEAN FOOD NEEDS

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005285278
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: June 22, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 23, 2009
• Case Number: F-2008-00929
• Publication Date: April 1, 1980

A Research Paper APPROVED FOR RELEASED DATE: 21-Sep-2009 GC 80-10034 April 1980  This publication is prepared for the use of US Government - officials. and the format. coverage, and content are designed to meet their specific requirements. 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Assessment (.Center Bleak Prospects : for Meeting :Kampuchcan Food Needs A Research Paper Research for this report was completed on 28 March 1980: Comments and queries on this report are welcome and may be directed to: Director of Public Affairs Central Intelligence Agency Washington, D.C. 20505 [phone] For information on obtaining additional copies,`see the inside of front cover.  In support. of planning for UN conferences on Kampuchea, this report forecasts the magnitude of the food shortage confronting that country this year. It estimates the amount of food and seed rice the country will need, taking into consideration the likely effect of the dry season rice prop. Appendix A describes the methodology employed to derive the estimates. The estimates are, of necessity, based on assumptions concerning the size of the Kampuchean population, the caloric intake required to sustain the population, and rates of seeding, milling, and yield. The assumptions themselves are based on recent analyses, historical data, and statements broadcast by the Phnom Penh.government. Tables containing alternative estimates based on differing assumptions are included in appendix B. Small changes in assumed values, however, will not significantly affect the basic conclusion that the Kampucheans will need a considerable amount of assistance if a recurrence of famine conditions is to be averted.  Bleak Prospects for Meeting Kampuchean Food Needs dry season rice crop now being cultivated will, at best, provide only 56,000 estimated to total 645,00.6 tons of milled rice or its caloric equivalent.' The end of March. No significant amounts of food will be available from crops grown in Kampuchea until the next major rice harvest begins next December The amount of food needed from April through November is Food stocks in Kampuchea were expected to be virtually exhausted by the , tons of rice seed if basic food self-sufficiency is to be attained in 1981. Even with a successful dry season rice crop and the fulfillment of the reported assistance plans of international agencies, the USSR and Soviet bloc countries, and private agencies, Kampuchea will still have to secure almost 190,000 tons of food and more than 60,000 tons of rice seed. In addition to food, Kampuchean farmers will need an estimated 103 000 ' Tonnages refer to metric tons throughout this report.  There have been repeated expressions of concern in recent weeks that, in the absence of a continuing large- scale relief effort, famine conditions will reappear in Kampuchea. There is general agreement that output from the recently completed December-January har- vest and relief supplies already in the country will be virtually exhausted by the end of March. This report presents estimates of the amount of food that will be needed until the next major harvest, and the amount of rice seed needed to make the planting of an adequate rainy season rice crop possible. The reported assistance plans of international agen- cies, the USSR and Soviet bloc countries, and private agencies have not been accompanied by clear indica- tions of either Kampuchea's total food and seed requirements or the assumptions made and method- ology employed in estimating assistance needs. On the basis of assumptions and calculations detailed in appendix A, we estimate Kampuchea's total food requirement for the period 1 April through 30 Novem- ber to be 645,000 tons of milled rice or its caloric equivalent. We also estimate that more than 100,000 tons of rice seed will be needed in 1980. We believe recent press reports are correct in indicat- ing that current food stocks in Kampuchea, including relief aid, will be virtually exhausted by the end of March. The next major harvest will take place in December, leaving a period of eight months during which large amounts of aid from abroad will be needed to sustain the country's estimated 5.2 million people. During this period, a total of 645,000 tons of milled rice or its caloric equivalent will have to be made available at an average daily rate of 2,644 tons in order to assure a basic 1,800-calorie-per-day ration for each Kampuchean. The dry season rice crop, part of which has already been harvested and probably consumed, will provide no more than a brief respite from Kampuchea's food shortage problems.' The Heng Samrin government's official press agency claimed in early March that 80,600 hectares of dry season rice had been planted. In comparison, 78,000 hectares of rice was cultivated during the 1967-68 dry season and 105,000 hectares during the 1968-69 dry season, about 3 percent of the total rice area planted in those years. Even if 80,600 hectares had in fact been planted and the yield averaged I ton of paddy rice per hectare (a very optimistic figure), the harvest would provide only 56,000 tons of milled rice-an amount sufficient to provide rations for 21 days. The net effect would be to delay the date of food supply exhaustion from early April to late April and to reduce the amount of food aid needed prior to the major December harvest to 589,000 tons of milled rice or its caloric equivalent. A second problem is to ensure that sufficient rice seed will be available for planting the crop that will be harvested in December. To return the country to a condition of basic self-sufficiency in edible and seed rice, 1.48 million hectares yielding I ton of paddy rice per hectare will have to be planted. A planting of this magnitude will require that 103,000 tons of seed be in the hands of farmers in time for the planting season starting in May. Imported seed probably could not begin arriving before early April, leaving about six weeks to get the seed to the farmers. If all seed has to be imported, this implies an average distribution rate of about 2,450 tons per day-distribution that would have to be accomplished in addition to the average daily food distribution of 2,644 tons. This would appear to be an unlikely achievement since Kampuchean authorities have had difficulty handling aid delivered at an average rate of 1,000 tons per day. ' Food crops can be grown throughout the year in Kampuchea. depending at availability of water, but the planting of the main rice crop is timed to begin shortly after the advent of the rainy season in May or June, with harvest in December-January. This is followed by a much smaller dry season rice crop.  The magnitude of the problem confronting Kampuchea is clear: almost 750,000 tons of food and seed will have* to be obtained to feed the people until the next harvest and ensure the planting of an adequate crop to be harvested at the end of 1980. Where and how such a quantity of food and seed can be secured is less clear. A total of 456,000 tons of food would be available if the dry season harvest does in fact yield , 56,000 tons of milled rice, if the international agencies deliver the currently proposed 250,000 tons of food, if the USSR and Soviet bloc countries deliver 130,000 tons of food as indicated by one recent report, and if ,private agencies are able to supply 20,000 tons of food. This amount of aid, providing rations averaging only 1,272 calories per day for each Kampuchean, would still leave the country short 189,000 tons of food. A shortfall of deliveries of 26,000 tons or more would lower the caloric value of an average ration below the starvation-diet level of 1,200 calories per person per day. i,, acquisition of sufficient rice seed is fully as u,i,,ortant as acquiring sufficient food. In the absence ol a good harvest at year's end, Kampuchea will again '- ~ (aced with food supply problems in 1981. The uternational agencies are currently considering provision of 40,000 tons of agricultural assistance in the form of seed, fertilizer, pesticides, and equipment. Even if this aid delivery consisted of only rice seed, more than 60,000 tons of seed would still have to be secured. If an area commensurate with 60,000 tons of seed is not planted this year, a 1981 food supply shortage on the order of 600,000 tons of milled rice should be anticipated. Numerous reports have indicated that the food supply problem in Kampuchea has been lessened by the movement of food into the country across the Thailand-Kampuchea border. While the reports are undoubtedly, true, the cross-border feeding program is nothing more than another means of distributing food aid; it does not alter the number of people to be fed or reduce the total food requirement. Only deaths and emigration can decrease the number of people in the country to be fed. In addition, the cross-border feeding program must be funded and provided with supplies for distribution just as are the programs that send food into Kampuchea via the ports at Kompong Som and Phnom Penh. As of mid-March, the assistance plans noted here had not been confirmed, funded, or put into operation. Nor had there been any announcement by the Heng Samrin government concerning output from the dry season rice crop, the harvesting of which was reported to be under way in mid-February. Thus, while the assistance plans and the dry season crop hold promise of considerable relief for Kampuchea, the outlook remains grim for that country's food and seed supply situation.  Appendix A Estimating Procedures ,Eight-Month Food Need The food need for the I April-30 November period of 645,000 tons of milled rice or its caloric equivalent was derived on the basis of the following assumptions and calculations: ? A population of 5.2 million people.' A ration yielding 1,800 calories per person per day.4 ? An estimated 3.54 million calories per ton of milled rice' ? A 244-day feeding period. ? No losses from spoilage, pests, and other causes, and no diversion of food to Vietnamese military person- nel, or shipment of food to Vietnam. The computation of food needs involves taking the number of calories per ton of milled rice (3,540,000) and dividing by 1,800 calories per ration to obtain the number of rations (1,966.67) per ton of milled rice; dividing the number of rations per ton of milled rice into the number of people to be fed each day (5,200,000) to obtain the daily milled rice requirement (2,644 tons); and multiplying that requirement by the number of days in the feeding period (244) to obtain a total need of 645,136 tons of milled rice. population was somewhere between 4.7 million and 5.5 million, with to plant 1.48 million hectares to rice in 1980 is based on the most likely estimate being 5.2 million (see appendix C): the following assumptions and calculations: Selection of an 1,800-calorie ration was based on several factors: .There will be a need for 965,000 tons of milled rice to ? Indications that World Food Program plans to provide refugees on the Thai-Kampuchean border with a rice ration yielding 1,770 feed Kampuchea's 5.2 million people in the year ? The Asian Development Bank's report (Asian Agricultural Survey 1976) that indicated a daily per capita intake of 1,780 to 1,940 calories in Indonesia, Bangladesh, and the Philippines provided only 80 to 86 percent of energy requirements. starting 1 December 1980 and ending 30 November 1981 (365 days times 2,644 tons of milled rice per day). 'Data indicate th t K h i ld d a ampuc ean y e s average about 1.2 tons of Alan Berg, In The Nutrition Factor (Brookings Institution, 1973), paddy rice per hectare during the 1950s and 1960s, ranging from cites an estimated 354 calories per 100 grams (3.54 million calories 0.978 tons per hectare (t/ha) for the 1966-67 harvest to 1.551 t/ha per ton) of mil,ed rice. The Food and Agriculture Organization's for the 1969.70 harvest-a year noted for exceptionally favorable (FAO's) Agri. ultural Commodities-Protections/or 1970 and weather conditions. The yield for the 1979-80 harvest was reported 1980 (Rome, 1971) gives a figure of 360 calories per 100 grams to have averaged less than 1,0 t/ha by the Kampuchean Agriculture (3.60 million calories per ton) of rice-type unspecified. The figure Ministry at the end of January 1980. explicitly associated with milled rice was selected for use here. ' Reported milling conversion rates in Kampuchea vary from a low of 0.52 to 0.75 or more, An American agricultural economics adviser working in Kampuchea in the early 196N reported that village mills then returned 55 kilograms of rice from an input of 80 kilograms of paddy rice-a 0.69 milling conversion rate. Rates of 0.60 to 0.74 were indicated for other mills. Dry Season Rice Crop The estimate that the dry season rice crop will yield rations for only 21 days is based on the following assumptions and calculations: ? An area of 80,600 hectares planted in dry season rice. ? A yield of I ten of paddy rice per hectare. 6 A milling conversion rate returning 0.7 ton of milled rice from I ton of paddy rice.' ? A daily milled rice requirement for the country of 2,644 tons. The computation for converting the dry season rice crop to days of rations involves multiplying the area planted (80,600 hectares) times the I ton per hectare yield to obtain output in.terms of paddy rice (80,600 tons); multiplying the paddy output by the milling conversion rate (0.7) to obtain output in terms of milled rice (56,420 tons); and dividing the milled rice output by the daily milled rice requirement (2,644 tons) to obtain the number of days the output will last (21.34). Seed and Planting Area Requirements The estimate that 103,000 tons of seed will be needed  -A yield of 1 ton of paddy, rice per : hectare. A milling conversion ratere'urning 0.7 ton of milled rice from each ton of paddy rice. An average seeding rate of 0.07 ton (70 kilograms) per hectare:;?': The computations required to derive the planted area and seed requirements involve dividing the milled rice ,requirement (965,000 tons) .by the milling ; conversion rate (0.7) to obtain the paddy rice ; equivalent (1,378,657 tons); dividing' the paddy equivalent by the yield (1 ton of paddy per hectare) to obtain the area required to produce the paddy (1,378,657 hectares); and multiplying the area by ? the seeding rate (0.07) to obtain the amount of seed ;` (96,506 tons) needed to meet the country's food requirements. The additional area that must be planted withaddi . tional seed to assure production of seed for planting in 1981 is derived by dividing the amount of seed needs to produce food (96,506 tons) by the yield (1 tor' paddy per hectare) to.obtain the area required produce the paddy for seed use (96,506 hectares), t. then multiplying that area by the seeding rate (0.07) to obtain the amount of seed (6,755 tons) needed to meet the country's seed requirements for 1981. The total area that must be planted is computed by adding the area required to produce food (1,378,657 hectares) to the area required to produce seed (96,506 hectares) to obtain 1,475,163 hectares. The total amount of seed required is computed by adding the amount of seed needed to produce food (96,506 tons) to the amount of seed needed to produce more seed (6,755 tons) to obtain 103,261 tons. ' Seeding rates have been reported to range from 40 to 45 kilograms for directly seeded rice. FAO has used a seeding rate of 80 kilograms per hectare in estimating seed requirements for its Agricultural Rehabilitation Programme in Kampuchea--a rate Implying that almost all planting will be done by the direct seeding method. Historical data, however, indicate that more than half of all rice was transplanted. While labor availability has been reduced by events in recent years, we do not feel that it hrs fallen so low as to virtually eliminate transplanting. A seeding rate of 70 kilograms per hectare transplanting as well.  Appendix B Alternative Estimates Contents Tables 3. as to Population Size and Caloric Intake Per Person Page Tons of Milled Rice Required Per Day Under Varying Assumptions 6 Caloric Intake Per Person Tons of Milled Rice Required for the 1 April - 30 November Period Under Varying Assumptions as to Population Size and Assumptions as to Population Size and Caloric Intake Per Person 'I'ons of Milled Rice Required Per Year Under Varying 4. Millions of Hectares That Must Be Planted 'To Produce the Milled Rice Listed in Table 3 and Seed for Planting the Next Crop 5. Tons of Rice Seed Required To Plant Various Areas at Differing Seeding Rates 8 9 9  Table"1,: 41 Milled Rice Required Per Day' ing Assumptions as to Under Vary Population Size and Caloric Intake Per Person Tons Population (millions) Calories Per Person Per day 1,200 1,300 1,400 : 1,500 ' 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,9(,0 ".)00 2,100 4.0 1,356 1,469 ` '1,582 1,645 1,808 1,921 2,034 2,147 2,260 2,373 4.1 1,390 1,506 1,621 1,737 '. 1,853 1,969 2,085 2,201 2,316 2,432 4.2 1,424 1,542 1,661 1,780 1,898 2,017 2,136 2,254 2,373 2,492 4.3 1,458 1,579 1,701'z,, 1,822, ".`1,944 2,065 2,116 2,308 2,429 2,551 4.4 1,492 1,616 -1,740,',,- 1,864; ? 1,989 2,113 2,237 2,362 2,486 2,610 4.5 1,525 1,653 1,780 1,907 2,034 2,161 2,288 2,415 2,542 2,669 4.6 1,559 1,689 1,819 1,949 2,079 2,209 2,339 2,469 2,599 2,729 4.7 1,593 1,726 1,859,-"` : 1,991 2,124 2,257 2,390 2,523 2,655 2,788 4.8 1,627 1,763 1,898 2,034 2,169 2,305 2,441 2,576 2,712 2,847 4.9 1,661. 1,799 1,938 2,076 2,215 2,353 2,492 2,630 2,768 2,907 5.0 1,695 1,836 1,977 2,119 2,260 2,401 2,542 2,684 2,825 2,966 5.1 1,729 1,873 2,017 2,161 2,305 2,449 2,593 2,737 2,881 3,025 5.2 1,763 1,910 2,056 2,203 2,350 2,497 2,644 2,791 2,938 3,085 5.3 1,797 1,)46 2,096, 2,246 2,395 2,545 2,695 2,845 2,994 3,144 5.4 1,831 1,983 2,136 " 2,288 2,441 2,593 2,746 2,898 3,051 3,203 5.5 1,864 2,020 2,175:, 2,331 2,486 2,641 2,797 2,952 3,107 3,263 5.6 1,898 2.056 2,215 2,373 2,531 2,689 2,>! 47 3,006 3,164 3,322 5.7 1,932 2,093 2,254 2.415 2,576 2,737 2,898 3,059 3,220 3,381 5.8 1,966 2,110 2,294 2,458 2,621 " 2,785 2,949 3,113 3,277 3,441 _ 5.9 2,000 2,167 2,333 2,500 2,667 2,833 3,000 ';,167 3,333 3,500 w 6.0 2,034 2,203 2,373 2,542 2,719 2,881 3.051 3,220 3,390 3,559 Based on 3.54 million calories per ton of milled rice. NOTE: Values for populations and caloric levels not shown in the table may be determined by multiplying: 0.282486 times population in millions times calories.  Table 2 Milled Rice Required for the 1 April-30 November Period Under Varying Assumptions as to Population Size and Caloric Intake Per Person' Population (millions) Calories Per Person Per Day 1,200 1,500 4.5 372,203 465,254 358,305 651,356 4.6 380,475 475,593 570,712 665,831 4.7 388,746 485,932 583,119 680,305 4.8 397,017 496,271 595,525 694,780 4.9 405,288 506,610 607.932 709,254 5.0 413,559 516,949 620,339 723,729 5.1 421,831 527,288 632,746 738,203 5.2 430,102 537.627 645,153 752,678 5.3 438,373 547,966 657,559 767,153 5.4 446,644 558,305 669,966 781,627 5.5 454,915 568,644 682,373 796,102 ' Based on 3.54 million calories per ton of milled rice. KurE: Values for populations and caloric levels not shown in the table may be determined by multiplying: 68.926554 times popula- tion in millions times calories. Milled Rice Required Per Year Under Varying Assumptions as to Population Size and Caloric Intake Per Person Population (millions) Calories Per Person Per Day y 1,200 4.5 _556,780_ 695,975 835,169 4.6 569,153 711.441 853,729 4.7 581,525 x 726,907 872,288 1,017,670 4.8 593,898 742,373 890,847 1,039,322 4.9 _ 606,271 757,839 909,407 1,060,975 ~ ~.. 5.0 ~~ 618,644 773,303 927,966 1.082,627 5.1 631,017 788,771 946,525 1,104,280 5.2 643,390 804,237 965,085 - - 1,125,932 655,763 ~ 1,147,585 5.4 668,136 1,002,203 1,169, 237 5.5 1,020,763 1,190.890 Based on 3.54 million calories per ton of milled rice. NOTE: Values for populations and caloric levels not shown in the table may be determined by multiplying: 103.107345 times popula-  Table 4 Area That Mast Be Planted ToProduce the' Milled Rice Listed in Table 3 and Y a 1 ~r~ Seed for Plantinthe Next Crop' Population >ti Calories Per Person P D (millions).tn:t. Millions of Hectares 00? X1,800 3~ ~g kx 2,100 4 S d 1 0.851 4 t ,xk .. .064 3 1277'. `s 1.489 4.6: 70 ~,R1087 ~ $~~ , 1305 :` <' ;1522 0.889 1333 `f 1.556 3 4.8 . 0.9oe 1 3 A ~ r1. 62 5; :1589 4.9. ' ~?? o f 0.927. t 3.0 -' 0.946} 182 1.418 s 1.655 S.1 0.965: , x Yxe6 ~' f r p 1.447 1.688"' 5.2 0.983 s, ~ t ~~ t: :220 1.475. ' x rte. 1.721',, :. S,3 1.002, ~':# .rY 1;504 F 9 1.754 5.4 1.021. `, ~ ~ f 27 f ~' :. 32# 3r ' 1.787 5.5 1.040 ' . _ 1.300 1.560 1.820 Based on an average yield of t ton of paddy rlvx per hectare; milling conversion rate returning 0.7 ton of milled rice per ton of paddy rice, and a sealing rate of 0 07 ton-06166d per hecfa~ rq~~ i", Z4 NOT Values for required planting al'e's based on otherylei milling, and seeding rates may be'determined by summing the results of the following computations. (a) Tons of i nlled Lice desired"divided `by miiiing conversion t d 3 divided by tone of paddy rice per hectare equals hectazj~~ roduce rice for faod, '` required 01 (b) Hectares required to produce rice for food` times seeding tb; x~'~ x u divided by tons of paddy rice per hectare equals hecta E~ =Y required to produce rice for seed.,, s "' s .  Rice Seed Required To Plant Various Areas at Differing Seeding Rates Area (millions of hectares Tons of Seed Per Hectare 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.8 32,000 40,000 48,000 56,000 64,000 72,000 0.9 36,000 45,000 54,000 63,000 72,000 81,000 LO 40,000 50,000 60,000 70.000 80,000 90,000 1.1 44.000 55,000 66,000 77,000 88,000 99,000 1.2 48,000 60,000 72,000 84,000 96,000 108,000 1.3 52,000 65,000 78,000 91,000 104,000 117,000 1.4 56,000 _ 70,000 84,000 98,000 112,000 126,000 1.5 60,000 75,000 90.000 105,000 120,000 135,000 1.6 64,000 80,000 ? 96.000 112,000 128,000 144,000 1.7 _ 68,000 85,000 102,000 119,000 136,000 153,000 1.8 72,000 90,000 108,000 126,000 144,000 162,000 1.9 76,000 95.000 114,000 133,000 152,000 171,000 2.0 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 NOTE: Values for other areas and seeding rates not shown in the table may be determined by the following formula: area in hectares times (kilograms per hectare divided by 1,000).  Appendix C Derivation of Population Estimate I Jul 70-17 Apr 75 Civil war. Lon Not govern- ment against Khmer Rouge and Vietnamese forces. Estimated Demographic Impact An estimated 600,000 to 700,000 war-related deaths. Refugees flee to cities; urban population esti- mated at 4 million. High Series Medium Low Series Series Total population: UN estimate of 7,060,000 for i July 1970 used for all series. Births: UN estimated crude birth rate of 46 per 1,000 for I July 1970 accepted and decreased by 6.0 percent. Rate of decline nearly three times normal, but in line with type of decline estimated for war-ravaged areas of Bangladesh following the 1971 Bangladesh- Pakistan War. Deaths: UN estimated crude dcath rate of 18 per 1,000 for I July 1970 held constant; added 600,000 war-related deaths (prorated evenly) in the High and Medium Series, and 700,000 in the Low Series. Rates oft owth: calculated, used estimated popula- tions for beginning and end of period. Lon Not defeated; Pot Pot and Khmer Rouge gain con, trot of Kampuchea. Popul ?,()n divided into ut oan , t rural r ns. Estimated 250,000 to 500,000 flee to Vietnam. Urban population ex- pelled from cities, forcibly moved to countryside. Assumed 250,000 repatriated to Vietnam. Assumed . 500,000repa- triated to Vietnam, After subtraction of repatriates to Vietnam, assumed new people comprised the estimated 4 million in cities, old people he remainder-the 3.1 million assumed in rural areas. Old people: crude birth and death rates assumed constant at January-April 1975 level. Lon Not military personnel, civilian bureaucrats, and educated elite purged, Numerous deaths during evacuation. No provisions, food and shcl- ter inadequate. Popula- tion weak and listless; high incidence of preg- nant women deaths. Destruction of leadership clement of Kampuchcan socic!y and urban-based medical system. Kampuchcan refugees begin to flee to Vietnam. New people: assumed 90 pcrccut of ex- pected births occurred (crude birth rate as- sumed same as old people's). Assumed 75 percent of ex- pected births occurred. Assumed 50 percent of ex- pected births occurred. Assumed 7 percent of popu- lation died. Assumed 10 percent of population died. Assumed about :50.0(K) new people targeted for e.tecution not including families: 200,(00 militant; 30,000 civil servants. 20,0(W) of the educated, particu- lar)r teachers, (7f' 230.000:. 0 percent died of hunger and disease, 50 percent of remaining executed in Medium and Low Series and SI) percent of that number executed in High Series. Assumed Assumed 50,000 executed. 25,000 executed. Assumed 300h7fled to l` iernam during 1475-79 from new people  Executions begin. Assumed Assumed 50,000 executed. 25,000 executed, Kampuchean refugees begin to flee to Vietnam. Assumed 30,0(X1 fled to Vietnam during 1973-79 jrom new people population. Assumed 3,000 refugees to Vietnam. 1 Jul 75-1 Jan 76 Second forced displacement, Famine occurs in some Old people: assumed 30-percent drop in crude birth included both old and new areas; no medical care; rate. Assumed crude death rate rose to 25 people. incidence of malaria, per 1,000 (UN estimated 1950-55 level). dysentery, and other dis- easesincreasing. Ex- tremely hard work re- quired by all. New people: assumed same number died in this period as died in previous period. Crude birth rate 50 percent of old people's rate. Assumed 20,000 new peo- plef7ed to Thai- land between July 1975 and January 1979. Refugee flight continues to Vietnam and begins to Thailand. Assumed 5,000 refugees to Thai camps. Assumed 5,000 refugees to Vietnam. Assumed 10,000 cxccutcd. Assumed 55,000 new people- 21.000 to camps. 8,000 illegals, and 26,000 died in attempt fled to Thailand between July 1973 and January 1979. Assumed 5,000 to Thai camps, 5,000 illegals, 10,000 died in attempt. Old people: crude birth and death rates from previous period remain constant. New people: crude birth rate declines a further 33 percent. Crude death Assumed 4 percent of population rate double died, old people's rate, about 2.5 percent of population died. Assumed I Assumed 3,000 refugees to Thai 3,000 rcfu- camps, 2,000 illegals, 3,000 died gees to Thai in aucmpt to escape. camps. Ass?:mcd 5,000 refu- gees to Vietnam. Meager rice harvest. Khmer Food rations above star- Rou^c firmly in control of vation level and most population. people sheltered. Unre- Icntiug hard work on in- adequate diet and lack of basic medical care, dis- ease spreads among weakened populace. Famine again occurs in some areas: disease spreads among total population. Assumed 10,000 cxccutcd. Old people: crude birth rate declines 6 percent. ('r_,Ic death rate remains constant. Crude death Assumed 4 percent of popula- rate remains tion died. constant. Assumed 3,000 refu- gees to Thai camps. Assumed 3,000 refugees to Thai camps, 1,000 illegals, 3,000 died in attempt to escape.  ncrable dead. Survivors learning to live under conditions, although still Crude death Assumed 4 percent of popula- rate remains tion died. constant. I Jul 76-1 Jan 77 Food again in short supply. Famine again occurs in .Yd people.- crude birth rate declines 6 percent. Crude some areas; disease death idle remains constant. spreads among total population. Refugee flight continues. Assumed 3,000 refu- gees to Thai camps. Assumed 3,000 refugees to Thai camps, 2,000 illegals, 3,000 died in attempt to escape. Assumed 5,000 refu- gees to Vietnam. More executions. Assumed 10,000 executed. Refugee flight continues. Assumed 3,000 refu- gees to Thai camps. Assumed 3,000 refugees to Thai camps, 1,000 illegals, 3,000 died in attempt to escape. Assumed 5,000 rcfu- gees to Vietnam. Final executions. Assumed 5,000 executed. Khmer Rouge still in Food remains in short Old people.: crude birth and death rates remain control, supply. Among the new constant for each half-year of the period. people, the weak and vul- On 7 January 1979 Phnom Pcnh fell to Vietnamese troops. Heng Samrin in- stalled as head of new government. New people: crude birth rates remain constant for each half-year of the period. Crude death About 2.5 percent of population rate remains constant for each half-year period. died during each half-year period. Refugee flight continues. As.,umed for Assumed for each successive each half-year: 2,500 refugees, 2,500 successive died in attempt, and no illegals. half year pe- riod: 3.000, Assumed for 2,000, 2,000, each and 2,000 ref- successive ugees to Thai half-year of camps. the period: 4,000, 4,000, 3,000, and 1,000 refu- gccs to Vietnam. Harsh labor require- ments and repressive control measures of Pol Pot regime lifted, but new government unable to supply food, shelter, clothing, or health care. In Pol Pot-controlled areas, general depriva- tion and strict control still enforced. Physical security for civilian pop- ulation poor as opposing forces right for dominance. Assumed crude birth rate for old people declined by 6 percent while rate for new people increases by 6 percent. Assumed about 2.0 percent of total population died during period.  people, the wet, and vul- nerable dead. Survivors learning to live under conditions, although still in dire straits. On 7 January 1979 Phnom Harsh labor require- Penh fell to Vietnamese ments and repressive troops. Heng Samrin in- control measures of Pol stalled as head of new Pot regime lifted, but government. new government unable to supply food, shelter, clothing, or health care. ttgnting resumea oetween Heng Samrin/Vietnamese and Pol Pot forces. In Poi Pot-controlled areas, general depriva- tion and strict control still enforced. Physical security for civilian pop- ulation poor as opposing forces fight for dominance. Food for civilians, Viet- namese, and Pol Pot forces in short supply. Meager harvest. Famine becomes wide- spread by end of October. International relief effort International relief ef- started. fort not able to alleviate conditions. Refugees from every part of country join flight. New people: crude birth rates remain constant for each half-year of the period. Crude death About 2.5 percent of population rate remains died during each half-year constant for period. each half-year period. Assumed for Assumed for each successive each half-year: 2,500 -eeugees, 2,500 successive died in attempt, and no illegals. half-year pe- riod: 3,000, Assumed for 2,000, 2,000, each and 2,000 ref- successive ugees to Thai half-yea- of camps. the period: 4,000, 4,000, 3,000, and 1,000 refu- gees to Vietnam. Assumed crude birth rate for old people declined by 6 percent while rate for new people increases by 6 percent. Assumed about 2.0 percent of total population died during period. Assumed 17,000 refugees to Thai camps. Assumed 17,000 refu- gees to Thai camps and an additional 40,000 in Thailand but not in camps. Assumed crude birth rate of 10 per 1,000 for total population. Assumed 400,000 refugees to Thai camps. Assumed 40,000 re"a- gecs from pre- vious period returned to Kampuchea. Assumed 500,000 new refugees to Thai camps.