INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005284820
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: June 24, 2015
• Document Release Date: May 27, 2011
• Case Number: F-2008-00831
• Publication Date: March 12, 1998

-,)C? LC ..1 , 9r- 93
Articles
International Environmental Intelligence Brief
Kyoto Participants Coming
Contents
Reductions
Issue 98/3 12 March 1998
to Grips on Emissions
Japan Faces Obstacles to Meeting Greenhouse Gas Cuts
Set in Kyoto
Environmental Outlook for Cambodia's Tonle San
Latin America Inching Forward on Sustainable Development
South America: Turning to US as Costs from El Nino Mount
DCI Environmental Center
Botswana: Balancing Development and Environmental
Calendar
APPROVED FOR RELEASEL
DATE: 17-May-2011
 Kyoto Participants Coming to Grips on
Emissions Reductions
Developed and developing countries are
advancing proposals for curbing carbon
emissions under the protocol negotiated
at Kyoto in December. EU environment
and transport ministers this month will meet
to discuss a British proposal fora pilot
program to introduce cleaner vehicles in
20 EU cities.
Energy and transport ministers will meet in
April to identify ways to achieve emissions
cuts. Press reports say British Chancellor
Brown will propose a framework for taxing
energy products.
? Portugal is examining substitution
of natural gas for coal in its electric
utility sector, industrial energy
conservation, and household energy
savings
Some developing countries-such as
Argentina, Mexico, and Singapore-have
expressed a willingness to assume voluntary
targets but remain opposed to binding ones.
gentina, which in
November will host the next major climate
negotiations, is trying to revive a
provision-which failed in Kyoto to
encourage developing countries to adopt
voluntary targets
Mexico
is interested in voluntary cuts, made easier
by emissions trading and joint implementa-
tion. As an oil exporter, Mexico says it will
have to reduce emissions growth gradually
by substituting natural gas for oil, planting
forests, improving energy efficiency, and
undertaking renewable energy projects.
? Sin a or
wants to decouple emissions growth
from GDP growth and is interested in
joint ventures in climate-related
technologies.
Other developing countries have not
volunteered cuts but are interested in the
Clean Development Mechanism-a vehicle
for, private sector investment in emissions-
reducing projects. Thailand is looking to
the CDMfor help in shifting to natural
gas, a pilot solar power program, and
reforestation. Brazil's environment
minister is eager for an early meeting with
US officials to work out operational details
of the CDM, which represents a threat to
the Foreign Ministry's traditional control
over climate change issues
 Japan Faces Obstacles to Meeting
Greenhouse Gas Cuts Set in Kyoto
Tokyo has begun drafting legislation to and the government has begun
encourage domestic energy savings, but a exploring emissions trading schemes
number of problems are likeI to delay with Russia.
progress. increasing
local opposition is jeopardizing plans to
activate 20 new nuclear power plants-a
centerpiece of Tokyo's initial emission
reduction planning-and that key industries
are resisting measures that they see as
threats to their competitiveness.
Nonetheless, Tokyo will find it difficult
to reverse the steady pace of deforestation
and lacks experience in emissions trading.
Japanese officials are looking to the
US-proposed emissions umbrella group
meeting for guidance in this area
? Tokyo press reports say the
semiconductor industry is refusing
to cooperate with Trade Ministry
proposals to set targets for the
reduction of fluorocarbons.
? Traditional bureaucratic turf battles
are complicating the drafting of
legislation as well; MITI and the
Environment Agency-the two lead
actors on environmental issues-are at
odds over how to secure industry
compliance with some cuts, according
to press reports.
Tokyo instead is counting heavily on
emissions trading and forest management
to meet its Kyoto targets
Such programs are attractive
because they help strengthen Japan's ties to
countries that are important to its foreign
policy agenda and promote Japanese
business interests.
? MITI has set aside $20 million to
encourage joint implementation
projects in Russia and Southeast Asia,
 ecZ
Environmental Outlook for Cambodia's
Tonle Sap
Tonle Sap is in trouble but disagree on the
timeframe involved. The British NGO
Global Witness, for example, says continued
logging in Cambodia at 1.5 million cubic
meters per year-the rate in the early
1990s-would result in the total silting up
of Tonle Sap by 2023.
Cambodian Government officials say
that the danger is less immediate and
that there is still time to save the lake.
Tonle Sap would not
disappear completely but that it faces
severe environmental damage and a
fate similar to the Aral Sea.
Slow progress by the Mekong River
Commission in the collection of river flow
data and modeling is hampering analysis of
the effects on Tonle Sap of deforestation in
Cambodia and of proposed numerous
hydroelectric dams on the Mekong and its
tributaries,
Some foreign experts have
expressed concern that the proposed dams
on the Mekong will hasten Tonle Sap's
decline.
Severe environmental degradation of Tonle
Sap could have negative consequences for
Cambodia and Vietnam because the lake is
the Mekong's primary natural regulator and
plays a major role in the re ion's agricultural
and fisheries production
Tonle Sap accounts directly
or indirectly for more than 75 percent of the
protein consumption in Cambodia, and
changes in its composition could destroy
fish spawning areas, migration patterns, and
sources of nutrients with potential negative
effects on important Vietnamese fishing
grounds in the Mekong delta.
? During the wet months, the lake swells
from about 2,600 to about 10,500
square km and doubles its depth, a
process that acts as a natural flood
stabilizer and provides an important
source of water for the Mekong and its
tributaries during the subsequent dry
months,
In addition, Mekong River water
flowing into Tonle Sap helps increase
the agricultural productivity of
Cambodian soil---otherwise the least
fertile in tropical Asia
More than 4 million people (about 40 per-
cent of Cambodia's population)-largely
rice farmers and fishermen-live in the
seven provinces that surround Tonle Sap
and would be affected by environmental.
damage to this ecosystem. Rice is
Cambodia's most important crop, with
cultivation concentrated around Tonle Sap
and the upper reaches of the Mekong delta.
 Sec
any
natural resource development in Cambodia
that reduces the quantity or quality of the
Mekong-Bassac River flow would be of
grave concern to Vietnam. In addition,
resource management of the Mekong could
be the source of growing friction among the
riparian states; the work of MRC has
suffered from differences in interest between
northern and southern Mekong states and
China's lack of participation
? Laos and Thailand, for example, give
top priority to water quantity and dam-
building, while Vietnam-last in line,
water-wise-focuses on water quality
and remains skeptical about dam-
building efforts.
? Chinese membership and participation
in MRC is vital, particularly because
Chinese dam construction plans will
have direct effects on water levels in
Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and
Vietnam.
 ' The Mekong River Basij'
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0 50 100 150 MO.
 Latin America Inching Forward on
Sustainable Development Goals
As follow-up to. the 1994 Summit of the
Americas, Latin America has taken
important steps on sustainable develop-
ment issues. Governments have created
networks to share data between the scientific
and policy communities and have launched
projects to promote renewable energy.
? Brazil has instituted a program that
requires environmental impact studies
for some federal loans and has enacted
a bill that sets fines for environmental
crimes.
? Mexico has launched an ambitious
program to plant 1.7 billion trees by
2000, and Chile recently began a
$600 million pollution-control project
for Santiago.
Politics Complicate Reform Efforts
A widespread perception that
environmentalism slows economic
development has tempered progress.
Prodevelopment politicians and interest
groups play to nationalist sentiment by
charging that US environmental restrictions
on trade are a cover for protectionism that
slows economic growth in the developing
world, according to press reports.
? Despite paying lipservice to ecological
concerns, most politicians in Venezuela
and Chile-where extractive industries
account for 80 percent of export
earnings-are reluctant to adopt more
rigorous environmental regulations.
90 percent of fines levied.
? Weak institutions also are slowing
progress-Colombia has had four
environment ministers in four
years, and press reports say Brazil's
Environment Institute is so under-
staffed that it is unable to collect about
market for environmental goods and
services could approach $12 billion by
Most South American governments, eager to
cooperate with Washington, are looking to
move forward this year on climate change-
issues such as joint implementation and
emissions trading. The Latin American
technologies to local conditions.
but US industry faces stiff
competition from European and Japanese
firms, which often have access to
preferential credit and skillfully adapt their
 Some Market Reforms Trigger Environmental ImprovemenI
jEr
Recent legislation in Mexico has tightened environmental standards
despite slow progress under NAPTA and little improvement in
enforcment. Grassroots activism continues to grow, and local NGOs have
successfully challenged Mexico City's nonadherence to regulations.
Privatized railroads are drawing commercial cargo business away from
the high-polluting trucking industry.
Gulf of Mexico
d "Dominlan
Aopuhtla
Partial liberalization of Ecuador's energy sector
has attracted foreign firms in the oil industry,
many of which--in contrast to the cash-strapped
state firm Petroecuador-have employed modern
environmental technologies and have actively
pursued a dialogue with the local community
and NGOs.
Peru last year directed the owners of the
privatized La Oroya smelter complex to undertake
$330 million in upgrades over a 10-year period
to meet long-neglected environmental regulations.
Lima pledged $80 million from the sale of
government mining assets for environmental
cleanup.
Idomestic and foreign firms
in Chile upgraded their environmental technologies
in anticipation of NAFTA accession in 1995 but scaled
back their efforts as prospects for accession waned.
Chile last year ratified an agreement with Canada
that requires it to upgrade and enforce its domestic
environmental legislation during the next two years.
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The Cardoso administration last year
ordered buyers of the firm CVRD-the
world's third-largest mining conglomerate--
to adhere to federal and state environmental
regulations. State-owned industries long
have been considered among Brazil's
worst environmental offenders.
South
Atlantic
Ocean
 South America: Turning to US as Costs
From El Nino Mount
El Nino-induced weather problems are the
most severe in Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador,
and Peru
The impact of drought so far has been
primarily on cash crops-most notably
coffee, Colombia's second-largest export
earner-but floods have cost several
hundred lives throughout the region since
October, more than 400,000 people have had
to be evacuated, and numerous homes,
roads, bridges, and thousands of hectares of
crops have been destroyed
? Peru reports 125,000 homes and
60,000 hectares of crops damaged or
destroyed as well as extensive damage
to transportation infrastructure in 10 of
its 24 departments.
? Ecuador estimates $200 million
in lost agricultural output and
$400 million in damage to roads since
Forewarning of El Niflo's potential intensity
allowed international coordination of aid and
assistance efforts ranging from $500 million
in loans from the World Bank and Inter-
American Development Bank to smaller
amounts from the EU, the Red Cross, and
Spain. Nevertheless, the event has outpaced
the capacity of local governments and NGOs
to respond.
? NGOs in Peru have requested
immediate aid
any assistance the US can provide,
including heavy equipment to help
with road systems and medical
supplies to deal with disease out-
breaks,
? Bolivia may request large-scale
assistance-an estimated 300,000
farmers have lost more than 50 percent
of their subsistence crops to drought,
and flooding has caused an additional
90,000 hectares of crop damage.
for temporary shelter operations, and
Ecuadorian officials have requested
 Botswana: Balancing Development and
Environmental Protection
Botswana is dealing with a broad range of
environmental problems common to other
semi-arid south African countries, including
erratic rainfall, rangeland degradation,
and desertification. Under its National
Conservation Strategy and National
Development Plans, Gaborone is trying to
integrate sustainable development of the
country's resources with protection of the
environment.
Botswana
has adequate legislation to address
environmental protection but lacks
the institutional capacity to enforce
existing laws.
The government is eager to maintain its
good international reputation as a wildlife-
friendly nation-almost 20 percent of the
country is designated as national parks or
wildlife areas-but Gaborone's main
priority is to protect its cattle,
Last year, Botswana had to
destroy more than 300,000 cattle to stop an
outbreak of cattle lung disease
? A reinfection of Botswana's herds this
year or next would be viewed by the
ruling party as a major political
liability in the runup to the 1999
presidential and parliamentary
elections.
The controversy between cattle and wildlife
is demonstrated most clearly in Botswana's
dispute with Namibia and with NGOs who
oppose the so-called veterinary control
fences that Gaborone has been building
in recent years along its border in the
ecologically sensitive Okavango Delta-one
of the world's largest inland wetlands-to
protect its cattle from disease. Domestic
and international opponents claim that the
fences severely impede the area's herds of
migratory elephants, giraffes, zebras,
wildebeest, and other animals in their
seasonal search for water and grazing lands,
One international NGO predicts that
elephant herds could decline by 40 to
80 percent if their seasonal migrations
continue to be disrupted, and others
warn that increased cattle grazing in the
delta area is putting additional pressure
on local wildlife.
? The government wants a compromise
with-Namibia and is considering
proposals by Windhoek, NGOs, and
eco-tour operators that it realign and
dismantle the fence in some areas or
place openings along key migratory
Also at issue in the Okavango Delta is a plan
by Namibia to build a 250-kilometer
pipeline to draw up to 20 million cubic
meters of water from the Okavango River
that will reduce the amount of water flowing
into the Delta. Tour operators and
conservationists argue that the Rundu-
Grootfontein pipeline will adversely affect
the fragile wetland ecology of the Delta and
increase the number of conflicting demands
on the area's already scarce water resources.
 ? The pipeline project, however, needs
the approval of regional governments
and probably will be delayed until
several conditions are met. The 1994
OKACOM Agreement-created by the
Okavango Commission, comprising
Angola, Botswana, and Namibia, and
funded by the UN Development
Program-requires that all projects
affecting the Okavango basin complete
Environmental Impact Assessments
and have the consent of all parties in
order to proceed.
under the govern-
ment's Eighth National Development Plan
(NDP8) announced last year, Gaborone
plans to expand its lucrative eco-tourism
sector while at the same time refocusing
agricultural and land use policies to improve
sustainable income in rural communities,
increase anti-poaching measures, and
address overgrazing and soil degradation.
? Tourism is one of Botswana's fastest
growing sectors, contributing roughly
16 percent of GDP, according to open
sources, with the Okavango Delta and
wildlife safaris being the country's
biggest draws for foreign visitors.
Many international environmental agencies
and NGOs, including the UN Environment
Program, the World Wildlife Fund for
Nature, and Conservation International, are
helping Botswana improve its capacity to
implement conservation measures and
manage its natural resources. In 1997 the
EU launched a multimillion dollar Tourism
Development Programme in Botswana and
is assisting the local Okavango Wildlife
Society in it efforts to monitor wildlife and
promote conservation programs in the delta.
Botswana actively participates in
regional environmental initiatives such as
the SADC mining program that promotes
region-wide standards of environmental
protection and that is preparing a
regulatory framework for mining
operations, according to press reports.
Botswana is a signatory to several
international environmental treaties,
including the Convention on International
Trade in Endangered Species, the
Ramsar Convention on Wetlands, and the
UN Convention to Combat Desertification;
the Kalahari Desert covers roughly
84 percent of the country.
 Selected International Environment-Related Meetings
Date
Forum
Venue
23 March
EU Environment Ministers Meeting
Brussels
4-5 April
G-8 Environment Ministers Meeting
Leeds
13-24 April
Sixth Session of the UN Commission on
New York
Sustainable Development. Focus on Water
18-19 April
Summit of the Americas
Santiago
4-15 May 1998
Conference of Parties to the
Bratislava
Convention on Biodiversity
15-17 May
G-8 Summit
Birmingham
18-22 May
Eighth Meeting of Parties to the UN
New York
Convention on the Law of the Sea
22 May-30 September
1998 Lisbon World Exposition (EXPO `98)
Lisbon
Theme: The Oceans, a Heritage for
the Future.
6-12 June
Subsidiary Bodies of the Climate
Change Convention
23-25 June
Fourth Environment For Europe Ministerial
Aarhus
30 June
First Global POPs Negotiating Session
Geneva
July
Independent World Commission
Lisbon
on Oceans
29 November-12 December
Second Conference of Parties to the
Dakar
Convention to Combat Desertification
1-3 September
APEC Senior Officials Meeting on Environment
Singapore
November
Tenth Conference of Parties to the
Cairo
Montreal Protocol
2-13 November
Fourth Conference of Parties to the
Buenos Aires
Climate Change Change Convention