INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005284807
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: June 24, 2015
• Document Release Date: May 27, 2011
• Case Number: F-2008-00831
• Publication Date: October 29, 1997

Lw
011'r
sr$ ~c 9 -
nr moo ?to ?ON w.siwnwwww .wrw.w-
In ernational Environmental Intelligence Brief
Contents
Articles
29 October 1997
Concerns
El Nino's Potential Impact on Stability in South America~
Southern Africa Bracing for El Nino
Hazardous Radioactive Waste Disposal Practices in FSU
Golan Water Valuable to Israel
Desertification Conference Makes Little Headwa
Colombia's Environmental Re ime Weak
French Nuclear Industry Suffers Another Setbac
Calendar
APPROVED FOR RELEASEL
DATE: 17-May-2011
Worsening ]Drought in Indonesia Heightens Instability
Page
1
(b)(1)
(b)(3)
 Worsening Drought in Indonesia
Heightens Instability Concerns
US weather experts predict an unusually
severe El Nino effect could deprive most of
Indonesia of significant rainfall during the
critical monsoon period that normally runs
from late this month through next March.
The country is suffering from its worst
drought in 50 years, with many regions
reporting 25- to 50-percent less rainfall than
average over the past six months.
-At least 416 people have died in Irian
Jaya as a result of the drought,
according to press reports, and nearly
90,000 face serious food shortages
exacerbated by logistic difficulties
associated with distribution of supplies
to remote areas.
Indonesia will
have to import about 9 million tons of
grain-nearly twice its average annual grain
imports of the past five years--to maintain a
constant level of consumption next year.
Jakarta has sufficient foreign exchange
reserves-more than $20 billion-to finance
the projected increase, but drought-induced
price hikes and the ongoing currency crisis in
the region will prompt double-digit inflation
by early next year, according to economic
forecasters.
Growing public anger over the government's
ineffective response to the drought's worst
effects could embarrass President Soeharto
in the runup to his expected nomination to a
seventh term next March.
the poor are
increasingly upset about rising food prices,
and the media report Muslim leaders have
warned that, the current environmental and
economic crises constitute a divine warning.
 Drought Creating Food Shortages
Wakes
See
Severe food
shortages reported
JAKARTA Java Sea
'.9(h90Poa
Philippine Sea
Severe food
shortages reported
Australia
IRIAN
'JAYA
Pap.
N.
Gui.
 China
Percentage of Normal Precipitation,
May-September 1997
i?.: ai,atppa,,'
Sew
Oca.ur
Australia
y 0.
SUMATRA
KAL1A4AN6
N,
SULAWESI
ndo.nes
rlr AKARTA
4..A
JAVA
Percent
- Less than 25
[= 25 to 50
=More than 75
500 Wiometers
0 500 Miles
. TIMOR
Percentage of Normal Precipitation, September 1997
i i
111111F! ___ '10
1 i IN,
JAKARTA Ind r e s i a
JAVA
TIMOR
IRIAN
JAYA
i. J
44
Unc i~LCrl 744371000522) 10-97
 El Nrno's Potential Impact on Stability in
South America
US weather experts are not able to predict
the magnitude of this year's El Nino, but
most South American governments have laid
the political and economic groundwork to
respond to and mitigate potential disaster.
Peru and Ecuador, likely to be hardest hit
because of geography, were quick to declare
emergencies and begin contingency planning
in mid-July. Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and
Venezuela have taken measures-such as
developing plans to speed or delay
harvests-to minimize El Niflo's effects on -
agricultural production.
- Regional governments and
international lending institutions
already have set aside relief funds
equal to the estimated damage of the
last major El Nino in 1982.
El Nino's impact alone is unlikely to cause
political or economic instability, but it could
amplify the problems of governments already
besieged by other problems. Most notably,
Ecuador's. lameduck administration faces -
mounting pressure from indigenous groups
for failing to address their economic
concerns, and Colombia's scandal-plagued
administration has shown itself incapable of
protecting its citizens from insurgent and
paramilitary attacks.
-- Bolivia's new coalition, meanwhile,
appears slow to grasp the potential
impact of the phenomenon; poor
planning, combined with the country's
outdated transportation infrastructure,
could severely test La Paz's ability to
deliver relief supplies.
- Fujimori, on the other hand, is.
advertising the efforts his government
is taking in advance of a possible
reelection bid in 2000.
Large-scale increased government spending
on relief could strain fiscal budgets and
reduce incumbents' ability to fund popular
programs during coming reelection
campaigns-particularly in Colombia,
Ecuador, and Peru. Nevertheless, foreign
reserves are at or near record levels
throughout the region-providing flexibility
to temporarily set up agricultural imports
without encountering balance-of-payments
problems.
 Southern Africa Bracing for El Nina
Drought conditions caused by the current
El Niflo event ate likely to slow GDP growth
in southern Africa by 1 to 2 percentage
points next year,
While early warning and
recent flooding will blunt the drought's
impact, most governments are bracing for a
20- to 40-percent decline in agricultural
output.
- Mozambique, Malawi, and
Angola-the countries most
dependent on subsistence
agriculture-are the most likely
to turn to international donors
for additional food aid to avert
starvation, according to the
Southern African Development
Community Food Security Unit.
- Zimbabwe and, to a lesser extent,
Zambia have some grain stockpiled
and viable commercial farming
sectors that will help mitigate
against famine
temperatures in
southern Africa are already above
normal ranges. Recent academic
research suggests drought conditions
will peak in southern Angola in early
January, followed by movement of the
core area to Botswana, northern.
Zimbabwe, southern Zambia, northwest
Mozambique, and, finally southern
Malawi by mid-to-late fall.
Budget constraints in the region's
largest economies-South Africa and
Zimbabwe-are likely to limit local
relief efforts and could increase internal
political tensions.
Pretoria has already warned farmers to adjust
sowing plans and herd sizes because, unlike
during previous droughts, the government
will not be able to provide cash relief.
- Harare announced plans to
establish a $129 million relief
fund
Without a sizable injection of funds,
drought conditions will spur regional
migration, putting pressure on urban
unemployment and spreading any food
crisis across borders. El Nino effects also
will reduce real wages by raising food costs,
In South Africa, drought is
likely to harden organized labor's
opposition to the ANC's market-
oriented economic strategy by
placing Pretoria's growth and
employment targets for next year
out of reach, according to press
reports.
- Zimbabwe's President Mugabe,
who already is under fire for
mismanaging low-cost housing
and veterans' pension funds, could
face additional unrest similar to
 that which occurred after the 1995
El Nino-if his government does
not meet wage demands and
imposes a drought levy.
Drought will fuel intraregional competition
for scarce water resources.
Namibia plans to divert
water from the Okavango River in the event
of a prolonged dry spell-a move that
conservationists claim will damage the
pristine Okavango delta and Botswana's -
most diverse wildlife refuge.
- Botswana plans to tap the Zambezi
River, creating problems down-
stream for Zambia and Zimbabwe.
 Southern Africa:
Threats to the Okavango
Conservationists worry that Namibia's modest plan to siphon 20 million
of the 10 billion cubic meters flowing through the Okavango delta could
have dWider environmental impact on the world's largest oasis. The
director of Botswana University's Okavango Research Center is
concerned the diversion could eliminate flood plains covering 90 square
miles of the 5,800-square-mile delta. Large animals, such as elephants,
would he forced to migrate, adding to their overpopulation in other parts
of the country
Concerned by the extensive damage elephant herds cause to
grasslands, Gaborone successfully pushed for an exemption to the
Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species ban
on elephant culling and ivory trade.
Moreover, experts are skeptical that Namibia will limit its outtake
to 20 million cubic meters annually. A director of the Kalahari
Conservation Society publicly noted the pipeline will have to operate
full time, not just during peak drought periods, to recoup
construction costs.
- Lowering the force of the river will prevent nutrients
from reaching the edges of the delta and could cause
silting, according to Botswana's Director of Wildlife
and National Parks.
 Hazardous Radioactive Waste Disposal
Practices in FSU
Most countries of the former Soviet Union..
have regulations and systems in place for
disposing of radioactive material, but the
material is rarely monitored because of its
pervasive use in education, industry, and
medicine. The absence of monitoring has led
to the common practice of dumping
radioactive material in trash bins, vacant lots,
and landfills.
Standardized facilities for disposal of radio-
active material-RADON( facilities-are
facing problems because of budget shortfalls
and the sheer magnitude of radiation
sources-press reports estimate 400,000.
According to press reports, enterprises that
normally would use RADON facilities cannot
pay the hefty sums these facilities charge and
are resorting to creating their own disposal
sites.
- From 1982 to 1992, more than
800 dumped radiation sources were
detected within Moscow.
Several cases of radiation poisoning-most
recently in Georgia-have involved
improperly disposed radiation sources.
The improper disposal of radioactive
materials could contaminate commercial
goods, posing a health risk to consumers.
Several shipments of contaminated scrap iron
from decommissioned nuclear-related
facilities have been stopped at the Italian
border, according to press reports; the metal
was to be recycled into other products.
 Georgian Radiation Casualtie
 Golan Water Valuable to Israel
Security remains Israel's prime reason
for keeping the Golan Heights, but an
impending water shortage in Israel is
increasing the territory's value. Israel
consumes about 2 billion cubic meters of
water annually, of which 300 million cubic
- With Israel's domestic supply of fresh
water averaging only 1.8 billion cubic
meters per year, this rate of water
consumption is irreversibly harming
the country's acquifers, according to
academic studies of declining water
tables and increasing salinity.
Meeting Israel's water needs with imports
or water from desalinization and sewage
treatment plants would be expensive,
take time, and create additional security
vulnerabilities., Even if neighboring countries
would sell water, Israel would avoid relying
on unpredictable foreign suppliers who could
turn off the taps for political reasons.
Academic studies estimate providing
150 million cubic meters annually from
desalinized seawater or treated sewage
would cost about $175 million; in addition,
several billion dollars would be needed to
build new treatment facilities. The Israeli
Government would seek Washington's
assistance in financing the construction of
such plants.
If the government allows the state water
monopoly to raise prices, an academic study
suggests households and industry would be
willing to pay up to 14 times more for water
than the farm sector. Farmers are likely to
first reduce production of crops that use
significant amounts of irrigation water, such
as bananas, citrus, and cotton; these crops
consume more than one-fourth of Israel's
water but add only about $400 million to the
$100 billion economy.
lead to larger food imports.
-- Israel has made considerable strides
in implementing water-conserving
technologies, but losing access to
Golan water would accelerate the
decline in Israel's farming sector and
 Israel: Nearing Limits of Its Water Supply
Israel's per capita
supply of fresh
water is among the
lowest in the
region ...
Thousand cubic
meters per year
Egypt
Israel
Jordan
Lebanon
Saudi Arabia
Syria
Turkey
us
. and the Lebanon, Syria,
Golan Heights ' and Jordan
13
provides a significant
share of water Golan
consumption. Heights
Percent ' 18
Israeli farms use
the lion's share
of Israel's fresh
water...
Percent
7
Households
... and would
provide the cushion
if Israel loses part
of the Golan's water.
300 Industry
0 1990 91 92 93 94 95
9,418
T*
Boundary
representation
Is not necessarily
authoritative.
0 6 Kilometers
0 6 Mites
? e1 ) GOLAN HEIGHTS'
Agriculture / (Israeli occupied)
65 < S
i ;::
~
y
r