INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005284805
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: June 24, 2015
• Document Release Date: May 27, 2011
• Case Number: F-2008-00831
• Publication Date: October 30, 1998

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International Environmental Intelligence Brief
Contents
Special Edition for Climate Change COP-4
Page
EU Seeks US Gesture on Climate Change
Brazil's Economic Crisis Reinforces Climate Change Position)
India Will Play Tough at Climate Change Conference
Russia Thumbs Up for Emissions Trading
Sub-Saharan Leaders See Vulnerabilities to Climate Chance
Calendar
Turkey-Syria: Strains Over Water Continue
(b)(1)
(b)(3)
APPROVED FOR RELEASEL
DATE: 17-May-2011
 China Will Stand Firm at Buenos Aires
Beijing will continue to oppose voluntary targets
for reducing greenhouse gas emissions-
including Argentina's proposal of an emissions
growth target-and to insist on caps on
flexibility mechanisms such as emissions
trading.
Hiding behind 0-77 opposition, China
is resisting voluntary targets out of
concern that they could become
mandatory and hinder economic
growth,
Beijing's opposition to caps reflects its
long-held position that the
industrialized countries are responsible
for global warming and should bear the
chief burden for reducing greenhouse
gas emissions.
Coal burning remains China's main source
of carbon dioxide, but government
encouragement of automobile usage may
increase its contribution. Beijing's
municipal government this month set a
precedent by banning bicycle traffic on a
busy street to expedite the flow of
automobile traf c, according to a Western
press report
The Chinese will highlight their pursuit of other
policies that will result in a net reduction of
emissions. Beijing will tout its substantial
increase in investments in clean energy sources
such as hydropower and nuclear power and its
consideration of increased use of natural gas,
 EU Seeks US Gesture on Climate Change
EU member states and the European
Commission at the UN climate change
conference in Buenos Aires next week will seek
indications that the US will take domestic steps
toward meeting its emissions reduction targets.
the Europeans are
concerned that their -efforts to meet
targets-such as the British and
German Governments' decisions to
increase energy taxes-will give US
businesses an unfair advantage.
the Union understands US
policy constraints and recognizes that
US participation is vital to
international environmental efforts.
At Buenos Aires, the EU will propose that the
action plans for implementing flexibility
mechanisms emphasize that they supplement
domestic efforts toward meeting emissions
reduction targets. If faced with defeat on
quantitative trading caps, the Union will suggest
qualitative caps instead.
- Member states repeatedly have
asserted that strict monitoring and
verification regimes must accompany
any plans for emissions trading,
particularly if trading is not capped,
commitments.
The EU will
emphasize that targets must be realistic-and
that developed countries must lead the way by
progressing toward meeting their own Kyoto
Internal divisions among EU members, the
inexperienced Austrian EU presidency, and the
newness of Germany's Government will limit
EU effectiveness at the bargaining table. Union
ministers meeting this month were unable to
agree on quantitative caps, and several members
that strongly support caps-notably Germany
and Austria-already have conceded that they
are likely to miss their 2012 emissions targets by
a wide margin
- Austrian Environment Minister
Bartenstein this month told journalists
that "the EU may have been on the
defensive too long" on flexibility
mechanisms, noting that EU members
"regard them as essential and will use
them."
 Brazil's Economic Crisis Reinforces
Climate Change Position
Brazil's delegation to the Fourth Conference of
Parties to the UN Framework Convention on
Climate Change will use the economic crisis to
reinforce its argument that developing countries
should be allowed to grow economically while
developed countries take the first steDs to meet-
1992 Rio Convention standards
President Cardoso last month announced deep
budget cuts totaling $5 billion, more than 20
percent of which is aimed at the Ministry of the
Environment and the Brazilian Institute for
Environmental Affairs. According to press
reports, the cuts have terminated most
environmental monitoring operations in the
Amazon-a particularly dangerous development
this year because a widespread El Nino-
induced drought has caused intense fires
throughout Brazil's northeast.
- The cuts have halted operations in the
Amazon that seize illegally logged
timber and combat wildlife trafficking
during October and November, when
the illegal transport is the greatest.
 India will Play Tough at Climate Change
Conference
Climate change and other global environmental
issues are low-priority concerns for India's key
decision makers. Prime Minister Vajpayee in
March restated India's standard line that New
Delhi will concentrate on economic growth and
eliminating poverty and let countries that create
global warming-the West-pay to fix it.
- He says India will use scarce
environmental resources to solve local
problems such as poor air and water
quality, deforestation, and vanishing
habitat for biological resources.
India did not attend the pre-Buenos Aires
ministerial in Tokyo last month-despite
assurances to the contrary just as it did not
attend the pre-Kyoto ministerial last year. The
Indians did participate this summer in lower-
level Climate Change meetings in Bonn and this
month in Buenos Aires.
Indian
negotiators opposed consideration of
voluntary commitments for developing
countries to reduce carbon emissions
while insisting that developed countries
comply with their own commitments.
-- In addition, they criticized the flexibility
mechanisms-measures such as carbon
trading that allow countries to work
jointly to reduce global emissions-on
the grounds that no country has clear
title to emissions and that the
mechanisms should focus on fostering
sustainable development, not achieving
cost-effectiveness.
Indian negotiators suggest a potential opening
for more positive talks would be stressing the
importance of technology transfer. India has
long held that developed countries have a duty
to facilitate developing country access to new
technologies.
benefits.
- New Delhi could budge on its
opposition to environmental controls if
it receives substantial technology
Carbon dioxide is India's primary
greenhouse gas. India in 1995 emitted 803
million metric tons of CO2, ranking sixth in
the world and contributing 3.6 percent of
the world total-but still emits only one-
sixth the world average per capita Indian
CO2 emissions have increased since 1950 at
a rate of 6 percent per year, implying Indian
C02 emissions will double to about 1, 606
mml by 2007 at the current economic
growth rate.
 Russia Thumbs Up for Emissions
Trading
Russia supports
the US position on emissions trading without
caps and the Argentine proposal on developing-
country participation in emissions trading.
- Russia, like the US, is one of the so-
called "umbrella" countries that have
been consistent proponents of
emissions trading
Many Russian officials say that the best way to
develop an emissions trading market is through
bilateral relations, arguing that a unitary global
emissions trading system will not soon be in
operation. Russia is eager to begin trading on a
pilot basis because it wants to sell a large
portion of its emissions quota under the Kyoto
Protocol. according to press reports.
- At Kyoto last year, Russia pledged that
its emissions in 2008-2012 would not
exceed those of 1990; currently they
may be as much as 30 percent below
that target, largely because of the
faltering economy.
Russia's Ministry of Economics with World
Bank assistance has begun a macroeconomics
analysis of the effects of emissions trading on
the economy
=Russia could receive $3-4.5 billion annually
by 2010 by trading-greenhouse gas emission
permits.
The Russians concede that their most significant
obstacle to emissions trading is that, because of
funding constraints, they have not monitored
emissions of greenhouse gas since the breakup
of the Soviet Union. Moscow hopes to use
trading revenues to strengthen its monitoring
and control capabilities.
.4 hardline Russian newspaper recently
criticized US-Russia environmental
cooperation-including that under the Joint
Commission Environmental Working
Group-and attacked State Committee on
Environmental Protection
(Goskomekologiya) Chairman Danilov-
Danil 'yan for a supposed US-led plot to
undermine Russia. The article claimed the
US is using environmental issues to weaken
Russia militarily, steal its natural resources,
and saddle it with millions of dollars in debt
to international institutions. The article
appears to have arisen from infighting over
plans-since canceled-to merge the
hydrometeorological service (Roshydromer)
with Goskomekologiya.
 Se
 Sub-Saharan Leaders See Vulnerabilities
to Climate Change
South Africa's Environment Minister Jordan
asserts his country's average air temperatures
will rise by 2 degrees Celsius by 2048,
increasing prospects for drought and flooding,
according to press reports. Senegal fears the
advance of the Sahara is accelerating
Regional press reports speculate that
climate change strengthened the effect
of El Nino this year in Uganda, Kenya,
and Tanzania, where unseasonably
heavy rains ruined crops, washed out
roads, and spawned disease
Africans assert the US and other Western
countries are causing climate change, and they
expect compensation for losses from global
warming and aid in cutting their emissions.
Senegal wants joint implementation (JI) projects
to help curb its industries' emissions and would
be skeptical about any emissions trading regime
that involved developing countries
- Kenyan officials say JI projects must
address Africa's economic and social
woes to have a sustainable
environmental impact.
- South Africa wants to increase
developing countries' control over JI
and other aid mechanisms
United Front, Divergent Objectives
At the Buenos Aires talks, the Africans will line
up behind the G-77 consensus. Among the most
outspoken countries will be Zimbabwe and
Tanzania, which habitually use multilateral talks
to criticize the wealthy West. Moderate but less
vocal states like Senegal and Cameroon support
market-based mechanisms-such as emissions
trading among developed countries-and are
counting on China, India, and Brazil to show
more flexibility in considering emissions caps,
- Nigeria will join other OPEC members
in seeking a compensation fund for
fuel exporters that face revenue losses
from emissions cuts.
- South Africa will be a spokesman for
African interests but may accept
targets for cutting emissions from its
relatively advanced, carbon-intensive
industries.
Regional conflicts may distract African states
active in past climate change talks. The war in
Congo is diverting attention in Zimbabwe and
other southern African states, and Senegal is
facing a military quagmire in Guinea-Bissau.
- Nigeria is preoccupied with its
transition from military to civilian rule.
 Climate Change and Instability in Ethiopia
If climate change worsens drought cycles, states across Africa will face recurrent food and water crises.
Unresponsive and inefficient governments will be more vulnerable to instability.
Academics note that severe drought in 1973 and 1983 were instrumental in the downfall of Emperor
Haile Selassie and his successor, President Mengistu. In both cases, local officials withheld information
on the extent of crop failure and starvation from the central government in Addis Ababa. Failure to
acknowledge--much less to alleviate-humanitarian disasters helped spur the Marxist coup of 1974 and
the Tigray insurgency that ousted Mengistu in 1991.
many Ethiopians still farm marginal land and remain vulnerable to
drought and famine.
The El Nino last year produced rainfall patterns similar to those of the 1972-73 drought, but
prompt action by Prime Minister Meles's government and the donor community averted a
famine.
 Edge of Haakan Mosby Mud
Volcano showing white bacteria
of methane and hydrogen sulfide
that seep from the volcano.
 Turkey-Syria: Strains Over Water
Continue
Perspective allocation of Euphrates River water
has been a sore point between Ankara and
Damascus since the early 1980s when Turkey
began work on the Southeast Anatolia Project-
usually known by its Turkish acronym GAP-a
huge hydropower and irrigation project
involving the construction of 22 dams. Five of
the dams are to be built on the Euphrates, three
of which have been completed
Under a 1987 protocol seen by both sides as
temporary, Turkey must deliver to Syria at least
500 cubic meters per second (m3/s) on
average-about half of the Euphrates River's
total flow. Syria retains 42 percent of this water
and passes the remainder to Iraq-its historic
ally on water issues.
- Damascus has expressed concerns,
however, about the quantity of the
water-which covers about 3 5 percent
of Syria's total needs-and the quality,
which it says is affected by the GAP
project.
- Ankara counters that it is providing
more than 900 m3/s of water and that
Syria benefits from a steadier
waterflow thanks to the GAP dams.
Both countries have enough water to meet their
current needs but anticipate large increases in
demand in coming decades.
Syria wants a permanent agreement that gives it
a larger share of Euphrates water.
Cutoff Not in Turkey's Interests
Nonetheless Turkey is not using a cutoff in
water delivery as a lever in its current campaign
to force a halt in Syrian support for Kurdistan
Workers' Pa (PKK) terrorists.
Using the three hydroelectric dams on the
Euphrates to hold back water would eliminate
more than one-fourth of Turkey's total power-
generating capacity at a time when the country
- The Turkish minister responsible for
GAP this month publicly said Turkey
would not take such action-even in
case of war with Syria-because it is
not Turkish policy to punish people for
the mistakes of their leaders.
 Selected International Environment-Related Meetings
2-13 November
Fourth Conference of Parties to the
Buenos Aires
Climate Change Convention
3-9 November
Twenty Fifth Session of the International
Yokohama
Tropical Timber Organization
5-6 November
Second OSCE Conference on Economic
Istanbul
and Environmental Issues
4-6 November
Global Environment Facility
Washington
Council Meeting
12-18 November
APEC Ministerial and Heads
Kuala Lumpur
of State Meeting
17-24 November
Tenth Conference of Parties to the
Cairo
Montreal Protocol
Cartagena