INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005284803
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: June 24, 2015
• Document Release Date: May 27, 2011
• Case Number: F-2008-00831
• Publication Date: August 28, 1998

b 66L, FEe:
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International Environmental Intelligence Brief
Contents
Articles
China's Floods Highlight Domestic Troubles
Issue 98/8 28 August 1998
Environment Not Prime Concern for New Japanese
Tajikistan's Lake Sarez Dam Breach Not Immediate Thread'
Page
I
Brazil Takes Belated Action on Atlantic Rain Forest
Calendar
Cuba Looking for Drought Relief
Staking Out Positions on the Biosafety Protocol
APPROVED FOR RELEASEL
DATE: 17-May-2011
 China's Floods Highlight Domestic
Troubles
Beijing is blaming the floods on local officials in
the wake of mounting charges of corruption and
diversion of funds from flood control projects.
According to Western press reports, funds
appropriated for the construction of dikes along
the Yangze River (Chang Jiang) have been
diverted to fund the Three Gorges Dam, and
victims of the floods have complained that local
officials have been pocketing relief funds.
During a visit to the flood area,
Premier Zhu complained that the dikes
that had been breached were "a
construction of bean curd and turtle
eggs" and exclaimed "how can
corruption reach such a stage?"
Beijing publicly warned officials not to
misappropriate funds and dismissed a
Daqing city official for failing to
respond to the flooding quickly
enough.
In early August Beijing imposed a news
blackout on negative flood stories, preferring
instead to focus on the heroic efforts of soldiers
shoring up dikes. Statistics on the number of
deaths have not been updated in two weeks.
Beijing has blamed the floods for reducing GDP
growth by 0.4 percentage point in the first half
of the year. An official press report in late
August, however, says the floods have shaved
0.5 percentage point off GDP, presumably
reflecting part of the third quarter and
suggesting the ongoing flooding will continue to
undercut growth.
Officials also blamed floods for
contributing to a slowdown in
industrial production growth from 8
percent over the previous year in May
to 7.6 percent in July.
In the northeastern province of Heilongjiang,
floods are threatening the provincial capital and
industrial city or Harbin as well as China's
largest and most prized oilfield at Daqing.
According to Western press reports, two dikes
have been breached, closing 1,809 wells
- China's two top military leaders
personally have directed 20,000 troops
to shore up the dikes to hold back
flood waters around Daging, according
to official press reports
 Japanese Government
Under Prime Minister Obuchi, joint
implementation and emissions trading schemes
will continue to be the key to meeting Japan's
Kyoto target. He is a prominent member of an
LDP group-initiated by his mentor, former
Prime Minister Takeshita-that promotes
investment opportunities for Japanese business
in such overseas environmental projects.
- Joint implementation projects and
emissions trading schemes with Russia
will reinforce Obuchi's efforts to
improve relations with Moscow-one of
his top diplomatic priorities-and a
policy shift in Tokyo last year led to the
resumption of tied green aid for
developing countries.
In general, however, Kyoto-related issues will
have a far lower political priority for Obuchi
than they had for Hashimoto. Obuchi has made
it clear that dealing with Japan's banking and
fiscal problems will be his top priority.
While Tokyo will want to show that it
is a player in Buenos Aires, it will not
have the same high-profile stake in the
meeting's success as it did when it
hosted the Kyoto conference.
New Environment Minister Manabe lacks the
political clout to compensate for diminished
prime-ministerial involvement. Trade and
Industry Minister Yosano-the other major
Cabinet player on environmental issues-has
policy expertise in environmental issues but, as
a member of the Diet's commerce and industry
lobby, may be inclined to side with the business
community, which has sought to limit or water
down domestic environmental regulations.
Kyoto issues will continue to be worked at the
bureaucratic level, where Trade Ministry and
Environment Agency officials are making
incremental progress toward meeting Tokyo's
emissions reduction target in the face of
opposition to domestic measures.
 Tajikistan's Lake Sarez Dam Breach Not
Immediate Threat
A total collapse of the rockslide dam holding
back the lake in the mountains of eastern
Tajikistan-with potentially disastrous
consequences downstream-would require an
earthquake of magnitude 6.0 within 70 km and
no more than 30 km deep
Such an event is
highly unlikely despite the occurrence of 22
earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 or greater within
250 km of the dam during the past 24 years.
The lake, formed by an earthquake-induced
rockslide in 1911, is some 61 km long and
averages 1.4 km wide and 185 meters dee . It is
more than 3, 000 meters above sea level.
Tajikistan and Russian scientists and their Soviet
predecessors have long worried that an
earthquake-weakened dam might unleash a wall
of water, wiping out downstream towns along
the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border and
threatening important Turkmen and Uzbekistani
gas and oil fields.
a
breach could destroy nearby villages inhabited
by some 1,500 Tajikistanis within hours.
- The region of southwestern Tajikistan
and northwestern Afghanistan further
downstream-CIA estimates put the
population at 1-2 million-would be at
risk, flooding in about two days.
- Eastern Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan
would experience relatively minor and
localized flooding, with more than four
days' warning.
Eliminating Risk Difficult and Expensive
Soviet officials in the 1970s rejected five plans
to prevent collapse of the dam and use the lake's
resources for irrigation and hydropower because
each would have cost more than a billion rubles,
according to press reports. Dushanbe has even
fewer resources and has been unable to maintain
the radio system set up in 1980 to notify
officials of any movement of the dam.
- In search of foreign aid, Tajikistan at the
Central Asian summit last year proposed
a massive project to divert the lake's
water to the parched Aral Sea region,
according to press reports.
- In July, UN Under Secretary Sergio De
Mello visited Tajikistan to assess
disaster-related proiects~
 Rain Forest
The Brazilian Government's Institute for
Environmental Affairs (IBAMA) -teaming up
with the military police for the first time-has
launched "Operation Atlantica," an effort to
assess the extent of damage in Mata Atlantica, a
coastal rain forest internationally recognized as
the second-most endangered ecosystem in the
world (after that of Madagascar).
Mata Atlantica has been deforested
more than twice as fast as the
Amazon-the tropical rain forest now
covers only 10,000 square km of the
coastline, down from 850,000 square
km when the area was first settled.
"Operation Atlantica" is the first initiative in
the coastal rain forest under Brazil's new
environmental law, which established fines and
jail sentences for crimes against the
environment. Heretofore, Brasilia has largely
ignored deforestation along the Atlantic coast in
favor of higher-profile activities in the Amazon.
The central government in the early 1990s
promulgated laws and created national parks to
help conserve the ecosystem, but a lack of
political will, resource constraints, and a weak
environmental protection institution have
hampered effective enforcement. Despite bans
on large-scale development within Mata
Atlantica, state officials say deforestation has
continued because of ineffective policing of the
area
Both leading gubernatorial candidates in
Sao Paulo state are campaigning on ill-
defined prodevelopment platforms and
have no demonstrated commitment to
environmental issues.
The international community and local NGOs
have tried to fill the void in the face of weak
state and federal government efforts. SOS
Atlantic Rain Forest, for example, capitalizes on
its technical expertise and financial resources to
foster more effective conservation efforts.
Between 5 and 8 percent of US bilateral aid
programs in Brazil are devoted to preservation
of Mata Atlantica. In 1994, the World Bank
donated $20.3 million to Brazil for tropical
forest protection, $19.9 of which was earmarked
for Mata Atlantica,
 Brazil's Other Dwindling Rain Forest
Upon Brazil's discovery in 1500, the state of Sao Paulo
was covered by more than 80 percent tropical forest.
By 1920, more than half of the Mata Atlantica had been
destroyed.
Ecologists expect the Mata Atlantica to he near
extinction in 2000, reduced to nearly 3 percent
of the original size.
Unclassified 747211 PM 8.98
 Se
 Cuba Looking for Drought Relief
Lack of rain this spring is hurting agriculture,
already reeling from the worst sugar harvest in
50 years, especially in the five eastern
provinces. The UN's World Food Program
estimates food crops are $60 million below
production goals.
The drought has seriously degraded
potable water supplies island wide, and
officials apparently have been
collecting small containers to supply
townspeople cut off from fresh water
supplies
Havana has requested emergency aid from the
UN
Havana will try to avoid sharp cuts in food
supplies, boosting imports if necessary but
looking for international aid. The country has
little ability to borrow, and financing such
imports without special credits would require
cutting purchases in other sectors
eventual drought damage could be
much greater because of planting
delays affecting future sugar and rice
harvests.
rainfall
from April through June was only 6 percent
of normal. Rainfall last month, however,
was only 30 percent below normal. Havana
announced that reservoirs were as low as 26
nercent ofcanacity in some nrovince.c_
 Staking Out Positions on Biosafety
US negotiators faced resistance to limiting the
scope of the proposed biosafety protocol to the
UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)
at the penultimate round of talks in Montreal in
late August. The Protocol, to be completed no
later than next February, will regulate the cross-
border movement, handling, and use of
genetically or living modified organisms-
GMOs and LMOs.
- Tens of billions of dollars in US
exports, mostly agricultural, may be
affectedJ
As this issue was going to press, preliminary
reports indicated the US
delegation had succeeded in keeping most
controversial areas of the draft protocol text in
brackets, forcing postponement of ke decisions
until the final round early next year.
International support for a binding regulatory
framework for biotechnology products is strong
among most of the more than 160 parties to the
CBD, who contend that GMOs and LMOs may
have unforeseen environmental and food safety
risks. Many EU members have strict health-
based restrictions on GMOs and want a
Biosafety Protocol to guarantee that the release
of transgenic plants, seeds, or animals in their
countries will not upset natural ecosystems or
contaminate food.
these governments
are reacting to opposition to GMOs by
consumer and environmental groups.
In Ireland, the UK, and Germany anti-
GMO activists have destroyed test
fields of gene-altered corn, soybean,
and sugar beets.
- GMO opponents say that undesired
traits such as allergens or toxins many
be transferred unintentionally to new
plants or that newly modified strains
can cross-pollinate with native species.
A strict protocol would limit the ability of US
and multinational firms to conduct research in
countries with biodiverse ecosystems.
Developing countries such as Brazil, India,
Chile, Costa Rica, and Thailand want the
Protocol to guarantee them control over their
genetic resources to prevent "biopiracy" and
"bioprospecting" by foreign firms.
These countries have or are preparing
strict domestic biodiversity laws,
- Most developing countries, moreover,
insist that indigenous knowledge of
medicinal and other uses of
biodiversi be protected under the
Protocol
Few countries are showing flexibility on the
issue of Advanced Informed Agreement (AIA)
procedures that would require notification and
consent from countries importing GMOs and
LMOs. Many EU states want AIA procedures
applied to each shipment of GMOs, including
commingled agricultural product
Australia may approve voluntary AIA
guidelines but has stringent
phytosanitary laws and wants the
ability to restrict all GMO imports,
especially materials that can
re produce
 Selected International Environment-Related Meetings
22 May-30 September
24 August-4 September
24 August-4 September
30 August-2 September
1-3 September
1- 9 September
21 September-1 October
28 September-5 October
26-28 October
2-13 November
4-6 November
12-18 November
1998 Lisbon World Exposition (EXPO 198)
Theme: The Oceans, a Heritage for
the Future
Fifth Negotiating Session on the
Biosafety Protocol
Second Conference of Parties to the
Convention to Combat Desertification
Fourth International Conference on
Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies
APEC Officials Meeting
on Environment
APEC Senior Officials Meeting
FAO Panel of Experts Meeting on
Pesticides and Residues
Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change Plenary
OECD Conference on Eco-Labeling
FAO Meeting on Sustainable Fisheries
Fourth Conference of Parties to the
Climate Change Convention
Global Environment Facility
Council Meeting
APEC Ministerial and Heads
of State Meeting
Tenth Conference of Parties to the
Montreal Protocol
Geneva
Dakar
Interlaken
Singapore
Kuala Lumpur
Berlin
Rome
Buenos Aires
Washington
Kuala Lumpur
Cairo