INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005284795
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 24
• Document Creation Date: June 24, 2015
• Document Release Date: May 27, 2011
• Case Number: F-2008-00831
• Publication Date: May 28, 1999

(b)(3)
Oz
/ATtS G~ F+'
C -r AID CZ2 L-3 ~O C~ C7 O Q
international Environmental InteMgUFOYBrief
Issue 99/5 28 May 1999
age
1
Albania: Potential Industrial and Environmental Hazards
4
European Stance Hardening on Genetically Modified Food
Jordanian, Syrian Agricultural Sectors Hard Hit by Droug
ht
Iraq Facing Water and Grain Shortages
Cuba Unlikely to Request Food Aid Despite Dry Spell
South Korea: Hesitant Ally in the Kyoto Debate
Indian Court Aggressively Pursuing Auto Emission Reductions I 17
China Stepping on the Gas
Indonesian Forest Fires and Haze Less Severe This Indonesian Forest Fires and Haze Less Severe This Yeah
Conference on Disasters Adopts Ambitious Program
Calendar
APPROVED FOR RELEASEL
DATE: 17-May-2011
 1,
 Sec
Environmental Hazards
Albania's crumbling and historically unregulated
industrial base may present hazards to NATO
forces, relief organizations, and refugees in
several- parts of the country. Althou man
industrial plants are not operating
industrial wastes and chemical storage containers
of questionable integrity, marking, and contents
remain at some sites.
- Moreover, years of unregulated
discharge of airborne- and waterborne-
industrial pollutants, untreated sewage,
and poor agricultural management have
degraded air, water, and soil quality,
according to a variety of open source
reporting.
- The most immediate risk to personnel is
water-borne bacteria.
A World Health Organization country-wide
monitoring system-in conjunction with the
Albanian Government-has detected no
outbreaks of infectious diseases anywhere in the
country. The recent influxes of Kosovar Albanian
refugees, however, has probably led to localized
microbial contamination of streams near border
crossings.
 ~i ;?: .. .. ~ c,~.; ..
 European Stance Hardening on
Genetically Modified Food
Opposition to genetically modified (GM) foods
reignited in late May in the wake of a Cornell
University study showing pollen from US pest
resistant GM corn can kill monarch butterflies.
After boisterous public outcry the UK's Chief
Science Adviser announced that, while field trials
would continue, no new GM foods would be
approved for commercial release until 2003.
- The European Commission suspended
the approval process for GM corn, and
at least 1 I other such foods are awaiting
approval.
- Russia said that after 1 July it will allow
GM food imports only after they are
tested and registered, and Greece
banned experimental plantings of seven
genetically modified farm products.
Similarly, French Environment Minister Voynet
announced Paris would suspend new permits for
the marketing of GM vegetables and called for a
reappraisal of those that have already been
approved. The French Agricultural Ministry
hinted that the existing ban on some GM products
such as beets could be extended to GM corn if
the Cornell findings are verified, according to
press reports.
Austria banned the pest resistant GM
corn sited in the Cornell University
report until further tests prove that it
only affects targeted harmful insects.
The reaction already is having a negative impact
on North-American grain producers. A large
Canadian corn miller announced it will not buy
GM corn from farmers for fear of losing
European customers, according to media reports.
See
Public Acceptance Plummeting in UK
Having repeatedly endorsed GM foods as safe,
the Blair government finds itself on the defensive
in light of the Cornell study and a report by a
British scientist suggesting GM potatoes are
harmful to mice. In the mid-1990s, the UK had
one of Europe's highest levels of consumer
acceptance of GM foods, but a poll this month
shows only I percent of Britons consider GM
organisms good for society.
A leading British medical group in late
May called for a moratorium on the
planting of GM foods and several
supermarket chains have banned GM
products or have adopted voluntary
labeling schemes.
The public distrust of GM foods-and
of the government's response on the
issue-stems largely from the mad cow
disease outbreak in 1996.
London in May announced the creation of two
advisory bodies to assess the impact of GM foods
on health, agriculture, and the environment.
An association of biotech companies warned that
these new "bureaucratic layers" will slow
research and development and undermine the
UK's competitiveness in the biotech field,
according to press reports.
- Some biotech firms charge that scientific
assessment is taking a back seat to
political expediency and call on the
government to do more to halt public
"hysteria" over GM foods.
 Jordanian, Syrian Agriculture Sectors
Hard Hit by Drought
The regional drought, which forecasters say will
continue through the summer, has cost Jordan
almost $200 million in lost agricultural production
and could push the kingdom's real GDP growth
rate into the negative range this year. Rainfall has
been less than half of the seasonal average, causing
severe damage to all rain-fed crops.
Syria Suffering
water supplies in Syria are at
their lowest in decades, causing severe damage to
the agricultural sector Syrian
wheat production could decline by 44 percent and
barley production by 66 percent this year.
Agriculture accounts for about 30 percent of
Syria's GDP
estimates that Jordan this year will post
declines of 80 percent in grain
production, 40 percent in animal
production, and 50 percent in fruit tree
yields.
Amman has announced only limited drought aid
for farmers because of its tight budget. The
government has cut interest rates to farmers and
charged farmers reduced livestock fodder prices
for animal breeders.
- Amman, however, has not rescinded
deep cuts in water allocation to
-agriculture intended to reduce water
shortages in urban areas.
Challenge for Abdallah
King Abdallah faces the challenge of managing
disgruntlement over water shortfalls in cities and
increased hunger in the countryside.
farmers may be hard pressed to suppo eirr
families this year, swelling the ranks of the rural
poor.
crop losses
will decrease the nutritional intake of
rural residents, and as many as 200,000
Jordanians may need emergency
supplementary food assistance this year.
- Press reports say hundreds of Jordan
Valley farmers in mid-May
demonstrated to protest deteriorating
economic conditions
 Jordan: Selected Agricultural Production, 1992-99
aFstimated.
bProjected.
Thousand metric tons (note scale change)
Wheat
Red Meat-and Poultry
 Iraq Facing Water and Grain Shortages
Although not as severe as claimed by the
Ministries of Irrigation and Agriculture, Iraq will
be challenged by shortages of water this summer
and possibly grain early next year
Iraq's efforts to deal with the situation
will be complicated by reduced grain reserves-
According to CIA analysis,
precipitation during the most recent
November-May rainy season was no
better than half of normal and the
ongoing harvest will be about 30
percent below normal-not the 80
percent deficit for each as Baghdad has
claimed in the press.
- According to press reports, Iraqi
officials blame part of the water
shortage on increased storage in the
Turkish dams upriver-those associated
with the Grand Anatolia Project and
Syria's one major dam on the Euphrates
River are critical to Iraq's water budget.
Baghdad has started to impose measures to offset
the water shortage, such as stricter regulation of
irrigation water, but continues to abuse water
resources in vanity projects such as man-made
lakes for senior official
Even with conservation
in the agricultural sector, Iraq will have to draw
down its reservoirs further to meet needs for
irrigation and drinking water this summer,
increasing the deficit needed to be made up in
future wet seasons.
- The time needed to recover will depend
primarily on flow through the Tigris
and Euphrates and secondarily on
rainfall.
Saddam may deal with food shortages by
requesting UN approval for a larger food budget
allocation under the oil-for-food program or by
accepting humanitarian aid shipments. He may
reduce food rations for the general population in
order to guarantee he has adequate supplies to
maintain the loyalty of his inner circle and
security forces.
Another option would be to deplete
reserves to maintain close-to-normal
supplies of grain for the entire
population, thereby postponing dealing
with shortages.
 Iraq: Percent of Normal Rainfall, September 1998 to April 1999
Turkey
,rkdt
Karkuk
Baghdad
*
a~rT 'Karbala
Kuwait \ Persian
Gulf
--4111
sOO K omexrs
loo H:,s
Caspian
i Sea
BouM3 , IeptOSentstOn b ? j
ewtnx~sany OWftaitaC.~.'L
750212A1(W0887) 5.99
n ed
 Kazakhstan's Water Woes
Kyrgyztan in late May cut off Kazakhstan's water
supply from the Kara Bura reservoir in retaliation
for Astana's refusal to deliver coal under a
tripartite agreement with Uzbekistan, according to
press reports. The agreement mandates sharing the
water of the Syrdariya River in exchange for
energy resources.
- The cutoff may jeopardize the cotton
crop, southern Kazakhstan's primary
product
Meanwhile, Kazakhstan in May began talks with
China about Beijing's plan to build a canal that
would divert water from the Irtysh River to a
Xinjiang oilfield by yearend. The diversion could
disrupt Astana's water supply and undermine the
region's economy and environment, including
navigation on Russia's Ob River.
- Despite progress on other bilateral
issues with Beijing, Astana will seek
Moscow's participation to influence the
Chinese
 Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan Cuts Off Kazakbstani Water Supply, Late May 1999
Caspian
Sea
Kyrgyzstan cuts off
water supply to
southern Kazakhstan
from Karabura Reservoir,
` ti
Afghanistan
Lake
Balkhash
 Cuba Unlikely to Request Food Aid
Despite Dry Spell
The unusually dry weather affecting Cuba's
eastern provinces for the past several months
should ease with the onset of the rainy season in
May, according to official Cuban data. If rainfall
returns to normal within the next several weeks,
agricultural losses will be limited primarily to
livestock and the corn crop-often used for
animal feed.
- Most food staples such as beans, rice,
potatoes, and other vegetables are
planted later in the year.
- Cuba's dilapidated agricultural
infrastructure and persistent fuel
shortages leave the sector especially
vulnerable to unfavorable climatic
fluctuations.
If rainfall does not return to normal, Havana is
likely to reduce state-subsidized rations and use its
scarce foreign exchange to import additional food.
The subsidized egg ration in Santiago de Cuba is
down to 1 per person per month from 3, and the
state is stretching out the rice ration by requiring
consumers to buy smaller amounts throughout the
month,
- Havana last year spent roughly $370
million for food, about 12 percent of
total imports,
Cuba last year received about $20 million in food
aid from the UN World Food Program, but some
donors were skeptical that the drought was the
primary reason for the production shortfall,
the Cuban
scrutiny-will request assistance this year only if
conditions worsen dramatically
Cuban press reports say dry weather touched
offseveral fires during April and May that
destroyed more than 8, 000 hectares offorest
lands in the western province of Pinar del Rio.
The Cuban expatriate group Alpha 66 claimed
responsibility for the fires, but the grou has
made false sabotage claims in the past.
 South Korea Hesitant Ally in Kyoto
Debate
Seoul is nervous about its ability to deliver
emissions limits despite indicating in April its
willingness to discuss a so-called transition target
prior to 2018. The effects of the recent financial
crisis on its economy are fresh, making it
cautious about further commitments in the
climate change talks.
- The ruling party, however, advocates
national legislation to address climate
change and establishment of a
public/private panel to draft policy
measures, according to press reports.
South Korea also supports the US on unrestricted
emissions trading against the EU's efforts to curb
trading and go back on the Kyoto agreement.
Seoul sees the
potential benefits of trading for South Korea.
- In addition, Seoul supports the US
position on credits to be earned from
private sector investments in developing
countries through the Clean
Development Mechanism
Other governments are watching to see what
course South Korea takes in the climate
negotiations, particularly on the emissions target
issue. For example, the American Institute reports
that Taiwan believes-for export price
competitiveness reasons-that it cannot move
toward a target until South Korea does
16
Sec
 Indian Court Aggressively Pursuing Auto
Emission Reductions
The Supreme Court in late April banned
registration of privately owned automobiles in
New Delhi and vicinity that do not conform to
new, tougher emission standards. All
noncommercial cars must comply with Euro I
emission norms by 1 June and the tougher Euro II
norms after 1 April 2000.
The court also rejected pleas by the federal
government and automobile industry leader
Maruti Udyog Ltd.-likely to be hit hardest by
the order-to extend the deadline for conformity,
according to press reports. Other car
manufacturers-Hyundai, Telco, and Daewoo-
are far ahead in adhering to emission norms.
- The ruling is the latest in a series of
measures aimed at reducing air
pollution in the Delhi area.
- The Supreme Court previously banned
taxis and cars more than 15 years old
and mandated the availability of
unleaded gasoline.
The court's action suggests India's judiciary is
becoming more proactive on environmental
issues. The order-which moved up the deadline
for Euro II conformity by five years and
dominated India's media for a full week-reflects
popular frustration with the slow progress of
cleaning up the environment.
- The court rejected previous pleas by
officials for more time to consult with
auto manufacturers, citing its
displeasure with the government's slow
implementation of the Environment Act
of 1986.
When asked about extending the
deadline for conformity, one court
official said, "You are talking of
breathing time; we are finding it
difficult to breathe."
- The order does not apply to two-wheel
powered vehicles-70 percent of
India's personal vehicles-which have
almost no pollution controls
The number of vehicles in India grew more than
11-fold between 1970 and 1990. Privately-owned
vehicles make up 90 percent of those in the Delhi
region, and an Indian study calculates auto
emissions account for 63 percent of air pollutants
in the capital.
 China Stepping on the Gas
Beijing over the past two months has begun
promoting natural.gas production as a clean and
efficient substitute for coal-which supplies 75
percent of China's primary energy. Resource and
financial constraints and limited gas consumption,
however, may make it difficult to achieve official
gas-use targets of 85-200 billion cubic meters by
2020
- China has nine of the 10 most polluted
cities in the world, according to the
World Resources Institute.
Beijing's forestry administration
estimates that the acid rain that falls on
40 to 50 percent of the country causes
timber and crop losses of $12 billion
annually
Chinese companies are trying to develop onshore
and offshore gas resources and to build pipelines,
and the China National Petroleum Corporation
late last year centralized control of pipeline
management. CNPC in April started 30 gas-
related projects in the northwestern province of
Xinjiang, announced plans to build-a 4,200-km
gas pipeline to Shanghai, and began construction
of a pipeline from Sichuan Province to Wuhan,
according to press reports.
- Beijing also plans to import liquefied
natural gas, but officials say
infrastructure preparations will delay
imports until 2005.
Discussions have been held on plans to
construct two pipelines from Sibera,
one from Kazakhstan, and one from
Turkmenistan, although progress has
been slow because of high costs and
political difficulties
Trying to Lure Foreign Investment
Beijing is considering offering foreign gas
companies bidding rights to develop gas
resources in central and northwest China,
according to a CNPC official quoted in the
official Chinese press. Beijing has promised
foreign companies tax holidays, rapid project
approval, higher gas prices, and take-or-pay
contracts-which require the buyer to pay for the
contracted supply whether or not delivery is
taken-according to official Chinese and
Western press reports.
Even with these plans to increase production,
China has not taken important steps to promote gas
use. For a sustainable market, Beijing will have to
encourage broader-based use of gas-fired thermal
electric plants, which it has not done.
...:...,.. _.. .. ~. ...-_... ..-",. -. ''3'?. CS off'}. ,.. r. .. ._. .~.. ....
 Existing and Proposed Natural Gas Pipelines to China
Indian
Ocean
laysia
Existingtransit pipeline
- - Proposed pipeline route-
ii Selected gasfield . -
- - - - Selected province-level boundary
Yamal -
Peninsula
ahute n_ ~Cheng
5 South
Yacheng China
etnam Sea
Brunei
Malaysia
Philippines
North
Pacific
Ocean
Boundary represenmsn a
net necessanty autantawe.
 Indonesian Forest Fires and Haze Less
Severe This Year
Haze from Indonesian fires this spring blanketed
parts of Singapore and Malaysia, raising fears of
a repeat of the crisis of 1997-98. Scattered fires-
and associated haze-are likely to occur in
Indonesia throughout the rest of this year, but
higher-than-normal rainfall suggests the problem
will not be as severe as the last time.
a moderate La Nina brought
above-normal rainfall to central and
eastern Indonesia in recent months,
particularly in January and April.
- The International Research Institute for
Climate Prediction (IRI) forecasts
above-normal rainfall in the area from
July through September.
The fire risk appears greatest in Sumatra and in
western Java, whic eceived below-
normal rainfall early this year. Indonesia is
entering its dry season, and IRI forecasts below-
normal precipitation in both areas through next
month and higher-than-normal temperatures in
most of Indonesia through Septembe
Some regional meteorologists predict another
El Niflo-similar to the one that caused the
drought that contributed to the number and
intensity of the fire in 19,97-?8-will occur
in 18 to 24 months._ skeptical
because models do not allow predictions that
far in advance and because a typical El Nino
cycle is three to seven years, but
acknowledges droughts could occur.
Weaker Government Response Likely
The Indonesian Government may be less capable
of dealing with fires this year because of its
preoccupation with political and economic
problems
political and economic instability have created an
atmosphere in which the population is less
intimidated by authorities and less willing to obey
laws against burning.
e development of
the lucrative oil palm industry, which
involves land clearing by fire, will
remain a priority for cash-starved
Indonesia, making it more inclined to
look the other way in cases of plantation
fires
$e t
 Indonesia: Precipitation Forecast, July to September 199'
Source: International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, April 1999.
Indonesia: Temperature Forecast, July to September 1999
 Conference on Disasters Adopts Ambitious
Program
The 18 countries participating in the second
international conference in mid-May in Mexico
City agreed to take further steps to establish a
Global Disaster Information Network (GDIN) to
assist in responding to disasters worldwide,
The conference
established working groups on policy, outreach,
technology, pilot projects, and capacity building.
- The policy group will discuss the
handling of intelligence on disasters and
disaster mitigation.
- The technology group, which the US is
to lead, will discuss ways to improve
the distribution and use of remote-
sensing data
The capacity building group will suggest ways to
improve information connectivity in developing
countries. Foreign assistance was not part of the
original or the current GDIN concept, but several
participants said GDIN will have to provide
technical and financial hel to developing
countries
Sovereignty an Issue
Mexico voiced concerns about remote sensing on
its territory. The conference final report will state
that GDIN activities are not intended to affect the
sovereignty of states.
Placing the global leadership of GDIN
within the UN was discussed.
Participants did not object to a US
proposal that the policy working group
study this model and others.
Poor Attendance Raises Eyebrows
Potential major GDIN players Russia, France,
and Germany, which may view the US role in
GDIN as excessive, did not attend. Russia
canceled at the last minute, possibly because of
the Kosovo crisis.
The third GDIN conference, scheduled for
Turkey next April, will focus on developing
partnerships in the Americas, Africa, the Middle
East, Central Asia, and Europe, and on a GDIN
implementation strategy. A conference in
Australia the following years will focus on
GDIN's initial operating capability.
 Selected International Environment Related Meetings
31 May -11 June
5 June
7-11June
8-11 June
14-18 June
18-20 June
14-18 June
28-30 July
6-11 September
9-13 September
4-8 October
25 October - S November
15-26 November
Climate Change Convention
Subsidiary Bodies Meeting.
World Environment Day
International Celebrations
Convention on Biological Diversity
Intersessional Meeting
Twenty Ninth Meeting of the OECD
Chemical Management Committee
Ninteenth Open-Ended Working Group
Meeting of the Montreal Protocol
FAO Negotiating Committee for a Legally
Binding Instrument on Prior Informed
Consent (PIC) for Hazardous Chemicals
in International Trade
Second Session of the Experts Group
On Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPS)
Hemispheric Energy Ministerial:
Clean Energy Initiatives
Third Session of the POPs
Intergovernmental Negotiation Committee
APEC Senior Officials Meeting
Biodiversity Convention Expert Panel
on Access and Benefit Sharing
Fifth Session of the Conference of Parties
to the Climate Change Convention
Third Session of the Conference of Parties
to the UN Convention to Combat
Desertification
Sixth International Conference on
Acid Rain Depostion: Acid Rain 2000
Tokyo
Montreal
Paris
Geneva
Cologne
Rome
Vienna
New Orleans
Geneva
Auckland
Tsukuba,
Japan