Initial Request

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005256639
• Release Decision: IPPUB U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: June 23, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 29, 2010
• Case Number: F-2010-00666
• Publication Date: April 16, 2008

KEL MCCLANAHAN
6496 KING LOUIS DRIVE, APARTMENT #203 ? ALEXANDR
_..301-72S-5908 - KELLYBMCC@GNLAU..COM
Scott A. Koch
Information and Privacy Coordinato
Central Intelligence Agency
Washington, DC 20505
APPROVED FOR RELEASED
DATE: 18-Aug-2010
This is a request under the Freedom of Information Act, 5 U S C. ? 552, et seg for
copies of any internal Central Intelligence Agency ("CIA") documents and reports pertaining to
guidelines for National Clandestine Service officers for the evaluation of the likelihood of
success of recruiting agents from within terrorist organizations, including but not limited to any
risk or probability analysis reports based on quantified variables used to determine the
probability of successful recruitment efforts:
This request falls under the educational and scientific fee category, as this material will
be used in the development of a risk analysis report for an academic journal I have attached the
first four pages of the current report as an exemplar, as well as an illustration of the type of
information I am seeking I desire to compare the methodology developed by my colleague and
me with a comparable product from thel U.S. Intelligence Community ("'USIC") before
submitting the final analytical report for publication with the hope that it will aid in the
prosecution of the USIC's ongoing Counter-Terrorism mission.
If you deny all or part of this request, please
your refusal to release the information or per
procedures available under the last' In excising mat
out" or "cut out."
ite the specific exemptions you believe
tit the review and notify me of your appea
ial. please "black out" rather than "white
United States District Court for the District of Columbia. Your cooperation in this matter would
be appreciated. If you wish to discuss this request, please do not hesitate to contact me by e-mail
 Recruiting Agents-iii-lac
Task Force members:
Brad Moss
Kelly McClanahan
This presentation was written during the Fall 2004 in conjunction with a graduate course
provided as an example of risk analysis and "should be treated as such. For more
information please contact infomundoCa'3earthlink.net.
 n:Kel McClanahan (12406812189) To 703-613-3007 (17036133007) 00:41 04112106GMT-07 Pg 04-06
n terrorist groups by country and to apply this model to eight countries with a pre-
existing significant Islamic terrorist presence. The eight countries we have selected are
Egypt, Iran, Kazakhstan, Libya, Pakistan, Paraguay, Saudi Arabia, and Syria
To construct this model, we have identified five factor categories, which are
comprised of several sub-factors. These five factor categories are weighted differently in
ation to significance and are as follows:
? Terroristgroupstatistics10%
?
People and terrorists
36?o
0
People and the U.S.
14%
?
V ildeards 20%.
The valuation of the sub-factors is determined through the consideration of several
variables, grouped into the following seven categories: Social, Government, Akvarenes'
Religions Economic, Education, Terrorism.
The results of the application of this model to the aforementioned countries are
assessed within the following framework:
? 80-100 = Highlvfavorable.
 50-59 - Somewhat favorable- Probability of success is not significant;
proceed with caution.
? 40-49 -Unfavorable risks orundesirabletarget, Terrorist presence is not
significant enough to warrant the effort, or the inherent risks require extre
care.
4 39 and below No reasonable chance of success.
After applying the model to the eight countries, the most favored country for
ecruitment is Saudi Arabia, with a score of 62, followed closely by Pakistan with a sco
a wider spectrum of countries.
That a "Team B" analysis task force be assigned to investigate the alternative
results following the "infiltrator" model of agent recruitment as opposed to the
current "case officer" model.
That the Directorate of Operations begin investigating possible avenues of
 -m:Ke1 McClanahan (12406812189) To:703-613-3007.(17036133007) 00:41 04112108GMT-07 Pg 06-06
Executive Summary
Table of Contents
1. Statement of Problem
II. Objectives of the Study
Methodology
9. Country choice
6
B. Factors
6
Figure 1: Factor contributions
core
10
C. Variables
D. Calculation of factors
IV. Results
Table 1: Variables by Country
Table 2: Factors by Country
10
Figure 2: Country Breakdown
19
Figure 3: Saudi Arabia Breakdown
20
V. Sources
VI. Conclusion
VII. Recommendatio
 FAX COVER SHEET
T
FROM 1 McClanahan (12406812189)
DATE 1 4(12/2008