NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY MONDAY 21 APRIL 1980

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005148701
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: June 23, 2015
• Document Release Date: February 1, 2010
• Case Number: F-2007-00460
• Publication Date: April 21, 1980

IDAyeettar off
Centre
Intelligence
APPROVED FOR RELEASES
DATE: 01-20-2010
National Intelligence Daily
Monday
21 April 1980
Secret
CO NII) 80-094 IX
(b)(1)
(b)(3)
Contents
Situation Report
Iran 1
Briefs and Comments
Israel-Lebanon: Tension Remains High
3
EC-Iran: Possible Sanctions 4
South Korea: Opposition Divided 5
6
Nicaragua: Growing Opposition
Somalia: Refugee Crisis 9
Nigeria: Labor Restiveness 10
Greece: Presidential Election 10
China: IMF Membership 11
Special Analysis
Jamaica: Election Prospects 12
21 April 1980
Turkey
Caspian
TEHRAN
Mashhad
Iran
Haro`'d
Afghanistan
bodes
Shalt al
Iraq ? Saudi Arabia
Neutral Zone
'Shiraz
Pakistan
Saudi Arabia
0 50 190 150 Kilometers
0 50 100 150 Miles
Persian
Gulf
(2'
e Ho
o s,e
?
admin. line
Boundary representation ts
not necessartly authettlattve
United
Gulf of
( Oman
Arabian
Sea
Oman
626958 4-80
, ?
SITUATION REPORT
IRAN
Clashes between Muslim and leftist groups continued at univer-
sities throughout Iran over the weekend despite orders from the
Revolutionary Council to end the fighting; last ni ht the Council
ordered the universities closed until tomorrow.
At least one person has died in Tehran where leftist
Mujahedin students early today agreed to end their sit-in
which was intended to prevent the government from closing
their political offices. In Mashhad, 350 people were
injured and the Mujahedin headquarters was surrounded;
it too will be vacated today. Groups at Shiraz Univer-
sity, where some of the most serious fighting had taken
place, have turned the college over to university offi-
cials. In Abadan, an agreement has also been reached.
President Bani-Sadr and Revolutionary Council spokesman
Habibi met yesterday with the heads of various colleges
to discuss the situation. (U)
The militants holding the hostages have contacts
among these Muslim activists--who also call themselves
followers of Khomeini's line--and are undoubtedly watch-
ing these events closely to see how much support they
generate. The influential Qom Theological Seminary
has come out in support of purging the universities
of leftists. The purses seem to have garnered consider-
able public support.
Soviet Propaganda
Soviet propaganda claims that Moscow has already be-
gun efforts to circumvent a possible US blockade of Iran.
Advertisements carried in the English-language "Moscow
News Weekly" over the past month have referred to a
"reliable and beneficial container landbridge" to Iran.
An article in that same paper said cargo from Western
Europe is pouring into Iran and that transit of Iranian
imports via Soviet territory is of "vital importance" to
Iran because of a threatened US economic blockade.
--continued
Top &ccrc
21 April 1980
Iran-Iraq
Both Baghdad and Tehran kept up their war of words
over the weekend, but there were no reports of new
clashes. Some fighting is continuing between Iranian
Kurds and government forces seeking to reinforce the
border with Iraq.
2
cCfc
21 April 1980
BRIEFS AND COMMENTS
ISRAEL-LEBANON: Tension Remains High
Although no new incidents were reported over the weekend, ten-
sions between Shia villagers, backed by Christian militia Leader
Haddad, and Irish UN troops remain high ? termath of the
murder of two Irish soldiers on Friday.
Shia villagers have sworn to kill two more Irish sol-
diers as "blood revenge" for the deaths of two villagers
in a clash with Irish troops earlier this month, accord-
ing to Israeli Chief of Staff Eitan. Haddad is giving
support to the villagers, many of whom are members of his
militia, despite his denials that his forces had anything
to do with the murders. Haddad's
troops were stopping UN vehicles on Saturday and searching
them for Irish soldiers. The UN has ordered the Irish
units to stay in their compounds.
Israeli officials continued to deny that they have
any control over Haddad or the villagers despite growing
international condemnation of Tel Aviv's support for Had-
dad's militia. Defense Minister Weizman admitted that
Israel supports Haddad but denied that Tel Aviv had any
role in the recent murders.
Israeli patrol boats apparently intercepted a Pal-
estinian guerrilla group on its way to carry out an
attack in Israel Saturday. This was the second attempt
foiled by the Israeli military since the attack on a
settlement in northern Israel two weeks ago--last week-
end security forces captured a group trying to infiltrate
from Jordan.
3
21 April 1980
EC-IRAN: Possible Sanctions
The EC states will probably approve some sanctions against
Iran at the Foreign Ministers' meeting opening tonight in Luxem-
bourg.
The arrival of Japanese Foreign Minister Okita there
to discuss joint sanctions provides a strong indication
that the EC Foreign Ministers will reach a decision to-
morrow, rather than delay it until the EC heads of govern-
ment meeting on Sunday. Japan has indicated that it will
go along with any EC sanctions decision.
Most EC governments are reluctant to incur the costs
of economic and political sanctions and believe that they
will be ineffective or even counterproductive. Neverthe-
less, the EC states feel that they must take some action
to demonstrate solidarity with the US.
Paris, Bonn, and London all oppose a freeze on Ira-
nian assets. Several EC members have claimed that they
would have to obtain the approval of their parliaments
before resorting to full economic sanctions. There is
general agreement, however, that at least some measures
ei_et,_s-lel'i_lindrArilcouldbetal3 of the EC's Rome Treaty.
4
SOUTH KOREA: Opposition Divided
The rivalry between South Korea's two leading opposition pol-
iticians threatens to work to the advantage of more conservative
groups in the military and the government and weaken the drive
toward democratization.
Popular dissident Kim Dae Jung--who nearly unseated
former President Park in the election in 1971--last week
refused to rejoin the opposition New Democratic Party
because of conditions imposed by party president Kim
Young Sam. Kim Dae Jung may have hoped that his refusal
would result in additional sympathy and support within
the party for his candidacy for next year's presidential
election, but the move appears to have backfired.
Kim Dae Jung is hinting that he will form his own
party, and he is seeking broad political support. He is
also hoping for US acceptance of his third party proposal.
The charismatic Kim can count on the support of some new
Democratic Party members and most nonparty dissidents.
All but his most enthusiastic followers, however, are
critical of his willingness to divide the opposition and
reduce the chances for more liberalization.
Kim Dae Jung may find himself increasingly isolated
in an extremist position which could significantl under-
cut his popular appeal over the next year.
5
21 April 1980
NICARAGUA: Growing Opposition
The resignation of junta member Violeta de Chamorro on Saturday
is linked to mounting resistance to Sandinista policies and mau set
the stage for the first serious challenge to the regime.
Although Chamorro ostensibly resigned for health
and family reasons, she reportedly shares the private
sector's concern over the government's mismanagement and
leftist slant. Angered by extra-legal property seizures,
antibusiness decrees and rhetoric, and administrative
incompetence, the private sector now faces an attempt by
the Sandinista national directorate to pack the Council
of State, a quasi-legislative body scheduled to convene
on 4 May.
Various independent political parties and business
associations have coalesced on this issue--reportedly
with the blessing of junta member Alfonso Robelo--and
are considering a general strike if the Sandinistas do
not yield.
Should the directorate hold firm, many Nicaraguans
will see its public commitment to pluralism as mere lip-
service. Moreover, the Sandinistas will be sending a
clear signal of their willingness to risk losing Western
assistance and the participation of the business com-
munity in national reconstruction.
6
21 April 1980
7
19 April 1980
8
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21 April 1980
rct
SOMALIA: Refugee Crisis
The refugees in Somalia are facing starvation.
The refugees, mostly Somali tribesmen from Ethiopia,
are already straining Somalia's resources. The UN High
Commissioner for Refugees estimates the refugee ?o ula-
tion in Somalia to be the largest in the world.
Nearly 650,000 refugees are believed to be in UN
camps, with an additional 700,000 in the countryside.
Approximately 90 percent are women and children.
The situation has become critical in northern Somalia,
where the government has been unable to provide adequate
food, water, and medicine. A drought has led to short-
ages of food and water even among the indigenous popula-
tion. Lack of relief personnel, the considerable dis-
tance of relief camps from the capital, and Ethiopian
airstrikes have com ounded administrative and logistic
problems.
Observers are reporting extensive and increasing mal-
nutrition, especially among children. Unsanitary condi-
tions in the camps have worsened and communicable dis-
eases are spreading. The weekly death toll is likely to
increase soon from dozens to hundreds.
The international community has responded poorly
to a UN appeal for 159,000 tons of food for 1980. The
US reacted promptly by pledging to deliver 58,000 tons,
but all other donors have offered only a total of 20,000
tons.
The last scheduled shipment of American food aid
will arrive in June and no additional shipments are
planned. Even if emergency relief supplies were approved
immediately, they would not arrive until late summer,
and the two to three months' i tion in the supply
line could be disastrous.
9
_-Top--Seeret-
21 April 1980
?TOD Sccr
NIGERIA: Labor Restiveness
Nigeria's urban workers, who number over a million,
are growing more frustrated and more militant. Wage
negotiations between the central labor organization and
the government have passed labor's strike deadline as
the government resists inflationary wage demands. One
of Nigeria's 42 industrial unions has walked out in
defiance of national labor leaders and three more are
threatening walkouts. Labor stability is crucial to
Nigeria's civilian government, and President Shagari is
heavily committed to improving the lot of the urban
workers.
Wages have been frozen since 1975 despite steep
inflation and deteriorating living conditions. Nigerian
workers feel overdue for a larger share of the new oil
wealth, and the new oil and gas workers' union has the
potential to shut down Nigeria's oil industry. If
wildcat strikes ?ain ?round, police forces would be
stretched thin.
GREECE: Presidential Election
Prime Minister Karamanlis announced over the week-
end that he "could" be a candidate for the presidency
when Parliament commences balloting on Wednesday pro-
vided the election is not politicized and the office
thereby demeaned. The equivocal nature of Karamanlis'
declaration is an attempt to outmaneuver the opposition
since it is widely expected that he would be a highly
"political" executive. Karamanlis hopes that this move
will force leftist opposition leader Papandreou to
rescind his boycott of the election and permit moderates
in his party to vote for Karamanlis. Karamanlis then
could be elected on the first or second round--when a
two-thirds majority is required--without resorting to a
less stringent but embarrassing third round that would
leave him vulnerable to the charge that he does not have
an electorate-wide mandate. Even if Karamanlis' ploy
fails, it will assist his candidacy in the event that he
still falls short and a mandatory national parliamentary
election is called.
10
21 April 1980
Secret
CHINA: IMF Membership
China, which replaced Taiwan in the International
Monetary Fund last week, is now eligible to join the
World Bank and its affiliates. IMF membership also
enables China to obtain immediate financial assistance
in case of balance-of-payments problems and to gain
access to development loans. China probably will not
be able to get low-interest, long-term aid before 1984
because most current development funds have already been
lent to other developing countries. Beijing will assume
the current Taiwan IMF quota of approximately $700 million
equivalent.
21 April 1980
SPECIAL ANALYSIS
JAMAICA: Election Prospects
The moderate Jamaica Labor Party is strongly favored to defeat
Prime Minister Manley's People's National Party in the election
this summer. Although the combination of unprecedented radical
control of the ruling party and a growing potential for social
unrest could prompt leftists to attempt a power grab illegally, we
believe that Manley would discourage such a course. The chance of
success is low, and he probably is more inclined to see the radicals
regroup behind him in effective opposition to a Jamaica Labor Party
government.
In the event of major unrest, Manley, spurred by
his leftist advisers, could attempt to impose a state of
emergency that would restrict the Jamaica Labor Party's
campaign and entrench the Prime Minister. The Manley
government--or radicals who could subsequently push him
from power--might then seek large-scale security assis-
tance from Cuba.
The union-based Jamaica Labor Party now appears
powerful enough, however, to block the radicals from
retaining power--with or without Manley--even if they
were to try to impose a state of emergency. The security
forces, moreover, are mindful of the political purposes
of the state of emergency imposed before the elections
of 1976 and are wary of any attempt by the Prime Minister
and the radicals to entrap them.
The Radicals
Since 1974, Manley has encouraged People's National
Party radicals to increase their influence in the party
and to build grassroots support for a leftward shift in
12
?Tap
--continued
21 April 1980
-Top ccrc
government policy. Moderates have nonetheless dominated
the cabinet and controlled the country's economic policy
for most of Manley's administration, even though he
eventually appointed five leftists to the cabinet.
In recent weeks, however, Manley has yielded unprece-
dented influence to leftists, and they now control the
key ministries of finance and national security. Although
they will provide the Prime Minister with considerable
political talent, they appear to lack both the organiza-
tional resources and the popular support to win the
election or to stage a coup.
Manley will join the leftists in the election cam-
paign to make the International Monetary Fund a scapegoat
for seven years of economic decline under his administra-
tion. Last month he accepted a radical-authorized pro-
posal to break with the IMF and to begin using an alter-
native plan that has virtually no chance of easing
Jamaica's foreign exchange crunch.
Libya has yet to provide a single installment of
its promised $50 million loan to Jamaica, and Venezuela--
which Manley apparently hoped would be his trump card--
has refused to speed up the implementation of a special
oil facility for Jamaica. In fact, Manley probably does
not believe the anti-IMF tactic will lead to a workable
strategy of economic development for the island.
Recognizing his position, the Prime Minister is
likely to be looking beyond defeat in the election to
an early constitutional return to power. Although senti-
ment among the radicals is less certain, they probably
will stick with Manley as the Jamaica Labor Party cam-
paign picks up momentum and further exposes their weak
popular support
13
--continued
21 April April 1980
Too Secre
The Security Forces
Jamaica's 2,000-member Army and, to a lesser extent,
its 6,000-member police force remain influenced by a
British-instilled tradition of institutional political
neutrality. The loyalties of the members are divided
between the two major parties.
Like most Jamaican institutions, the security
forces are "hostage" to the country's entrenched two-
party system. Although Manley has tried to politicize
them, the Jamaica Labor Party has never lost reliable
contacts elped to expose the Prime Minister's
efforts.
Nevertheless, both the police and military are being
hurt by budget cuts and by increasingly high attrition
resulting from Jamaica's economic deterioration. Anti-
Manley sentiment among the members of the security forces
is strong and most would be wary of any attempt by the
Prime Minister to use them to secure his political posi-
tion.
If economic decline over the next several months
leads to an actual breakdown of law and order, however,
we would expect the security forces to intervene on
behalf of the constitutional government--a situation
that Manley might be able to exploit politically. On
the other hand, the Jamaica Labor Party now probably is
strong enough in the streets as well as at the polls to
upset a t by Manley to perpetuate himself in
power.
The security forces as a whole appear to pose no
threat to Jamaican democracy, but the potential exists
for the left, with nearly guaranteed cooperation from
Manley's opportunistic Minister of National Security,
Dudley Thompson, to radicalize a small core of officers
and men. In an atmosphere of social and economic dis-
order, they eventually might prevail against a disorga-
nized and ill-equipped majority.
14
--continued
Top SccicL
21 April 1980
Independent radicals, led by Trevor Munroe who heads
Jamaica's principal Communist party, might also even-
tually attempt to seize control. In September 1978, the
Jamaican police raided and destroyed several guerrilla
camps linked to Munroe. At this time, however, such a
Coup effort would have only a small chance of success.
15
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21 April 1980
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